Predictions

Sun, Aug 2, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Connecticut SunAway

77.3

8-2414thL10 3-7

Dallas WingsHome

89.3

20-147thL10 4-6

Total

166.6

📺 ESPN, Disney+

Game lines unavailable: No event for CON @ DAL

Injury report

5 Out applied to these projections.

CON

Injury impact on predictions18 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
CON	Diamond Miller	Teammates out: +8.0 min, 13% usage boost	8.0	1.1	13.8	14.3	+3.6%	3.5	3.6	+1.7%	1.8	2.1	+14.8%	23.8	25.2	+5.7%
CON	Olivia Nelson-Ododa	Teammates out: +6.4 min, 10% usage boost	6.4	1.1	13.4	13.8	+2.8%	8.9	9.0	+0.7%	2.2	2.5	+9.9%	30.6	31.7	+3.5%
CON	Raegan Beers	Teammates out: +5.7 min, 9% usage boost	5.7	1.1	4.1	4.2	+1.9%	4.0	4.0	-0.2%	1.1	1.5	+29.2%	11.9	12.8	+7.8%
CON	Nell Angloma	Teammates out: +5.7 min, 9% usage boost	5.7	1.1	5.2	5.3	+1.7%	2.4	2.4	-0.4%	1.1	1.4	+30.8%	11.6	12.7	+9.8%
CON	Saniya Rivers	Teammates out: +5.0 min, 8% usage boost	5.0	1.1	6.0	6.2	+2.8%	2.0	2.0	+1.0%	3.0	3.1	+3.7%	15.6	16.0	+2.5%
CON	Kennedy Burke	Teammates out: +2.3 min, 4% usage boost	2.3	1.0	10.9	11.1	+1.4%	4.1	4.1	+1.5%	1.4	1.3	-7.6%	22.9	22.5	-1.9%
CON	Charlisse Leger-Walker	Teammates out: +2.3 min, 4% usage boost	2.3	1.0	7.7	7.8	+1.6%	2.4	2.4	+1.7%	4.8	4.5	-7.3%	19.2	18.7	-2.9%
DAL	Maddy Siegrist	Teammates out: +2.9 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.9	1.0	5.5	5.7	+4.6%	2.4	2.4	+0.8%	0.8	1.0	+15.7%	11.4	12.1	+6.0%
DAL	Alysha Clark	Teammates out: +2.9 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.9	1.0	2.3	2.4	+4.3%	1.4	1.4	+0.7%	0.6	0.7	+25.0%	5.6	6.1	+8.7%
DAL	Awak Kuier	Teammates out: +2.3 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.3	1.0	4.8	5.1	+5.4%	2.2	2.3	+1.8%	0.5	0.6	+9.4%	10.7	11.2	+4.9%
DAL	Aziaha James	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.2	1.0	4.3	4.5	+4.4%	1.7	1.8	+1.2%	0.8	0.8	+13.3%	8.7	9.2	+5.9%
DAL	Sug Sutton	Teammates out: +2.2 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	2.2	1.0	2.6	2.7	+4.3%	0.8	0.8	0.0%	1.7	2.0	+13.9%	6.5	7.1	+8.3%
DAL	Odyssey Sims	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.7	1.0	4.9	5.2	+5.3%	1.1	1.1	+1.9%	2.0	2.1	+5.4%	10.4	10.9	+4.8%
DAL	Li Yueru	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.1	1.0	5.6	5.9	+4.5%	4.0	4.0	+1.0%	0.6	0.6	+5.4%	12.7	13.1	+2.9%
DAL	Jessica Shepard	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	12.8	12.5	-2.4%	9.9	9.8	-0.8%	4.5	4.3	-5.3%	32.6	31.7	-2.7%
DAL	Paige Bueckers	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	18.3	17.9	-2.4%	3.7	3.7	-0.8%	5.2	4.9	-5.2%	32.8	31.7	-3.3%
DAL	Arike Ogunbowale	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	15.9	15.5	-2.4%	3.1	3.1	-0.6%	3.6	3.4	-5.0%	27.5	26.6	-3.1%
DAL	Azzi Fudd	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	12.3	12.0	-2.4%	1.7	1.6	-0.6%	1.9	1.8	-5.2%	22.5	21.7	-3.6%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Olivia Nelson-Ododa	rotation	29.3	13.8	9.0	2.5	1.0	1.1	2.6	0.0	25.2	31.7	medium	0%	40%
Diamond Miller	rotation	30.1	14.3	3.6	2.1	1.3	0.3	2.1	1.9	20.0	25.2	medium	10%	30%
Leila Lacan	starter	32.9	12.0	2.4	4.3	1.5	0.5	3.1	1.1	18.7	24.4	medium	10%	30%
Kennedy Burke	rotation	27.1	11.1	4.1	1.3	1.0	1.1	1.6	1.7	16.5	22.5	medium	0%	20%
Charlisse Leger-Walker	rotation	31.7	7.8	2.4	4.5	0.9	0.1	2.8	1.0	14.7	18.7	medium	0%	50%
Saniya Rivers	rotation	20.0	6.2	2.0	3.1	1.1	0.5	1.2	0.3	11.2	16.0	medium	20%	20%
Raegan Beers	bench	14.6	4.2	4.0	1.5	0.7	0.2	1.0	0.1	9.7	12.8	low	10%	40%
Nell Angloma	bench	14.4	5.3	2.4	1.4	0.8	0.6	0.9	0.3	9.1	12.7	low	0%	50%
Brittney Griner	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.0	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Hailey Van Lith	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Aaliyah Edwards	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Rayah Marshall	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Ashlon Jackson	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	medium	0%	0%
Gianna Kneepkens	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Jessica Shepard	star	28.3	12.5	9.8	4.3	0.6	0.1	1.6	0.0	26.6	31.7	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Olivia Nelson-Ododa — 29.29 MIN · 13.77 PTS · 31.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.50	10.00	10.70	9.50	9.83	13.77
REB	5.96	7.20	6.90	9.50	6.64	9.00
AST	1.79	0.80	1.70	1.50	1.65	2.45
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	2.36	2.80	2.90	2.50	2.53	3.42
STL	0.82	1.00	0.70	0.50	0.72	1.03
BLK	0.86	1.20	0.90	0.00	0.80	1.13
TOV	1.57	2.40	2.10	3.50	1.93	2.62
MIN	21.16	22.77	23.28	25.45	22.29	29.29

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.993
Minute scale: 1.314
Def adj (PTS): 0.995
Opp DefRtg: 107.40 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Jessica Shepard — 28.34 MIN · 12.49 PTS · 31.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.21	10.20	12.80	14.50	13.00	12.49
REB	11.36	7.40	10.60	7.50	10.21	9.84
AST	5.18	3.80	5.10	1.50	4.60	4.26
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Paige Bueckers — 30.20 MIN · 17.89 PTS · 31.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.19	17.00	19.20	15.50	19.30	17.89
REB	4.06	3.20	3.90	5.00	3.94	3.66
AST	5.84	5.00	5.40	5.50	5.52	4.94
FG3M	1.75	1.40	1.70

Arike Ogunbowale — 29.74 MIN · 15.53 PTS · 26.65 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.65	12.20	17.80	12.00	15.62	15.53
REB	3.06	2.80	3.20	3.50	3.06	3.06
AST	3.15	4.00	4.00	3.00	3.58	3.44
FG3M	1.76	1.00	1.60

Diamond Miller — 30.08 MIN · 14.32 PTS · 25.17 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.22	11.60	11.20	12.50	10.41	14.32
REB	2.47	2.60	2.70	3.50	2.68	3.57
AST	1.38	1.80	1.40	1.00	1.38	2.09
FG3M	1.09	2.00	1.90

Leila Lacan — 32.91 MIN · 12.02 PTS · 24.45 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.87	8.60	10.80	12.50	11.06	12.02
REB	2.00	2.80	2.50	1.50	2.21	2.44
AST	4.39	4.40	4.20	3.50	4.19	4.28
FG3M	1.09	1.00	0.90

Kennedy Burke — 27.14 MIN · 11.07 PTS · 22.52 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.32	10.80	8.40	11.00	8.89	11.07
REB	3.26	3.20	3.30	4.50	3.36	4.14
AST	1.45	0.80	0.90	1.00	1.18	1.33
FG3M	1.23	1.80	1.60

Azzi Fudd — 31.34 MIN · 12.04 PTS · 21.66 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	8.00	12.38	12.04
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	3.00	1.69	1.65
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	3.00	1.96	1.83
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Charlisse Leger-Walker — 31.74 MIN · 7.83 PTS · 18.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.47	5.20	5.00	7.00	5.72	7.83
REB	2.00	1.00	1.90	1.00	1.79	2.42
AST	3.34	3.60	4.30	1.50	3.60	4.47
FG3M	0.75	1.20	0.70

Saniya Rivers — 19.96 MIN · 6.17 PTS · 15.99 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.61	4.80	5.40	1.50	5.60	6.17
REB	2.14	1.60	1.50	2.00	1.86	1.99
AST	3.11	2.60	2.60	2.00	2.79	3.08
FG3M	0.32	0.20	0.10

Li Yueru — 16.91 MIN · 5.86 PTS · 13.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.44	3.40	4.30	5.50	3.94	5.86
REB	2.80	2.60	3.10	1.50	2.82	4.01
AST	0.48	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.40	0.59
FG3M	0.28	0.20	0.30

Raegan Beers — 14.62 MIN · 4.21 PTS · 12.81 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.38	3.00	2.80	2.00	3.00	4.21
REB	2.96	4.20	2.70	3.00	2.98	4.04
AST	0.77	1.00	0.70	3.00	0.83	1.46
FG3M	0.08	0.20	0.10

Nell Angloma — 14.44 MIN · 5.29 PTS · 12.69 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.75	2.60	3.30	5.00	3.52	5.29
REB	1.54	1.80	1.60	1.00	1.63	2.37
AST	0.61	0.60	1.00	0.00	0.73	1.40
FG3M	0.11	0.20	0.20

Maddy Siegrist — 11.34 MIN · 5.70 PTS · 12.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.13	5.00	6.00	5.50	6.06	5.70
REB	2.74	3.00	2.50	2.50	2.70	2.42
AST	0.81	1.40	1.00	1.00	0.93	0.96
FG3M	0.77	0.40	0.90

Awak Kuier — 11.82 MIN · 5.09 PTS · 11.18 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.55	6.60	5.50	5.50	5.73	5.09
REB	3.00	2.80	2.50	1.00	2.68	2.27
AST	0.84	0.40	0.50	0.00	0.64	0.58
FG3M	0.58	0.60	0.30

Odyssey Sims — 14.36 MIN · 5.19 PTS · 10.88 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.40	7.60	5.20	5.50	5.60	5.19
REB	1.04	2.20	1.40	1.50	1.23	1.09
AST	2.20	3.00	2.30	3.00	2.34	2.15
FG3M	0.48	0.60	0.40

Aziaha James — 7.70 MIN · 4.50 PTS · 9.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	5.00	6.00	4.50
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	2.50	2.44	1.75
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	1.00	1.05	0.85
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Sug Sutton — 7.86 MIN · 2.69 PTS · 7.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.74	1.40	1.50	4.00	3.02	2.69
REB	0.89	1.00	0.70	1.67	0.90	0.76
AST	2.32	1.40	1.70	2.33	2.04	1.97
FG3M	0.32	0.20	0.10

Alysha Clark — 10.50 MIN · 2.44 PTS · 6.12 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.05	1.40	2.20	1.00	2.13	2.44
REB	1.19	1.80	1.20	3.00	1.30	1.43
AST	0.48	0.60	0.50	1.00	0.51	0.70
FG3M	0.38	0.20	0.40

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

CON

DAL

Best value plays

CON

DAL

Per-player detail