Predictions

Thu, Jun 11, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 15

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Phoenix MercuryAway

84.5

Record: 13-22 | 10th in standingsL10 Record: 5-5

Dallas WingsHome

91.8

Record: 20-15 | 8th in standingsL10 Record: 3-7

Total

176.3

📺 Prime Video

Game lines unavailable: No event for PHX @ DAL

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

PHX

Marta Suarez

Injury impact on predictions9 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
DAL	Aziaha James	Teammates out: +3.2 min, 8% usage boost	3.2	1.1	6.8	7.1	+4.6%	2.6	2.6	+0.4%	1.3	1.6	+21.5%	13.9	15.2	+8.7%
DAL	Awak Kuier	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 3% usage boost	1.4	1.0	7.1	7.5	+5.5%	3.8	3.9	+1.6%	1.2	1.2	+3.3%	17.4	18.0	+3.6%
DAL	Alanna Smith	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 3% usage boost	1.4	1.0	6.1	6.4	+5.4%	4.2	4.3	+1.7%	0.9	1.0	+3.2%	14.7	15.2	+3.5%
DAL	Maddy Siegrist	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 2% usage boost	0.9	1.0	6.6	6.9	+4.4%	2.8	2.9	+0.7%	1.1	1.1	+0.9%	13.7	14.1	+2.7%
DAL	Alysha Clark	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 2% usage boost	0.9	1.0	3.1	3.3	+4.5%	1.7	1.7	+0.6%	0.8	0.8	+3.8%	7.3	7.6	+3.1%
DAL	Li Yueru	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 1% usage boost	0.3	1.0	4.3	4.4	+1.2%	3.1	3.1	+0.6%	0.5	0.5	-1.9%	9.9	9.9	+0.3%
PHX	Jovana Nogic	Teammates out: +3.5 min, 0% usage boost	3.5	1.0	8.6	9.1	+6.2%	1.0	1.0	+3.0%	1.4	1.5	+11.8%	13.1	14.1	+7.6%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +3.5 min, 0% usage boost	3.5	1.0	6.2	6.6	+6.3%	1.6	1.6	+1.9%	1.7	1.9	+16.9%	11.5	12.6	+9.1%
PHX	Kyara Linskens	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost	1.3	1.0	3.6	3.8	+5.3%	3.4	3.4	+1.5%	0.9	1.0	+7.4%	12.6	13.3	+5.3%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Alyssa Thomas	star	37.4	16.4	8.9	8.8	1.4	0.6	4.0	0.0	34.1	42.7	high	10%	30%
Kahleah Copper	star	36.2	22.2	3.4	2.5	0.8	0.1	3.1	1.8	28.0	31.1	high	10%	30%
DeWanna Bonner	starter	28.8	12.1	7.2	1.8	1.4	0.9	0.7	1.3	21.1	28.8	medium	20%	10%
Natasha Mack	starter	22.0	8.3	6.4	1.2	0.6	0.9	1.0	0.1	16.0	20.7	high	0%	50%
Noemie Brochant	rotation	29.3	8.8	2.2	2.0	1.4	0.2	1.2	1.3	13.0	17.8	low	10%	20%
Jovana Nogic	rotation	16.9	9.1	1.0	1.5	0.6	0.0	1.2	1.7	11.6	14.1	high	10%	30%
Kyara Linskens	bench	13.6	3.8	3.4	1.0	0.7	1.2	0.7	0.5	8.2	13.3	low	10%	40%
Lexi Held	bench	18.5	6.6	1.6	1.9	0.4	0.2	1.0	0.9	10.1	12.6	low	0%	70%
Kelsey Plum	star	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.3	medium	0%	0%
Sami Whitcomb	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Valeriane Ayayi	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Marta Suarez	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Shay Ciezki	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Paige Bueckers	star	32.3	20.5	4.0	5.2	0.9	0.3	2.2	1.8	29.6	35.5	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Alyssa Thomas — 37.38 MIN · 16.37 PTS · 42.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	6.00	14.84	16.37
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	9.00	8.10	8.94
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	10.00	8.33	8.81
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	3.61	4.40	4.50	0.00	3.89	4.24
STL	1.39	1.20	1.20	2.00	1.29	1.37
BLK	0.48	0.60	0.70	0.00	0.56	0.59
TOV	3.61	4.00	3.50	6.00	3.65	4.00
MIN	33.99	34.89	35.38	31.95	34.58	37.38

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.993
Minute scale: 1.081
Def adj (PTS): 0.999
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.32

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.16

Paige Bueckers — 32.33 MIN · 20.47 PTS · 35.52 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.45	21.60	19.90	31.00	20.84	20.47
REB	4.12	3.80	3.90	6.00	4.09	4.02
AST	5.85	5.40	4.90	5.00	5.43	5.15
FG3M	1.76	1.80	1.80

Jessica Shepard — 29.60 MIN · 12.95 PTS · 35.28 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.21	10.20	12.80	17.00	13.04	12.95
REB	11.36	7.40	10.60	10.00	10.45	10.39
AST	5.18	3.80	5.10	7.00	4.98	4.78
FG3M	0.00	0.00

Kahleah Copper — 36.21 MIN · 22.22 PTS · 31.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	13.00	19.98	22.22
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	2.00	3.02	3.36
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.31	2.45
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

DeWanna Bonner — 28.83 MIN · 12.09 PTS · 28.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	9.00	11.65	12.09
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	7.00	6.92	7.18
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.00	1.79	1.79
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Azzi Fudd — 35.63 MIN · 14.07 PTS · 25.18 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	17.00	12.86	14.07
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	3.00	1.65	1.81
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	4.00	1.98	2.09
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Arike Ogunbowale — 28.13 MIN · 14.62 PTS · 25.12 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.80	13.20	17.80	2.00	15.66	14.62
REB	3.14	3.00	3.60	6.00	3.48	3.26
AST	3.09	3.20	4.00	1.00	3.43	3.09
FG3M	1.71	0.80	1.50

Natasha Mack — 21.97 MIN · 8.34 PTS · 20.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	8.00	7.33	8.34
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	3.00	5.63	6.41
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	2.00	1.14	1.24
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Awak Kuier — 18.81 MIN · 7.51 PTS · 17.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.63	7.00	5.90	4.00	5.96	7.51
REB	3.09	3.60	3.00	3.00	3.21	3.85
AST	0.94	1.20	0.90	1.00	1.01	1.24
FG3M	0.59	0.80	0.40

Noemie Brochant — 29.26 MIN · 8.77 PTS · 17.82 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	4.00	6.80	8.77
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.00	1.73	2.22
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.00	1.64	2.02
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Alanna Smith — 16.89 MIN · 6.39 PTS · 15.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.70	12.80	8.80	2.00	6.79	6.39
REB	4.00	8.60	5.70	5.00	4.77	4.27
AST	1.07	1.40	0.90	1.00	1.07	0.98
FG3M	0.59	1.40	1.00

Aziaha James — 12.11 MIN · 7.11 PTS · 15.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	7.00	6.11	7.11
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	1.00	2.40	2.64
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	4.00	1.18	1.58
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Maddy Siegrist — 14.06 MIN · 6.88 PTS · 14.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.09	5.20	6.50	0.00	6.01	6.88
REB	2.69	2.80	2.60	2.00	2.63	2.86
AST	0.84	1.40	1.20	0.00	0.98	1.08
FG3M	0.78	0.60	1.00

Jovana Nogic — 16.89 MIN · 9.08 PTS · 14.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.38	6.80	7.40	7.00	8.90	9.08
REB	1.06	1.00	1.00	2.00	1.05	1.03
AST	1.63	1.80	1.30	1.00	1.43	1.52
FG3M	2.00	1.00	1.40

Kyara Linskens — 13.59 MIN · 3.80 PTS · 13.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	1.40	2.40	0.00	2.70	3.80
REB	2.44	2.60	2.50	0.00	2.56	3.42
AST	0.67	1.40	0.70	0.00	0.72	1.02
FG3M	0.39	0.20	0.30

Lexi Held — 18.52 MIN · 6.60 PTS · 12.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	17.00	4.25	6.60
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	4.00	1.08	1.59
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.14	1.94
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Li Yueru — 14.66 MIN · 4.37 PTS · 9.89 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.31	3.40	3.30	3.00	3.22	4.37
REB	2.69	2.00	2.10	1.00	2.33	3.12
AST	0.46	0.00	0.40	0.00	0.41	0.53
FG3M	0.27	0.20	0.20

Alysha Clark — 14.20 MIN · 3.28 PTS · 7.57 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.14	2.20	2.60	0.00	2.33	3.28
REB	1.23	1.80	1.30	0.00	1.28	1.71
AST	0.50	0.60	0.60	1.00	0.58	0.81
FG3M	0.36	0.20	0.40