Predictions

Tue, Jul 7, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 15

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Chicago SkyAway

90.3

Record: 12-22 | 11th in standingsL10 Record: 4-6📺 The U, WCIU

Phoenix MercuryHome

85.3

Record: 13-22 | 10th in standingsL10 Record: 5-5📺 Arizona's Family Sports, Merc+

Total

175.6

Game lines unavailable: No event for CHI @ PHX

Injury report

6 Out applied to these projections.

CHI

Injury impact on predictions18 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
CHI	Sydney Taylor	Teammates out: +7.3 min, 11% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.3	1.1	22.0	22.4	+1.8%	2.3	2.3	+0.9%	2.5	2.8	+9.9%	31.8	32.8	+3.3%
CHI	Courtney Vandersloot	Teammates out: +7.3 min, 11% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.3	1.1	9.8	10.0	+1.8%	3.1	3.2	+1.3%	5.2	5.8	+10.1%	24.1	25.5	+5.6%
CHI	Jacy Sheldon	Teammates out: +7.3 min, 11% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.3	1.1	6.3	6.4	+1.7%	1.1	1.1	+0.9%	1.4	1.5	+8.7%	11.8	12.3	+4.1%
CHI	Gabriela Jaquez	Teammates out: +7.3 min, 11% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.3	1.1	5.3	5.5	+1.9%	2.2	2.2	+0.9%	0.7	0.8	+11.1%	10.2	10.6	+3.6%
CHI	Natasha Cloud	Teammates out: +5.2 min, 8% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	5.2	1.1	10.5	10.9	+3.6%	3.0	3.1	+3.0%	5.7	5.5	-4.0%	25.2	25.2	+0.2%
CHI	Rachel Banham	Teammates out: +4.2 min, 6% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.2	1.1	6.1	6.2	+1.0%	1.4	1.4	0.0%	1.5	1.6	+7.3%	11.8	12.2	+3.0%
CHI	Aicha Coulibaly	Teammates out: +4.2 min, 6% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.2	1.1	5.5	5.6	+0.9%	2.4	2.4	+0.4%	0.6	0.6	+5.1%	11.1	11.3	+2.1%
CHI	Azura Stevens	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.2	1.0	13.2	13.2	0.0%	8.5	8.6	+2.0%	2.7	2.4	-11.7%	30.7	30.1	-2.0%
CHI	Elizabeth Williams	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.4	1.0	4.7	4.6	-1.7%	3.1	3.1	+1.0%	1.4	1.3	-11.9%	12.3	11.8	-4.0%
CHI	Kamilla Cardoso	Teammates out: +0.7 min, 1% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.7	1.0	15.4	14.2	-7.8%	9.0	8.6	-4.3%	2.5	2.1	-16.7%	33.5	30.7	-8.5%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Teammates out: +7.8 min, 4% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.8	1.0	14.2	15.0	+5.6%	8.4	8.7	+2.7%	2.1	2.4	+13.6%	34.2	36.2	+5.9%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Teammates out: +7.8 min, 4% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	7.8	1.0	8.1	8.6	+5.7%	2.3	2.4	+3.1%	2.0	2.4	+19.2%	17.2	18.7	+9.0%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +4.9 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.9	1.0	5.7	5.9	+4.8%	1.6	1.6	+1.9%	1.9	2.3	+17.7%	11.5	12.5	+8.4%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Teammates out: +4.5 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.5	1.0	10.4	10.8	+4.6%	4.2	4.3	+1.9%	1.7	1.9	+12.0%	20.2	21.2	+5.2%
PHX	Marta Suarez	Teammates out: +3.2 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	3.2	1.0	3.8	4.0	+3.6%	1.3	1.3	+0.8%	0.5	0.7	+20.4%	6.5	6.9	+5.8%
PHX	Kyara Linskens	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 1% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.2	1.0	3.4	3.5	+3.9%	3.4	3.4	+0.9%	0.9	0.9	-1.1%	12.3	12.2	-0.6%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.1	16.1	-5.7%	9.4	9.0	-3.4%	9.1	8.1	-11.5%	44.7	41.0	-8.1%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	22.8	21.5	-5.7%	3.5	3.4	-3.4%	2.4	2.1	-11.5%	32.2	30.0	-7.0%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Sydney Taylor	rotation	28.3	22.4	2.3	2.8	0.9	0.4	1.9	3.2	27.5	32.8	medium	20%	40%
Kamilla Cardoso	starter	25.5	14.2	8.6	2.1	0.6	1.2	1.7	0.0	24.9	30.7	high	10%	20%
Azura Stevens	rotation	29.0	13.2	8.6	2.4	1.0	0.6	2.4	1.1	24.2	30.1	medium	20%	20%
Courtney Vandersloot	bench	21.6	10.0	3.2	5.8	1.3	0.4	2.2	1.1	19.0	25.5	medium	20%	10%
Natasha Cloud	starter	27.2	10.9	3.1	5.5	1.1	0.2	1.7	1.0	19.5	25.3	high	30%	0%
Jacy Sheldon	rotation	18.5	6.4	1.1	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.7	0.9	9.0	12.3	low	20%	0%
Rachel Banham	bench	13.0	6.2	1.4	1.6	0.4	0.4	0.9	1.4	9.2	12.2	low	10%	30%
Elizabeth Williams	rotation	15.3	4.6	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.5	1.0	0.0	9.0	11.8	low	20%	0%
Aicha Coulibaly	bench	13.2	5.6	2.4	0.6	0.9	0.2	0.5	0.1	8.6	11.3	low	10%	20%
Gabriela Jaquez	rotation	14.9	5.5	2.2	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.9	0.5	8.4	10.6	medium	10%	50%
Skylar Diggins	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
DiJonai Carrington	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Maddy Westbeld	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Alyssa Thomas	star	36.8	16.1	9.0	8.1	1.2	0.6	4.1	0.0	33.2	41.0	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Alyssa Thomas — 36.78 MIN · 16.11 PTS · 41.05 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	15.67	15.22	16.11
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	11.00	8.45	9.04
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	7.67	8.21	8.09
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	3.61	4.40	4.50	7.00	4.43	4.65
STL	1.39	1.20	1.20	1.33	1.30	1.20
BLK	0.48	0.60	0.70	1.00	0.63	0.58
TOV	3.61	4.00	3.50	5.00	3.75	4.10
MIN	33.99	34.89	35.38	33.92	34.60	36.78

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.063
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

DeWanna Bonner — 32.98 MIN · 15.03 PTS · 36.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	11.33	11.71	15.03
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	7.33	7.03	8.67
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.33	1.77	2.43
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Sydney Taylor — 28.33 MIN · 22.42 PTS · 32.81 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.71	21.20	19.30	11.67	16.49	22.42
REB	1.57	2.40	2.10	1.00	1.75	2.33
AST	1.68	3.20	2.30	1.33	1.91	2.78
FG3M	2.11	3.40	2.90

Kamilla Cardoso — 25.53 MIN · 14.18 PTS · 30.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.55	16.00	15.20	10.67	14.69	14.18
REB	8.61	9.60	8.60	8.33	8.68	8.59
AST	2.45	2.20	2.40	3.33	2.43	2.10
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Azura Stevens — 29.04 MIN · 13.18 PTS · 30.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.04	9.60	11.70	9.00	10.97	13.18
REB	6.68	6.40	7.70	10.00	7.14	8.64
AST	2.32	1.40	2.30	2.00	2.23	2.35
FG3M	0.92	0.60	1.10

Kahleah Copper — 34.99 MIN · 21.50 PTS · 29.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	24.33	20.67	21.50
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	4.33	3.23	3.39
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	1.00	2.15	2.08
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Courtney Vandersloot — 21.63 MIN · 10.03 PTS · 25.48 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.88	9.60	9.50	11.50	9.29	10.03
REB	2.76	3.00	3.00	4.00	2.99	3.17
AST	4.82	5.60	5.00	5.50	4.99	5.78
FG3M	0.88	1.40	1.00

Natasha Cloud — 27.19 MIN · 10.86 PTS · 25.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.24	12.20	11.40	10.33	10.87	10.86
REB	3.21	3.60	3.00	4.00	3.19	3.13
AST	5.03	7.40	6.60	6.67	6.00	5.51
FG3M	1.03	0.80	1.10

Valeriane Ayayi — 26.05 MIN · 10.85 PTS · 21.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	9.33	6.38	10.85
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	3.33	2.65	4.33
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	0.67	1.03	1.87
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Noemie Brochant — 27.25 MIN · 8.60 PTS · 18.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	1.33	6.35	8.60
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.33	1.80	2.35
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	0.67	1.56	2.36
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Lexi Held — 19.95 MIN · 5.92 PTS · 12.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	0.00	3.41	5.92
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	1.00	0.99	1.65
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	1.33	1.17	2.26
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Jacy Sheldon — 18.47 MIN · 6.42 PTS · 12.26 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.85	8.60	7.20	5.67	7.01	6.42
REB	1.29	1.00	1.30	0.67	1.21	1.08
AST	1.65	1.60	1.40	2.00	1.55	1.50
FG3M	0.91	1.60	1.00

Kyara Linskens — 13.19 MIN · 3.50 PTS · 12.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	1.40	2.40	0.00	2.52	3.50
REB	2.44	2.60	2.50	2.00	2.54	3.39
AST	0.67	1.40	0.70	0.50	0.70	0.93
FG3M	0.39	0.20	0.30

Rachel Banham — 12.99 MIN · 6.17 PTS · 12.18 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.70	8.80	5.50	4.00	5.19	6.17
REB	1.10	2.00	1.30	1.00	1.23	1.43
AST	1.13	1.40	1.60	0.67	1.30	1.62
FG3M	1.07	2.00	1.20

Elizabeth Williams — 15.31 MIN · 4.63 PTS · 11.82 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.24	4.20	5.60	3.33	4.93	4.63
REB	3.68	3.00	2.80	4.00	3.28	3.12
AST	1.50	2.00	1.30	1.67	1.51	1.26
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Aicha Coulibaly — 13.17 MIN · 5.59 PTS · 11.32 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.09	7.20	5.50	7.33	5.69	5.59
REB	2.57	2.00	2.30	3.00	2.46	2.38
AST	0.61	1.00	0.60	0.33	0.61	0.62
FG3M	0.04	0.20	0.10

Gabriela Jaquez — 14.93 MIN · 5.45 PTS · 10.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.07	3.00	3.60	8.33	5.91	5.45
REB	3.10	1.00	1.70	1.67	2.43	2.19
AST	0.93	0.60	0.70	0.67	0.80	0.80
FG3M	0.53	0.40	0.50

Marta Suarez — 9.39 MIN · 3.98 PTS · 6.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.38	2.40	3.80	0.00	3.36	3.98
REB	1.15	0.60	1.10	1.00	1.12	1.27
AST	0.46	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.48	0.65
FG3M	0.31	0.00	0.20

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.151
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.265
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.992
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 25
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.138
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.045
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 17
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.005
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.913
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 29
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.540
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.213
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.572
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.853
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 18
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.268
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 30
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.115
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.904
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.923
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 30
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 0.858
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 13
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.010
Minute scale: 1.083
Def adj (PTS): 1.004
Opp DefRtg: 108.30 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.52

L50.15

L100.21

h2h0.02

def0.10