Predictions

Thu, Jun 11, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 15

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Las Vegas AcesAway

95.2

Record: 24-12 | 3rd in standingsL10 Record: 6-4📺 Vegas 34

Portland FireHome

90.4

Record: 14-20 | 9th in standingsL10 Record: 4-6📺 Rose City SportsNet™ (RCSN)

Total

185.6

Game lines unavailable: No event for LVA @ PDX

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

LVA

Injury impact on predictions17 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
LVA	Jewell Loyd	Teammates out: +4.1 min, 8% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.1	1.1	7.8	8.3	+6.2%	2.3	2.4	+2.2%	1.5	1.7	+9.2%	15.6	16.6	+6.7%
LVA	Stephanie Talbot	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.5	1.0	3.2	3.4	+5.2%	2.2	2.3	+1.3%	0.9	0.9	+3.3%	9.4	9.8	+3.7%
LVA	NaLyssa Smith	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.2	1.0	13.1	13.7	+4.4%	7.8	7.9	+2.1%	1.2	1.2	0.0%	27.0	27.8	+3.0%
LVA	Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	4.8	5.0	+4.4%	2.3	2.3	+0.4%	0.5	0.5	+4.3%	10.1	10.4	+3.5%
LVA	Brianna Turner	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.5	+4.1%	2.6	2.6	0.0%	0.3	0.4	+2.9%	8.1	8.3	+2.5%
LVA	Kierstan Bell	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	2.6	2.7	+4.2%	1.8	1.8	0.0%	0.6	0.6	+3.2%	7.0	7.2	+2.7%
LVA	A'ja Wilson	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	28.7	28.0	-2.5%	10.0	9.9	-1.4%	3.4	3.2	-5.0%	54.1	51.1	-5.5%
LVA	Jackie Young	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	23.0	22.4	-2.5%	4.7	4.6	-1.5%	7.4	7.0	-5.0%	42.2	40.9	-3.2%
LVA	Chelsea Gray	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	13.2	12.8	-2.6%	2.8	2.8	-1.4%	6.9	6.5	-4.9%	29.5	28.4	-3.6%
PDX	Frieda Buhner	Teammates out: +6.0 min, 4% usage boost	6.0	1.0	9.0	9.2	+1.9%	3.2	3.2	0.0%	1.1	1.3	+21.0%	15.9	16.6	+4.6%
PDX	Teja Oblak	Teammates out: +4.6 min, 3% usage boost	4.6	1.0	7.1	7.2	+1.0%	1.8	1.8	-0.5%	3.7	4.3	+16.6%	15.8	17.0	+7.8%
PDX	Serah Williams	Teammates out: +4.5 min, 3% usage boost	4.5	1.0	5.8	5.8	+0.9%	2.8	2.8	-0.7%	0.9	1.1	+18.7%	11.9	12.5	+4.9%
PDX	Karlie Samuelson	Teammates out: +4.4 min, 3% usage boost	4.4	1.0	6.2	6.3	+1.9%	1.7	1.7	0.0%	1.2	1.4	+11.6%	12.0	12.5	+3.9%
PDX	Emily Engstler	Teammates out: +4.3 min, 3% usage boost	4.3	1.0	10.6	10.9	+2.9%	6.4	6.5	+1.1%	2.5	2.6	+2.4%	27.9	28.5	+2.0%
PDX	Luisa Geiselsoder	Teammates out: +2.4 min, 1% usage boost	2.4	1.0	4.1	4.2	+2.0%	2.4	2.4	+0.4%	1.0	1.0	-1.0%	9.6	9.7	+0.7%
PDX	Megan DiLeo	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 1% usage boost	1.7	1.0	20.5	20.9	+1.9%	6.6	6.7	+1.2%	1.3	1.2	-7.5%	33.9	34.0	+0.4%
PDX	Carla Leite	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 1% usage boost	1.3	1.0	19.8	19.7	-0.3%	2.6	2.6	+1.2%	8.2	7.5	-8.9%	35.4	34.1	-3.7%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
A'ja Wilson	star	34.0	28.0	9.9	3.2	1.4	2.0	2.7	1.0	41.1	51.1	high	10%	20%
Jackie Young	star	34.3	22.4	4.6	7.0	0.9	0.3	2.9	2.7	34.0	40.9	high	10%	10%
Chelsea Gray	star	34.1	12.8	2.8	6.5	1.2	0.2	2.8	2.0	22.1	28.4	medium	10%	20%
NaLyssa Smith	rotation	28.0	13.7	7.9	1.2	0.8	0.6	1.0	0.0	22.9	27.8	medium	0%	40%
Jewell Loyd	starter	25.3	8.3	2.4	1.7	1.1	0.1	1.0	1.7	12.3	16.6	medium	10%	30%
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	bench	9.8	5.0	2.3	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.2	7.8	10.4	low	30%	0%
Stephanie Talbot	rotation	14.7	3.4	2.3	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.5	6.6	9.8	medium	10%	10%
Brianna Turner	bench	16.9	2.5	2.6	0.4	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.0	5.5	8.3	low	10%	0%
Kierstan Bell	bench	10.8	2.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.6	5.2	7.2	low	10%	0%
Justine Pissott	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Dana Evans	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Mai Yamamoto	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Ta'Niya Latson	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Carla Leite	rotation	30.4	19.7	2.6	7.5	0.6	0.1	4.0	1.1	29.8	34.1	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

A'ja Wilson — 34.03 MIN · 28.00 PTS · 51.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	26.09	23.00	27.30	30.67	26.90	28.00
REB	9.61	9.40	9.60	9.67	9.50	9.88
AST	3.06	2.20	3.40	3.67	3.20	3.22
FG3M	1.00	0.80	1.00	1.00	0.99	1.03
FTM	6.73	6.20	8.10	11.67	7.88	8.16
STL	1.45	1.20	1.30	1.67	1.39	1.38
BLK	2.03	2.20	2.00	1.33	1.99	1.99
TOV	2.48	3.40	2.60	2.33	2.59	2.69
MIN	32.20	34.63	33.83	32.03	33.16	34.03

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.996
Minute scale: 1.026
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Jackie Young — 34.30 MIN · 22.41 PTS · 40.86 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.43	22.00	23.40	20.67	21.19	22.41
REB	4.40	2.80	4.70	4.67	4.38	4.62
AST	6.71	6.40	6.50	7.67	6.84	7.00
FG3M	2.23	3.20	2.80

Carla Leite — 30.36 MIN · 19.69 PTS · 34.06 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.48	17.20	16.20	14.00	15.59	19.69
REB	2.26	2.00	1.90	2.00	2.06	2.61
AST	6.23	7.80	7.10	5.33	6.50	7.45
FG3M	0.84	1.20	0.90

Megan DiLeo — 35.39 MIN · 20.85 PTS · 34.01 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.88	14.60	15.10	16.00	14.19	20.85
REB	4.19	6.20	5.00	3.67	4.67	6.72
AST	1.00	1.40	1.00	0.33	0.93	1.24
FG3M	1.25	1.20	1.40

Bridget Carleton — 35.04 MIN · 18.05 PTS · 33.74 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.64	17.60	17.30	11.67	15.83	18.05
REB	4.52	8.40	6.50	3.67	5.28	6.15
AST	2.12	1.80	2.40	2.33	2.22	2.32
FG3M	2.88	3.60	3.80

Emily Engstler — 28.54 MIN · 10.89 PTS · 28.48 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.03	8.20	8.40	8.00	8.59	10.89
REB	5.26	5.00	4.70	7.67	5.28	6.50
AST	2.06	2.00	2.50	0.67	2.08	2.61
FG3M	1.03	1.00	1.00

Chelsea Gray — 34.13 MIN · 12.81 PTS · 28.43 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	9.60	12.20	18.00	12.53	12.81
REB	3.23	2.60	2.20	2.33	2.70	2.75
AST	7.06	6.40	6.20	5.67	6.62	6.55
FG3M	1.86	1.60	1.60

NaLyssa Smith — 27.96 MIN · 13.72 PTS · 27.79 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.97	11.00	11.50	14.00	12.00	13.72
REB	6.46	9.60	7.40	6.00	7.19	7.93
AST	0.94	1.80	1.10	1.50	1.11	1.20
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Teja Oblak — 15.13 MIN · 7.20 PTS · 17.04 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.92	6.40	5.70	8.67	6.08	7.20
REB	1.62	2.20	1.40	1.33	1.59	1.83
AST	3.00	4.00	3.10	3.33	3.16	4.29
FG3M	0.81	0.80	0.60

Frieda Buhner — 19.15 MIN · 9.16 PTS · 16.65 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.39	6.60	7.50	8.00	7.09	9.16
REB	2.23	2.80	3.00	2.00	2.57	3.22
AST	0.74	0.60	1.00	0.67	0.83	1.27
FG3M	0.81	1.20	1.30

Jewell Loyd — 25.32 MIN · 8.33 PTS · 16.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.06	7.80	7.40	6.33	7.70	8.33
REB	2.32	1.60	2.30	2.67	2.29	2.35
AST	1.44	1.60	1.50	1.67	1.51	1.67
FG3M	1.71	1.40	1.50

Serah Williams — 17.06 MIN · 5.82 PTS · 12.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.23	2.60	5.50	2.67	4.41	5.82
REB	2.43	1.40	2.40	1.00	2.20	2.82
AST	0.57	1.00	0.80	1.00	0.70	1.08
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Karlie Samuelson — 19.12 MIN · 6.30 PTS · 12.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.64	5.00	6.20	1.33	4.99	6.30
REB	1.32	1.80	1.50	0.67	1.38	1.69
AST	0.91	0.80	1.00	1.33	0.98	1.35
FG3M	1.09	1.40	1.60

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus — 9.85 MIN · 5.01 PTS · 10.44 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.91	3.80	6.00	2.00	4.96	5.01
REB	2.48	2.80	2.60	1.00	2.44	2.34
AST	0.61	0.00	0.40	0.00	0.49	0.49
FG3M	0.17	0.00	0.20

Stephanie Talbot — 14.65 MIN · 3.41 PTS · 9.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.36	2.60	2.90	3.33	3.10	3.41
REB	2.50	1.20	1.10	4.00	2.16	2.26
AST	1.00	0.00	0.40	1.67	0.87	0.94
FG3M	0.44	0.40	0.40

Luisa Geiselsoder — 13.72 MIN · 4.15 PTS · 9.70 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.48	1.20	3.70	3.00	3.91	4.15
REB	2.62	1.80	2.30	1.33	2.29	2.36
AST	1.29	0.60	0.90	0.00	0.99	1.01
FG3M	0.76	0.20	0.70

Brianna Turner — 16.91 MIN · 2.55 PTS · 8.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.76	1.60	2.60	3.33	2.19	2.55
REB	2.24	2.00	2.50	2.33	2.33	2.58
AST	0.24	0.40	0.40	0.33	0.31	0.36
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Kierstan Bell — 10.76 MIN · 2.70 PTS · 7.20 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.04	1.80	3.20	5.00	2.60	2.70
REB	1.61	2.00	1.80	4.00	1.85	1.82
AST	0.70	0.80	0.50	1.00	0.62	0.64
FG3M	0.43	0.40	0.70

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

LVA

PDX

Best value plays

LVA

PDX

Per-player detail