Predictions

Sat, Jun 13, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 15

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Los Angeles SparksAway

89.0

Record: 12-22 | 12th in standingsL10 Record: 2-8📺 Spectrum SportsNet

Phoenix MercuryHome

91.2

Record: 13-22 | 10th in standingsL10 Record: 5-5📺 Arizona's Family 3TV, Merc+

Total

180.2

Game lines unavailable: No event for LAS @ PHX

Injury report

1 Out applied to these projections.

LAS

Injury impact on predictions2 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
PHX	Jovana Nogic	Teammates out: +3.0 min, 0% usage boost	3.0	1.0	8.1	8.7	+6.9%	0.9	0.9	+2.2%	1.3	1.4	+9.0%	12.4	13.4	+7.6%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +3.0 min, 0% usage boost	3.0	1.0	5.2	5.5	+6.8%	1.4	1.4	+2.9%	1.6	1.8	+13.8%	10.1	11.0	+9.2%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Nneka Ogwumike	star	34.2	18.4	10.1	4.0	1.4	0.4	2.6	1.7	32.6	41.8	high	0%	30%
Dearica Hamby	starter	31.5	17.8	7.8	3.1	1.7	0.5	2.0	0.3	28.7	35.6	high	20%	30%
Rae Burrell	starter	33.0	18.6	2.9	3.2	1.0	0.6	2.7	2.3	24.7	30.0	medium	10%	30%
Erica Wheeler	starter	30.3	10.7	2.5	6.3	1.2	0.0	2.0	1.6	19.5	25.6	medium	20%	30%
Cameron Brink	rotation	20.3	10.1	6.3	1.7	0.5	2.1	2.5	1.0	18.1	25.1	high	0%	40%
Ariel Atkins	starter	31.7	9.5	3.4	3.7	2.1	0.5	1.6	1.7	16.6	24.5	medium	20%	20%
Chance Gray	bench	13.1	3.9	1.5	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.9	1.0	6.7	8.3	low	0%	30%
Kate Martin	deep	8.8	3.2	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.6	5.2	6.9	low	10%	50%
Monique Akoa Makani	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	low	0%	0%
Tonie Morgan	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Alissa Pili	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Emma Cannon	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Jihyun Park	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Alyssa Thomas	star	33.2	15.3	8.0	8.2	1.3	0.6	3.5	0.0	31.6	39.7	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Nneka Ogwumike — 34.18 MIN · 18.45 PTS · 41.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.85	15.00	15.80	14.50	15.89	18.45
REB	8.79	8.20	8.50	10.75	8.82	10.11
AST	3.09	3.60	3.60	3.50	3.47	4.00
FG3M	1.45	1.20	1.30	2.00	1.44	1.67
FTM	2.30	1.80	1.90	2.00	2.00	2.28
STL	1.18	1.40	1.40	0.50	1.25	1.43
BLK	0.39	0.20	0.30	0.75	0.38	0.43
TOV	1.85	3.20	2.80	2.50	2.29	2.60
MIN	31.28	30.97	30.62	32.56	31.04	34.18

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.101
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Alyssa Thomas — 33.18 MIN · 15.35 PTS · 39.69 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	17.00	15.44	15.35
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	8.00	8.11	8.03
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	10.75	8.66	8.20
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Dearica Hamby — 31.46 MIN · 17.81 PTS · 35.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.15	14.80	16.50	18.00	16.01	17.81
REB	7.32	5.40	6.80	8.75	7.09	7.79
AST	2.50	2.20	3.10	2.50	2.77	3.06
FG3M	0.26	0.20	0.20

Kelsey Plum — 29.21 MIN · 21.07 PTS · 33.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	23.92	20.71	21.07
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	2.17	2.29	2.32
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	6.42	5.37	5.21
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90

Rae Burrell — 33.04 MIN · 18.60 PTS · 30.00 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.12	18.60	17.10	18.75	16.41	18.60
REB	2.38	2.80	2.60	2.50	2.55	2.86
AST	2.47	3.00	3.20	2.75	2.88	3.24
FG3M	1.65	2.40	2.40

Kahleah Copper — 31.40 MIN · 20.43 PTS · 28.58 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	25.50	20.90	20.43
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	5.25	3.30	3.21
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	1.75	2.26	2.11
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

DeWanna Bonner — 25.88 MIN · 11.22 PTS · 26.92 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	9.75	11.61	11.22
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	5.00	6.76	6.51
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.75	1.84	1.69
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Erica Wheeler — 30.32 MIN · 10.69 PTS · 25.57 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.24	9.20	10.30	5.75	9.27	10.69
REB	2.03	3.00	2.30	1.50	2.19	2.49
AST	5.32	5.20	6.20	4.50	5.55	6.35
FG3M	1.26	1.60	1.60

Cameron Brink — 20.33 MIN · 10.08 PTS · 25.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.08	9.20	8.80	8.25	8.85	10.08
REB	4.92	6.60	6.00	5.75	5.59	6.29
AST	1.28	1.80	1.70	1.75	1.52	1.72
FG3M	0.84	0.60	0.90

Ariel Atkins — 31.72 MIN · 9.48 PTS · 24.47 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.78	5.00	8.50	9.25	8.24	9.48
REB	2.94	3.20	3.10	2.50	2.99	3.40
AST	2.94	3.40	3.70	2.50	3.26	3.72
FG3M	1.28	1.00	1.70

Natasha Mack — 19.06 MIN · 7.59 PTS · 19.31 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	10.00	7.61	7.59
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	7.00	5.88	5.85
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	2.00	1.22	1.16
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Noemie Brochant — 25.79 MIN · 8.26 PTS · 16.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	8.50	7.11	8.26
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.75	1.83	2.13
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.25	1.65	1.82
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Jovana Nogic — 15.79 MIN · 8.67 PTS · 13.37 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.38	6.80	7.40	9.50	9.05	8.67
REB	1.06	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.02	0.93
AST	1.63	1.80	1.30	2.00	1.50	1.45
FG3M	2.00	1.00	1.40

Lexi Held — 17.13 MIN · 5.50 PTS · 10.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	2.20	3.65	5.50
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	1.20	1.00	1.44
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	0.80	1.14	1.81
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Chance Gray — 13.05 MIN · 3.86 PTS · 8.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.77	2.40	3.30	2.00	2.86	3.86
REB	1.19	1.60	1.10	0.75	1.14	1.51
AST	0.94	0.80	1.30	0.25	1.02	1.37
FG3M	0.61	0.60	0.90

Kate Martin — 8.85 MIN · 3.22 PTS · 6.91 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.40	2.00	2.30	0.00	2.02	3.22
REB	0.93	1.60	1.20	0.00	0.95	1.50
AST	0.33	0.20	0.40	0.00	0.31	0.49
FG3M	0.47	0.20	0.40

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.953
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.055
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 16
h2h sample: 12 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.975
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.075
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.937
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.926
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.094
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 25
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.080
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.091
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 27
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.956
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.114
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 16
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 0.850
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 5 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.336
Def adj (PTS): 1.041
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.279
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 15
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.009
Minute scale: 1.513
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10