WNBA Predictions

Team	Player	Reasons	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	14.9	14.1	-5.6%	7.7	7.5	-2.2%	8.1	7.6	-5.7%	38.5	36.9	-4.3%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	20.0	18.9	-5.6%	3.0	2.9	-2.3%	2.2	2.1	-5.8%	28.1	26.7	-4.9%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	11.6	11.0	-5.7%	6.7	6.6	-2.2%	1.8	1.7	-5.6%	27.5	26.5	-3.7%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	6.0	5.6	-5.7%	4.6	4.5	-2.2%	0.9	0.9	-5.3%	15.0	14.5	-3.5%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	6.8	6.4	-5.6%	1.8	1.7	-2.2%	1.6	1.5	-5.6%	14.1	13.6	-4.0%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.7	5.4	-5.7%	2.4	2.3	-2.1%	1.0	0.9	-6.1%	11.4	11.0	-4.0%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	4.5	4.2	-5.6%	1.6	1.6	-2.5%	1.7	1.6	-5.4%	10.5	10.0	-4.3%
PHX	Lexi Held	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	3.2	3.0	-5.7%	0.8	0.8	-2.5%	1.0	0.9	-5.2%	6.1	5.8	-4.6%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Marina Mabrey	starter	25.9	18.6	2.7	3.4	0.7	0.3	2.6	2.9	24.8	29.2	medium	20%	20%
Nyara Sabally	rotation	20.5	11.8	5.0	1.4	0.9	0.6	1.7	1.0	18.2	22.9	medium	20%	10%
Aneesah Morrow	rotation	17.1	9.3	5.9	1.3	0.9	0.5	1.2	0.7	16.6	21.2	medium	20%	10%
Julie Allemand	starter	25.4	6.2	2.9	5.5	1.2	0.4	1.5	1.4	14.6	21.1	low	30%	10%
Maria Conde	starter	26.4	8.8	4.4	2.8	0.6	0.2	1.4	1.5	16.1	20.2	low	20%	20%
Kiki Rice	starter	22.1	9.8	3.5	2.7	0.9	0.2	1.5	0.6	15.9	19.8	medium	30%	10%
Laura Juskaite	starter	22.9	9.9	3.8	1.2	0.9	0.2	1.9	0.9	14.9	18.2	medium	30%	10%
Isabelle Harrison	rotation	15.4	8.2	4.1	1.1	0.3	0.5	1.3	0.5	13.4	16.1	medium	20%	0%
Temi Fagbenle	bench	12.6	3.8	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.8	0.1	7.5	9.3	low	20%	40%
Kia Nurse	bench	13.6	5.5	1.0	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.2	1.1	7.6	9.3	low	10%	10%
Brittney Sykes	star	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	medium	0%	0%
Teonni Key	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Ornella Bankole	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Kelsey Plum	star	32.3	23.7	2.4	6.1	1.1	0.0	3.0	2.5	32.2	37.8	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Kelsey Plum — 32.25 MIN · 23.68 PTS · 37.79 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	27.50	20.92	23.68
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	0.50	2.17	2.42
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	8.00	5.43	6.10
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90	2.50	2.20	2.49
FTM	4.56	3.20	4.40	6.00	4.46	4.97
STL	1.00	0.40	0.90	2.00	0.99	1.10
BLK	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TOV	2.94	2.20	2.70	2.50	2.73	3.02
MIN	31.42	24.95	29.14	34.51	29.81	32.25

Factors

Games played: 16
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.082
Def adj (PTS): 1.070
Opp DefRtg: 115.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Alyssa Thomas — 32.05 MIN · 14.06 PTS · 36.89 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	17.00	15.40	14.06
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	6.00	8.02	7.49
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	8.00	8.39	7.59
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Marina Mabrey — 25.87 MIN · 18.62 PTS · 29.24 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.81	19.20	19.90	30.00	20.82	18.62
REB	3.35	2.40	2.90	5.00	3.09	2.73
AST	3.71	3.60	4.00	3.00	3.83	3.40
FG3M	3.23	3.00	2.70

Kahleah Copper — 31.04 MIN · 18.87 PTS · 26.69 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	22.50	20.63	18.87
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	4.00	3.13	2.93
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	2.50	2.32	2.11
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

DeWanna Bonner — 26.59 MIN · 10.97 PTS · 26.51 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	13.00	11.94	10.97
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	7.50	6.98	6.56
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	2.00	1.86	1.69
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Nyara Sabally — 20.51 MIN · 11.78 PTS · 22.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	15.00	12.90	14.00	12.73	11.78
REB	5.25	7.60	5.30	4.00	5.50	5.02
AST	1.71	1.80	1.40	1.00	1.56	1.43
FG3M	0.83	1.60	1.20

Aneesah Morrow — 17.14 MIN · 9.33 PTS · 21.19 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.21	11.80	10.20	0.00	10.80	9.33
REB	8.25	5.40	5.20	0.00	6.97	5.94
AST	1.54	1.20	1.60	0.00	1.56	1.33
FG3M	0.83	0.40	0.60

Julie Allemand — 25.38 MIN · 6.24 PTS · 21.14 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.62	6.40	7.30	11.00	7.07	6.24
REB	3.12	2.60	3.30	7.00	3.27	2.85
AST	5.73	6.80	6.30	10.00	6.24	5.46
FG3M	1.27	1.60	1.70

Maria Conde — 26.35 MIN · 8.84 PTS · 20.17 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.03	8.00	10.50	6.00	9.36	8.84
REB	4.66	4.00	4.80	5.00	4.73	4.41
AST	2.56	3.20	3.10	4.00	2.98	2.80
FG3M	1.66	1.20	1.70

Kiki Rice — 22.05 MIN · 9.78 PTS · 19.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.24	10.80	10.40	15.00	10.97	9.78
REB	4.00	2.80	4.00	7.00	3.97	3.49
AST	2.76	3.00	3.10	3.00	3.00	2.66
FG3M	0.76	0.40	0.40

Laura Juskaite — 22.86 MIN · 9.89 PTS · 18.24 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.06	11.20	11.40	5.00	10.55	9.89
REB	3.91	4.20	4.10	4.50	4.12	3.82
AST	1.58	1.20	1.20	0.50	1.32	1.23
FG3M	1.00	0.60	0.90

Isabelle Harrison — 15.36 MIN · 8.21 PTS · 16.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.00	6.40	10.30	12.00	10.91	8.21
REB	5.71	3.60	5.20	7.00	5.46	4.06
AST	1.62	1.80	1.30	0.00	1.52	1.13
FG3M	0.76	0.20	0.50

Natasha Mack — 14.84 MIN · 5.64 PTS · 14.50 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	12.00	7.54	5.64
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	10.00	5.89	4.52
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	3.00	1.19	0.89
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Noemie Brochant — 22.32 MIN · 6.37 PTS · 13.55 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	4.00	6.77	6.37
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	3.00	1.81	1.74
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.00	1.64	1.53
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Valeriane Ayayi — 14.15 MIN · 5.41 PTS · 10.96 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	11.50	6.47	5.41
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	4.50	2.69	2.30
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	1.50	1.12	0.92
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Sami Whitcomb — 14.30 MIN · 4.22 PTS · 10.01 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	0.00	4.52	4.22
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	0.00	1.66	1.58
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	0.00	1.70	1.58
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Temi Fagbenle — 12.58 MIN · 3.82 PTS · 9.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.63	1.20	3.30	8.00	4.15	3.82
REB	3.31	2.20	3.00	4.00	3.08	2.81
AST	1.00	0.20	0.80	3.00	0.97	0.89
FG3M	0.19	0.00	0.00

Kia Nurse — 13.64 MIN · 5.51 PTS · 9.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.78	5.40	4.70	6.00	5.09	5.51
REB	1.00	0.80	0.80	1.50	0.92	0.99
AST	0.84	1.20	1.30	0.50	1.01	1.08
FG3M	0.91	1.20	0.90

Lexi Held — 10.16 MIN · 3.00 PTS · 5.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	2.78	3.73	3.00
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	0.89	0.97	0.79
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.15	0.92
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

Best value plays

TOR

PHX

Per-player detail