Predictions

Sat, Aug 1, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 13

← Prev Today Next →

Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

New York LibertyAway

92.6

21-146thL10 8-2

Phoenix MercuryHome

83.9

13-2210thL10 5-5

Total

176.5

📺 ABC

Game lines unavailable: No event for NYL @ PHX

Injury report

5 Out applied to these projections.

NYL

Injury impact on predictions17 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
NYL	Rebecca Allen	Teammates out: +8.2 min, 18% usage boost	8.2	1.2	8.7	8.7	+0.6%	3.3	3.2	-0.3%	1.0	1.4	+30.8%	17.9	19.2	+7.2%
NYL	Breanna Stewart	Teammates out: +5.8 min, 13% usage boost	5.8	1.1	21.0	21.9	+4.0%	8.4	8.6	+3.0%	3.9	4.1	+4.8%	41.8	43.2	+3.5%
NYL	Marine Johannes	Teammates out: +2.5 min, 5% usage boost	2.5	1.1	8.0	8.1	+0.5%	1.5	1.5	-0.7%	1.7	1.7	-0.6%	14.6	14.6	-0.2%
NYL	Rebekah Gardner	Teammates out: +2.5 min, 5% usage boost	2.5	1.1	5.7	5.7	+0.5%	3.1	3.0	-0.3%	1.4	1.4	+4.4%	13.0	13.1	+0.6%
NYL	Han Xu	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 5% usage boost	2.2	1.0	8.3	8.2	-0.4%	3.5	3.4	-1.4%	0.7	0.7	+2.9%	16.0	15.9	-0.5%
NYL	Jonquel Jones	Teammates out: +2.1 min, 5% usage boost	2.1	1.0	13.3	13.2	-1.3%	9.5	9.5	-0.3%	3.2	3.1	-4.3%	33.5	32.8	-2.2%
NYL	Pauline Astier	Teammates out: +2.1 min, 5% usage boost	2.1	1.0	8.0	8.1	+0.4%	2.0	2.0	+0.5%	3.1	3.0	-2.9%	16.3	16.1	-1.4%
NYL	Marine Fauthoux	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 4% usage boost	1.7	1.0	5.3	5.3	-0.4%	3.1	3.1	-1.6%	2.9	2.9	-0.7%	13.6	13.4	-1.0%
NYL	Sabrina Ionescu	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 4% usage boost	1.6	1.0	19.0	18.2	-4.1%	4.4	4.3	-2.3%	5.2	4.8	-6.2%	33.9	32.2	-4.8%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.2	1.0	5.2	5.5	+6.2%	1.8	1.9	+1.1%	2.0	2.0	+2.5%	12.1	12.6	+4.6%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.9	1.0	3.6	3.8	+4.9%	0.9	0.9	+2.2%	1.1	1.1	+0.9%	7.0	7.2	+3.9%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.3	1.0	6.5	6.5	+0.9%	2.6	2.6	+1.5%	1.2	1.2	-3.3%	12.9	12.9	+0.4%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.6	17.5	-0.8%	8.9	8.9	-0.3%	9.7	9.2	-5.0%	45.7	44.8	-2.1%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	14.2	14.1	-0.8%	8.0	8.0	-0.2%	2.1	2.0	-5.2%	33.1	32.8	-1.1%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	22.9	22.8	-0.8%	3.3	3.3	-0.3%	2.4	2.3	-4.9%	32.1	31.6	-1.3%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.2	7.1	-0.7%	5.5	5.4	-0.4%	1.1	1.0	-4.7%	18.1	18.0	-0.9%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.1	7.1	-0.8%	1.7	1.7	-0.6%	1.7	1.6	-5.3%	14.7	14.4	-1.6%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Breanna Stewart	star	33.4	21.9	8.6	4.1	1.2	1.3	1.9	0.8	34.6	43.2	high	20%	10%
Jonquel Jones	starter	26.5	13.2	9.5	3.1	0.6	1.0	1.8	1.6	25.8	32.8	high	10%	20%
Sabrina Ionescu	star	31.2	18.2	4.3	4.8	0.7	0.2	3.2	2.3	27.3	32.2	medium	30%	10%
Rebecca Allen	bench	27.0	8.7	3.3	1.4	1.2	0.7	0.6	1.8	13.3	19.2	low	0%	20%
Pauline Astier	rotation	19.3	8.1	2.0	3.0	0.6	0.1	1.4	0.3	13.0	16.1	medium	10%	10%
Han Xu	bench	16.4	8.2	3.4	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.2	12.3	15.9	low	20%	20%
Marine Johannes	rotation	15.7	8.1	1.5	1.7	0.7	0.1	1.2	2.2	11.3	14.6	low	10%	20%
Marine Fauthoux	bench	18.8	5.3	3.1	2.9	0.3	0.0	2.0	0.9	11.3	13.4	low	20%	10%
Rebekah Gardner	bench	15.7	5.7	3.0	1.4	0.5	0.3	0.5	0.2	10.2	13.1	low	20%	10%
Leonie Fiebich	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Satou Sabally	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Raquel Carrera	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Anneli Maley	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Alyssa Thomas	star	39.0	17.5	8.9	9.2	1.6	0.6	4.1	0.0	35.5	44.8	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Alyssa Thomas — 39.04 MIN · 17.46 PTS · 44.80 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	13.67	15.02	17.46
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	5.33	7.69	8.87
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	8.00	8.32	9.20
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	3.61	4.40	4.50	3.00	3.92	4.48
STL	1.39	1.20	1.20	2.67	1.42	1.62
BLK	0.48	0.60	0.70	0.33	0.55	0.63
TOV	3.61	4.00	3.50	3.67	3.56	4.09
MIN	33.99	34.89	35.38	34.62	34.67	39.04

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.996
Minute scale: 1.126
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Breanna Stewart — 33.35 MIN · 21.89 PTS · 43.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.97	19.20	21.80	11.33	19.86	21.89
REB	8.29	6.60	8.10	8.33	8.02	8.64
AST	3.24	4.40	4.40	2.67	3.73	4.12
FG3M	0.79	0.40	0.90

Jonquel Jones — 26.50 MIN · 13.18 PTS · 32.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.47	14.80	13.50	14.00	13.94	13.18
REB	9.38	11.60	9.90	10.00	10.06	9.49
AST	2.88	3.40	3.70	3.67	3.40	3.09
FG3M	1.79	2.20	1.50

DeWanna Bonner — 32.99 MIN · 14.07 PTS · 32.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	10.33	11.60	14.07
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	5.00	6.64	8.00
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.00	1.75	2.02
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Sabrina Ionescu — 31.23 MIN · 18.21 PTS · 32.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.00	15.40	19.60	27.00	17.96	18.21
REB	3.96	3.40	4.30	7.00	4.19	4.27
AST	4.52	4.40	4.90	10.00	4.92	4.84
FG3M	2.09	1.60	2.50

Kahleah Copper — 36.74 MIN · 22.75 PTS · 31.65 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	20.00	20.22	22.75
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	2.33	2.94	3.28
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	1.00	2.17	2.32
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Rebecca Allen — 27.02 MIN · 8.72 PTS · 19.19 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.15	9.80	8.80	2.33	6.11	8.72
REB	2.05	3.40	2.90	1.33	2.32	3.25
AST	0.70	1.00	0.80	0.33	0.73	1.36
FG3M	1.05	2.00	1.80

Natasha Mack — 18.53 MIN · 7.13 PTS · 17.96 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	8.33	7.41	7.13
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	6.00	5.69	5.43
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	1.00	1.11	1.02
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Pauline Astier — 19.31 MIN · 8.07 PTS · 16.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.43	7.80	8.40	9.67	8.74	8.07
REB	2.46	2.00	1.60	3.33	2.19	2.00
AST	3.49	3.20	3.00	4.00	3.35	2.97
FG3M	0.43	0.20	0.30

Han Xu — 16.35 MIN · 8.24 PTS · 15.94 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.14	8.40	8.20	11.33	7.64	8.24
REB	2.51	4.40	3.60	5.00	3.23	3.40
AST	0.71	0.60	0.60	0.67	0.65	0.71
FG3M	0.86	1.00	1.20

Marine Johannes — 15.74 MIN · 8.08 PTS · 14.60 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.06	10.20	8.90	10.67	9.31	8.08
REB	2.19	1.00	1.30	1.67	1.79	1.52
AST	2.41	1.40	1.20	2.33	1.97	1.68
FG3M	2.22	2.60	2.30

Noemie Brochant — 24.15 MIN · 7.07 PTS · 14.45 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	3.33	6.55	7.07
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	1.00	1.62	1.73
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	0.67	1.58	1.61
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Marine Fauthoux — 18.76 MIN · 5.29 PTS · 13.42 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	3.20	5.20	2.00	4.24	5.29
REB	2.36	2.60	3.10	0.00	2.52	3.06
AST	2.21	3.60	2.50	2.00	2.36	2.91
FG3M	0.64	0.60	0.90

Rebekah Gardner — 15.71 MIN · 5.73 PTS · 13.08 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.15	5.40	6.00	3.33	5.36	5.73
REB	2.55	3.80	3.70	1.33	2.91	3.05
AST	1.27	1.20	1.40	0.67	1.30	1.43
FG3M	0.24	0.00	0.20

Valeriane Ayayi — 17.37 MIN · 6.53 PTS · 12.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	2.67	5.71	6.53
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	0.67	2.33	2.65
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	1.00	1.07	1.17
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Sami Whitcomb — 16.78 MIN · 5.49 PTS · 12.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	4.00	4.48	5.49
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	0.00	1.61	1.86
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	3.00	1.72	2.02
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Lexi Held — 11.79 MIN · 3.82 PTS · 7.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	2.00	3.72	3.82
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	1.00	0.96	0.95
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	0.00	1.12	1.10
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

NYL

PHX

Best value plays

NYL

PHX

Per-player detail