Predictions

Sat, Jun 6, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 15

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Indiana FeverAway

96.6

Record: 22-12 | 4th in standingsL10 Record: 8-2

New York LibertyHome

92.6

Record: 22-14 | 6th in standingsL10 Record: 8-2

Total

189.2

📺 CBS, Paramount+

Game lines unavailable: No event for IND @ NYL

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

IND

Caitlin Clark

Injury impact on predictions19 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
IND	Tyasha Harris	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.3	1.0	5.7	6.0	+5.8%	1.1	1.1	+0.9%	2.6	2.7	+3.9%	12.0	12.6	+5.0%
IND	Raven Johnson	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.3	1.0	3.2	3.4	+5.9%	1.7	1.7	+0.6%	1.2	1.3	+5.9%	7.5	7.9	+5.3%
IND	Lexie Hull	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.1	1.0	5.0	5.2	+4.4%	2.9	2.9	+1.4%	0.8	0.8	0.0%	11.5	11.9	+3.2%
IND	Myisha Hines-Allen	Teammates out: +0.4 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.4	1.0	2.9	2.9	+1.7%	2.4	2.5	+0.8%	1.0	1.0	-2.0%	8.9	9.0	+0.7%
IND	Monique Billings	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.3	1.0	7.3	7.3	+0.3%	4.1	4.1	+0.5%	1.0	0.9	-4.1%	15.9	15.9	-0.1%
IND	Makayla Timpson	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.3	1.0	5.4	5.5	+0.6%	5.4	5.4	+0.7%	0.6	0.6	-3.4%	15.6	15.6	+0.3%
IND	Caitlin Clark	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	22.5	22.3	-1.1%	3.5	3.5	-0.9%	8.6	8.2	-5.0%	42.2	41.2	-2.4%
IND	Aliyah Boston	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.0	16.9	-1.1%	8.4	8.3	-1.0%	3.3	3.1	-4.9%	37.3	36.6	-1.7%
IND	Kelsey Mitchell	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	26.7	26.4	-1.1%	2.0	1.9	-1.0%	2.4	2.3	-5.0%	35.8	35.2	-1.6%
IND	Sophie Cunningham	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.7	7.6	-1.2%	2.1	2.0	-1.0%	1.1	1.0	-4.8%	13.9	13.7	-1.6%
NYL	Pauline Astier	Teammates out: +3.1 min, 12% usage boost	3.1	1.1	8.8	8.9	+1.2%	2.0	2.0	+1.0%	3.5	3.7	+4.6%	18.1	18.5	+2.5%
NYL	Satou Sabally	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 9% usage boost	2.2	1.1	12.0	12.0	+0.3%	3.2	3.2	0.0%	2.3	2.4	+4.4%	19.8	20.0	+1.0%
NYL	Rebecca Allen	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 9% usage boost	2.2	1.1	7.7	7.7	+0.3%	2.9	2.9	0.0%	0.8	0.8	+3.8%	15.6	15.8	+1.2%
NYL	Marine Johannes	Teammates out: +2.0 min, 8% usage boost	2.0	1.1	9.2	9.3	+0.3%	1.7	1.7	0.0%	1.8	1.8	+1.1%	16.5	16.6	+0.5%
NYL	Rebekah Gardner	Teammates out: +2.0 min, 8% usage boost	2.0	1.1	5.2	5.2	+0.2%	2.9	2.9	0.0%	1.3	1.3	+4.8%	11.8	12.0	+1.5%
NYL	Breanna Stewart	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 7% usage boost	1.8	1.1	20.3	20.8	+2.6%	7.3	7.5	+2.7%	3.5	3.5	-2.5%	39.3	39.9	+1.4%
NYL	Leonie Fiebich	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 6% usage boost	1.6	1.1	10.7	10.8	+1.9%	2.6	2.6	+1.5%	1.9	1.9	-2.6%	19.6	19.8	+0.7%
NYL	Han Xu	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 3% usage boost	0.9	1.0	7.0	6.9	-0.6%	3.1	3.1	-1.0%	0.7	0.7	-1.5%	14.2	14.1	-0.8%
NYL	Jonquel Jones	Teammates out: +0.5 min, 2% usage boost	0.5	1.0	15.5	14.6	-5.7%	10.5	10.2	-2.4%	3.4	3.2	-6.2%	38.8	37.1	-4.5%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Caitlin Clark	starter	29.1	22.3	3.5	8.2	1.0	0.5	4.2	3.0	33.9	41.2	high	20%	0%
Aliyah Boston	starter	26.6	16.9	8.3	3.1	1.6	1.1	2.5	1.3	28.3	36.6	high	20%	20%
Kelsey Mitchell	star	31.6	26.4	1.9	2.3	1.0	0.1	1.7	3.2	30.6	35.2	high	20%	0%
Monique Billings	rotation	16.4	7.3	4.1	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.1	12.4	15.9	low	40%	10%
Makayla Timpson	bench	21.8	5.5	5.4	0.6	0.6	0.9	1.1	0.0	11.4	15.6	low	20%	0%
Sophie Cunningham	rotation	21.1	7.6	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.5	1.7	10.7	13.7	medium	10%	40%
Tyasha Harris	bench	15.5	6.0	1.1	2.7	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.9	9.8	12.6	low	20%	0%
Lexie Hull	rotation	17.8	5.2	2.9	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.8	0.9	8.9	11.9	medium	0%	30%
Myisha Hines-Allen	rotation	10.6	2.9	2.5	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.8	0.3	6.4	9.0	medium	0%	40%
Raven Johnson	bench	9.8	3.4	1.7	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.8	0.3	6.4	7.9	low	10%	50%
Bree Hall	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Grace VanSlooten	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Mercedes Russell	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Breanna Stewart	star	31.2	20.8	7.5	3.5	1.3	1.2	1.8	0.8	31.8	39.9	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Caitlin Clark — 29.15 MIN · 22.26 PTS · 41.16 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	21.90	23.20	26.30	16.33	23.48	22.26
REB	3.90	3.00	3.50	4.33	3.71	3.48
AST	8.27	9.80	9.40	8.67	9.04	8.17
FG3M	2.70	3.00	3.40	2.67	3.05	2.95
FTM	5.53	4.20	7.30	3.00	5.86	5.59
STL	0.97	1.20	1.40	0.33	1.08	1.00
BLK	0.57	0.20	0.60	0.33	0.51	0.46
TOV	4.63	4.60	4.80	4.67	4.55	4.19
MIN	30.53	35.45	32.70	31.66	32.18	29.15

Factors

Games played: 30
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.013
Minute scale: 0.906
Def adj (PTS): 0.997
Opp DefRtg: 107.60 vs league 107.90
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Breanna Stewart — 31.16 MIN · 20.79 PTS · 39.86 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.69	16.60	19.60	25.00	19.91	20.79
REB	8.17	5.80	7.20	7.67	7.31	7.55
AST	3.20	3.60	3.80	3.33	3.52	3.46
FG3M	0.80	0.60	0.80

Jonquel Jones — 29.41 MIN · 14.64 PTS · 37.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.71	15.40	14.40	11.67	14.52	14.64
REB	9.43	12.40	10.00	9.33	9.92	10.23
AST	2.86	3.40	3.70	2.67	3.21	3.19
FG3M	1.83	2.00	1.70

Aliyah Boston — 26.59 MIN · 16.85 PTS · 36.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.94	16.80	16.10	15.67	16.40	16.85
REB	8.48	9.60	7.90	7.67	8.18	8.32
AST	2.97	3.40	3.40	3.00	3.18	3.12
FG3M	1.23	1.40	1.10

Kelsey Mitchell — 31.64 MIN · 26.39 PTS · 35.19 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	24.29	28.60	28.30	27.33	26.61	26.39
REB	1.71	2.20	1.80	3.33	1.98	1.94
AST	2.71	2.80	2.10	2.00	2.39	2.26
FG3M	2.88	3.20	3.40

Satou Sabally — 18.33 MIN · 12.00 PTS · 20.01 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.38	10.20	10.80	13.00	10.52	12.00
REB	2.77	2.40	3.00	5.00	2.85	3.20
AST	1.92	3.40	2.10	1.00	2.02	2.38
FG3M	1.54	1.60	1.60

Leonie Fiebich — 28.37 MIN · 10.85 PTS · 19.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.00	12.60	11.00	4.00	10.38	10.85
REB	2.57	1.60	2.80	4.00	2.58	2.65
AST	1.86	1.80	1.80	2.00	1.86	1.85
FG3M	1.86	2.60	2.20

Pauline Astier — 21.17 MIN · 8.92 PTS · 18.51 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.39	7.00	8.50	8.00	8.59	8.92
REB	2.39	2.00	1.40	2.67	2.00	2.05
AST	3.50	3.60	3.30	3.67	3.43	3.66
FG3M	0.42	0.00	0.20

Marine Johannes — 18.05 MIN · 9.27 PTS · 16.55 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.30	12.40	9.20	9.33	9.70	9.27
REB	2.18	1.40	1.20	2.00	1.76	1.66
AST	2.48	2.20	1.60	0.67	1.93	1.84
FG3M	2.30	3.20	2.40

Monique Billings — 16.44 MIN · 7.35 PTS · 15.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.45	7.40	9.80	11.00	8.79	7.35
REB	5.24	3.40	5.10	5.00	4.96	4.10
AST	1.12	1.00	1.30	1.33	1.17	0.93
FG3M	0.15	0.00	0.00

Rebecca Allen — 23.69 MIN · 7.73 PTS · 15.79 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.19	11.00	8.80	5.50	6.48	7.73
REB	2.19	3.40	3.10	1.50	2.50	2.94
AST	0.67	0.80	0.70	0.50	0.68	0.83
FG3M	1.10	2.40	1.90

Makayla Timpson — 21.77 MIN · 5.47 PTS · 15.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.39	6.00	6.30	1.67	4.93	5.47
REB	4.27	6.00	5.90	4.00	4.93	5.41
AST	0.52	0.80	0.60	0.00	0.53	0.56
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Han Xu — 14.63 MIN · 6.91 PTS · 14.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.03	7.60	8.20	4.00	6.82	6.91
REB	2.47	3.20	3.50	4.33	3.07	3.06
AST	0.72	0.80	0.60	0.67	0.66	0.66
FG3M	0.83	0.60	1.20

Sophie Cunningham — 21.07 MIN · 7.62 PTS · 13.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.85	5.00	7.00	8.33	7.80	7.62
REB	2.24	1.60	2.20	2.33	2.12	2.05
AST	1.21	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.07	1.00
FG3M	1.73	1.20	1.50

Tyasha Harris — 15.49 MIN · 6.01 PTS · 12.56 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.48	3.60	4.60	6.00	4.66	6.01
REB	1.10	0.60	0.70	1.00	0.93	1.13
AST	2.10	1.00	2.20	3.50	2.13	2.68
FG3M	0.66	1.00	0.80

Rebekah Gardner — 13.35 MIN · 5.19 PTS · 12.03 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.21	5.60	6.10	5.00	5.65	5.19
REB	2.56	3.80	3.60	5.00	3.17	2.87
AST	1.26	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.38	1.32
FG3M	0.26	0.20	0.30

Lexie Hull — 17.81 MIN · 5.19 PTS · 11.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.32	3.40	3.80	6.00	4.69	5.19
REB	3.12	3.00	2.50	3.00	2.76	2.92
AST	0.74	0.60	0.70	1.33	0.75	0.78
FG3M	0.82	0.60	0.70

Myisha Hines-Allen — 10.57 MIN · 2.94 PTS · 9.00 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.77	1.80	2.10	3.33	3.08	2.94
REB	3.03	2.40	2.60	2.00	2.63	2.46
AST	1.47	0.60	0.70	0.33	1.08	0.99
FG3M	0.23	0.20	0.30

Raven Johnson — 9.78 MIN · 3.41 PTS · 7.89 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.39	0.80	1.70	2.67	2.69	3.41
REB	1.90	0.20	0.90	1.00	1.43	1.70
AST	1.32	0.20	0.30	1.33	1.00	1.26
FG3M	0.35	0.00	0.10

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

IND

NYL

Best value plays

IND

NYL

Per-player detail