Predictions

Wed, Jun 17, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 16

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Minnesota LynxAway

95.9

Record: 29-7 | 1st in standingsL10 Record: 9-1📺 Victory+ (MIN)

Los Angeles SparksHome

85.3

Record: 12-22 | 12th in standingsL10 Record: 2-8📺 Spectrum SportsNet

Total

181.2

Game lines unavailable: No event for MIN @ LAS

Injury report

4 Out applied to these projections.

MIN

Injury impact on predictions16 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
LAS	Erica Wheeler	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.4	1.0	10.8	11.4	+5.2%	2.5	2.6	+2.4%	6.4	6.4	-0.2%	25.5	26.2	+2.7%
LAS	Ariel Atkins	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.4	1.0	8.5	8.9	+5.2%	3.1	3.1	+2.6%	3.7	3.7	-0.3%	22.3	22.9	+2.8%
LAS	Monique Akoa Makani	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.4	1.0	9.7	10.2	+5.4%	1.8	1.9	+2.2%	2.6	2.7	+0.8%	17.9	18.6	+3.8%
LAS	Chance Gray	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.1	1.0	3.6	3.8	+3.3%	1.4	1.4	+0.7%	1.4	1.4	+5.1%	8.0	8.2	+3.4%
LAS	Kate Martin	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.1	1.0	3.2	3.3	+3.4%	1.6	1.6	+0.6%	0.5	0.5	+10.2%	7.0	7.2	+4.3%
LAS	Nneka Ogwumike	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	18.4	17.8	-3.3%	9.8	9.7	-1.0%	3.8	3.6	-5.0%	39.4	38.3	-2.9%
LAS	Dearica Hamby	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.0	16.5	-3.3%	7.7	7.6	-1.0%	2.9	2.8	-5.1%	34.4	33.4	-2.9%
LAS	Rae Burrell	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.4	16.8	-3.3%	2.6	2.6	-1.2%	3.0	2.8	-5.1%	27.6	26.6	-3.5%
MIN	Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	Teammates out: +5.9 min, 10% usage boost	5.9	1.1	5.7	5.8	+1.9%	2.8	2.8	-0.4%	1.0	1.4	+38.5%	13.0	14.6	+12.3%
MIN	Natasha Howard	Teammates out: +5.2 min, 9% usage boost	5.2	1.1	14.9	15.7	+4.7%	9.0	9.2	+2.0%	4.0	4.2	+6.1%	36.7	38.1	+3.8%
MIN	Nia Coffey	Teammates out: +2.9 min, 5% usage boost	2.9	1.1	6.3	6.6	+3.8%	4.3	4.3	+1.2%	1.7	1.7	+1.2%	18.4	18.7	+1.5%
MIN	Maya Caldwell	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 3% usage boost	1.8	1.0	4.1	4.2	+2.0%	2.7	2.7	-0.7%	1.1	1.1	+1.9%	10.9	11.0	+0.7%
MIN	Antonia Delaere	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 3% usage boost	1.8	1.0	3.5	3.6	+2.0%	0.9	0.9	-1.1%	1.1	1.1	+3.7%	7.3	7.5	+2.1%
MIN	Kayla McBride	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 3% usage boost	1.7	1.0	20.5	20.1	-1.9%	2.7	2.6	-1.5%	1.8	1.7	-5.5%	32.4	31.4	-3.0%
MIN	Olivia Miles	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 3% usage boost	1.6	1.0	23.6	23.1	-2.2%	5.1	5.0	-1.6%	7.2	6.8	-5.4%	43.7	42.1	-3.5%
MIN	Courtney Williams	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 3% usage boost	1.6	1.0	14.5	14.2	-2.1%	4.8	4.8	-1.4%	4.5	4.2	-5.2%	29.7	28.7	-3.3%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Olivia Miles	star	33.1	23.1	5.0	6.8	1.2	0.4	3.5	2.2	34.9	42.1	high	10%	30%
Natasha Howard	starter	30.4	15.7	9.2	4.2	2.0	0.9	2.3	0.1	29.0	38.1	high	0%	40%
Kayla McBride	star	32.3	20.1	2.6	1.7	1.9	0.2	1.1	3.6	24.5	31.4	medium	20%	10%
Courtney Williams	star	31.4	14.2	4.8	4.2	1.0	0.3	1.8	1.1	23.2	28.7	medium	10%	30%
Nia Coffey	starter	21.3	6.6	4.3	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.7	1.3	12.6	18.7	medium	10%	30%
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	bench	14.0	5.8	2.8	1.4	1.2	0.6	1.1	0.1	10.1	14.6	low	0%	30%
Maya Caldwell	bench	14.3	4.2	2.7	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.9	0.7	8.0	11.0	low	20%	20%
Antonia Delaere	bench	11.8	3.6	0.9	1.1	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.8	5.5	7.5	low	10%	0%
Napheesa Collier	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Chloe Bibby	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Dorka Juhasz	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Liatu King	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Eliska Joklova	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Nneka Ogwumike	star	33.5	17.8	9.7	3.6	1.5	0.4	2.6	1.5	31.0	38.3	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Olivia Miles — 33.10 MIN · 23.08 PTS · 42.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.88	21.00	21.80	24.00	21.30	23.08
REB	4.65	4.40	4.60	5.33	4.65	5.00
AST	6.15	8.00	6.80	4.67	6.59	6.85
FG3M	1.65	3.00	2.30	2.00	1.99	2.17
FTM	4.18	3.20	3.30	4.00	3.68	3.94
STL	1.24	1.00	1.10	1.67	1.19	1.19
BLK	0.65	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.44	0.42
TOV	3.15	4.20	3.10	3.33	3.27	3.52
MIN	31.11	34.28	32.41	28.67	31.74	33.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.043
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Nneka Ogwumike — 33.46 MIN · 17.75 PTS · 38.28 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.85	15.00	15.80	16.33	15.95	17.75
REB	8.79	8.20	8.50	9.00	8.58	9.66
AST	3.09	3.60	3.60	2.00	3.30	3.58
FG3M	1.45	1.20	1.30

Natasha Howard — 30.36 MIN · 15.65 PTS · 38.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.11	12.80	11.60	11.00	13.08	15.65
REB	7.83	8.20	7.60	8.33	7.96	9.17
AST	3.25	3.40	3.60	3.67	3.48	4.19
FG3M	0.08	0.20	0.10

Dearica Hamby — 30.86 MIN · 16.48 PTS · 33.40 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.15	14.80	16.50	12.67	15.36	16.48
REB	7.32	5.40	6.80	8.67	7.03	7.62
AST	2.50	2.20	3.10	1.67	2.67	2.79
FG3M	0.26	0.20	0.20

Kayla McBride — 32.30 MIN · 20.12 PTS · 31.38 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.22	21.00	19.90	17.67	19.14	20.12
REB	3.19	1.80	1.80	1.67	2.53	2.64
AST	2.08	1.00	1.50	0.67	1.70	1.71
FG3M	2.92	4.40	4.00

Courtney Williams — 31.42 MIN · 14.21 PTS · 28.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.58	10.00	11.90	14.67	13.14	14.21
REB	5.08	4.20	4.10	3.67	4.44	4.77
AST	4.17	3.80	4.20	3.00	4.07	4.23
FG3M	1.17	0.60	0.80

Rae Burrell — 30.55 MIN · 16.78 PTS · 26.64 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.12	18.60	17.10	20.00	16.42	16.78
REB	2.38	2.80	2.60	2.00	2.49	2.57
AST	2.47	3.00	3.20	2.33	2.82	2.81
FG3M	1.65	2.40	2.40

Erica Wheeler — 29.62 MIN · 11.40 PTS · 26.22 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.24	9.20	10.30	9.33	9.56	11.40
REB	2.03	3.00	2.30	2.33	2.26	2.59
AST	5.32	5.20	6.20	6.33	5.69	6.39
FG3M	1.26	1.60	1.60

Ariel Atkins — 29.61 MIN · 8.95 PTS · 22.90 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.78	5.00	8.50	6.33	7.89	8.95
REB	2.94	3.20	3.10	1.67	2.89	3.15
AST	2.94	3.40	3.70	5.00	3.48	3.72
FG3M	1.28	1.00	1.70

Nia Coffey — 21.26 MIN · 6.57 PTS · 18.72 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.75	4.20	3.80	6.00	5.58	6.57
REB	4.61	3.00	2.40	4.33	3.80	4.31
AST	1.89	0.60	1.00	1.33	1.52	1.74
FG3M	1.31	1.00	0.80

Monique Akoa Makani — 23.31 MIN · 10.17 PTS · 18.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.95	5.60	8.30	11.33	8.54	10.17
REB	1.95	1.20	1.60	0.67	1.64	1.87
AST	2.43	1.80	2.20	3.33	2.35	2.66
FG3M	1.14	0.40	1.20

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu — 13.96 MIN · 5.85 PTS · 14.55 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	4.00	3.70	6.50	4.05	5.85
REB	2.19	2.00	1.70	2.50	1.99	2.77
AST	0.70	0.40	0.80	1.00	0.74	1.44
FG3M	0.07	0.20	0.10

Maya Caldwell — 14.33 MIN · 4.18 PTS · 11.00 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.03	1.40	3.70	3.33	3.66	4.18
REB	2.19	1.20	2.70	3.00	2.43	2.67
AST	1.06	0.60	0.80	1.33	0.97	1.10
FG3M	0.69	0.20	0.60

Chance Gray — 11.93 MIN · 3.77 PTS · 8.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.77	2.40	3.30	3.33	2.97	3.77
REB	1.19	1.60	1.10	1.33	1.19	1.45
AST	0.94	0.80	1.30	1.33	1.12	1.44
FG3M	0.61	0.60	0.90

Antonia Delaere — 11.77 MIN · 3.56 PTS · 7.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	0.40	2.60	3.67	2.84	3.56
REB	0.74	0.40	0.90	0.00	0.71	0.86
AST	1.11	0.20	0.60	0.67	0.89	1.12
FG3M	0.71	0.00	0.60

Kate Martin — 8.78 MIN · 3.31 PTS · 7.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.40	2.00	2.30	0.00	2.15	3.31
REB	0.93	1.60	1.20	1.00	1.05	1.56
AST	0.33	0.20	0.40	0.00	0.33	0.54
FG3M	0.47	0.20	0.40

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.084
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.077
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.045
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.009
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.040
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 0.995
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.068
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.016
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.069
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 21
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.064
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 27
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.334
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.056
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.155
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.157
Def adj (PTS): 1.042
Opp DefRtg: 112.30 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 15
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.016
Minute scale: 1.403
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11