Predictions

Fri, Aug 7, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Phoenix MercuryAway

85.3

13-2210thL10 5-5

Connecticut SunHome

80.0

8-2414thL10 3-7

Total

165.3

📺 ION

Game lines unavailable: No event for PHX @ CON

Injury report

4 Out applied to these projections.

PHX

Injury impact on predictions12 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
CON	Nell Angloma	Teammates out: +3.5 min, 0% usage boost	3.5	1.0	4.0	4.2	+4.7%	1.9	1.9	+0.5%	0.8	1.0	+27.2%	9.0	10.1	+11.3%
CON	Gianna Kneepkens	Teammates out: +3.4 min, 0% usage boost	3.4	1.0	4.3	4.5	+4.9%	1.3	1.3	+0.8%	0.4	0.6	+33.3%	7.1	7.7	+8.3%
CON	Saniya Rivers	Teammates out: +2.8 min, 0% usage boost	2.8	1.0	5.7	6.1	+5.9%	1.7	1.7	+1.2%	2.8	3.0	+7.1%	14.7	15.6	+6.1%
CON	Olivia Nelson-Ododa	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 0% usage boost	1.1	1.0	11.7	12.0	+3.1%	7.7	7.8	+1.7%	2.0	2.0	0.0%	26.8	27.3	+2.1%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 0% usage boost · Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.2	1.0	4.4	4.4	+0.9%	1.6	1.6	-0.6%	1.6	1.5	-3.1%	10.2	10.2	+0.6%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 0% usage boost · Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.9	1.0	3.4	3.4	0.0%	0.8	0.8	0.0%	1.0	1.0	-4.8%	6.5	6.4	-0.3%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost · Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.3	1.0	6.0	5.8	-4.0%	2.4	2.3	-0.4%	1.0	0.9	-8.8%	11.8	11.4	-3.1%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.0	1.0	14.8	14.0	-5.7%	7.9	7.7	-2.3%	8.1	7.3	-10.5%	39.0	36.7	-5.8%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.0	1.0	12.1	11.4	-5.7%	7.2	7.1	-2.2%	1.8	1.6	-10.7%	28.8	27.6	-4.2%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.0	1.0	19.5	18.4	-5.7%	2.9	2.8	-2.4%	2.3	2.0	-10.2%	27.7	26.1	-5.5%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.0	1.0	5.2	4.9	-5.6%	4.1	4.0	-2.2%	0.8	0.7	-10.0%	13.3	12.8	-3.8%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	0.0	1.0	6.5	6.2	-5.7%	1.6	1.5	-2.6%	1.6	1.4	-10.3%	13.3	12.6	-5.1%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Alyssa Thomas	star	33.5	14.0	7.7	7.3	1.3	0.6	3.2	0.0	29.0	36.7	high	10%	10%
Kelsey Plum	star	26.7	19.3	2.0	4.5	0.8	0.0	2.5	2.1	25.9	30.1	medium	10%	10%
DeWanna Bonner	starter	28.4	11.4	7.1	1.6	1.3	1.0	0.6	1.1	20.1	27.6	medium	20%	10%
Kahleah Copper	star	31.3	18.4	2.8	2.0	0.8	0.1	2.6	1.4	23.3	26.1	high	20%	0%
Natasha Mack	rotation	13.8	4.9	4.0	0.7	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	9.6	12.8	high	50%	10%
Noemie Brochant	rotation	21.5	6.2	1.5	1.4	1.0	0.2	0.9	1.0	9.1	12.6	low	10%	0%
Valeriane Ayayi	rotation	15.7	5.8	2.3	0.9	0.7	0.2	1.4	0.5	9.1	11.4	low	20%	20%
Sami Whitcomb	bench	14.2	4.4	1.6	1.5	0.7	0.0	0.7	1.1	7.5	10.2	low	30%	20%
Lexi Held	bench	10.9	3.4	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.6	0.5	5.2	6.4	low	20%	40%
Jovana Nogic	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	high	0%	0%
Kyara Linskens	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Marta Suarez	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Shay Ciezki	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Brittney Griner	starter	28.0	15.1	7.1	2.7	0.4	1.9	2.1	0.1	24.9	31.6	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Alyssa Thomas — 33.52 MIN · 14.01 PTS · 36.73 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	11.33	14.80	14.01
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	7.33	7.96	7.71
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	7.33	8.15	7.27
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	3.61	4.40	4.50	3.33	4.07	3.83
STL	1.39	1.20	1.20	1.67	1.33	1.30
BLK	0.48	0.60	0.70	0.67	0.60	0.59
TOV	3.61	4.00	3.50	2.00	3.49	3.20
MIN	33.99	34.89	35.38	35.05	34.70	33.52

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.966
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Brittney Griner — 28.03 MIN · 15.09 PTS · 31.64 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.22	12.60	14.50	12.00	13.45	15.09
REB	5.83	6.00	6.90	6.00	6.38	7.14
AST	2.50	2.80	2.50	2.67	2.49	2.69
FG3M	0.06	0.20	0.10

Kelsey Plum — 26.72 MIN · 19.31 PTS · 30.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	25.00	20.44	19.31
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	0.00	2.20	2.05
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	3.00	5.09	4.53
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90

DeWanna Bonner — 28.40 MIN · 11.44 PTS · 27.57 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	11.67	11.75	11.44
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	9.00	7.10	7.08
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.00	1.74	1.59
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Olivia Nelson-Ododa — 25.33 MIN · 12.01 PTS · 27.34 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.50	10.00	10.70	8.33	9.72	12.01
REB	5.96	7.20	6.90	7.33	6.52	7.85
AST	1.79	0.80	1.70	2.00	1.71	2.03
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Kahleah Copper — 31.33 MIN · 18.39 PTS · 26.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	18.33	20.08	18.39
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	3.00	3.04	2.84
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.35	2.03
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Leila Lacan — 28.23 MIN · 11.43 PTS · 23.60 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.87	8.60	10.80	14.00	11.28	11.43
REB	2.00	2.80	2.50	2.67	2.30	2.33
AST	4.39	4.40	4.20	4.33	4.28	4.17
FG3M	1.09	1.00	0.90

Diamond Miller — 26.76 MIN · 11.72 PTS · 20.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.22	11.60	11.20	8.67	10.12	11.72
REB	2.47	2.60	2.70	4.00	2.76	3.19
AST	1.38	1.80	1.40	0.33	1.31	1.46
FG3M	1.09	2.00	1.90

Kennedy Burke — 23.09 MIN · 9.44 PTS · 19.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.32	10.80	8.40	11.33	9.01	9.44
REB	3.26	3.20	3.30	2.33	3.18	3.33
AST	1.45	0.80	0.90	0.67	1.16	1.17
FG3M	1.23	1.80	1.60

Charlisse Leger-Walker — 27.42 MIN · 6.40 PTS · 16.76 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.47	5.20	5.00	5.00	5.58	6.40
REB	2.00	1.00	1.90	2.67	1.93	2.21
AST	3.34	3.60	4.30	5.67	3.98	4.39
FG3M	0.75	1.20	0.70

Saniya Rivers — 18.23 MIN · 6.06 PTS · 15.58 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.61	4.80	5.40	5.00	5.85	6.06
REB	2.14	1.60	1.50	0.50	1.76	1.72
AST	3.11	2.60	2.60	3.00	2.88	3.00
FG3M	0.32	0.20	0.10

Natasha Mack — 13.77 MIN · 4.89 PTS · 12.81 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	4.00	7.08	4.89
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	5.50	5.69	4.02
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	1.00	1.10	0.72
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Noemie Brochant — 21.54 MIN · 6.16 PTS · 12.64 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	5.33	6.76	6.16
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	1.00	1.64	1.52
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.33	1.62	1.40
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Valeriane Ayayi — 15.67 MIN · 5.79 PTS · 11.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	6.00	6.05	5.79
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	1.00	2.38	2.34
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	0.67	1.03	0.93
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Sami Whitcomb — 14.17 MIN · 4.43 PTS · 10.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	4.50	4.49	4.43
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	1.00	1.63	1.56
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	0.50	1.64	1.54
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Nell Angloma — 11.43 MIN · 4.21 PTS · 10.06 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.75	2.60	3.30	2.67	3.39	4.21
REB	1.54	1.80	1.60	1.67	1.66	1.95
AST	0.61	0.60	1.00	0.00	0.69	1.03
FG3M	0.11	0.20	0.20

Gianna Kneepkens — 9.01 MIN · 4.47 PTS · 7.69 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.33	4.60	3.50	1.00	3.43	4.47
REB	1.13	1.20	0.90	1.00	1.06	1.31
AST	0.46	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.34	0.56
FG3M	0.38	0.80	0.60

Lexi Held — 10.92 MIN · 3.41 PTS · 6.44 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	5.50	3.90	3.41
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	0.50	0.94	0.81
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	2.00	1.20	0.99
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

PHX

CON

Best value plays

PHX

CON

Per-player detail