WNBA Predictions

Team	Player	Reasons	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	14.7	13.8	-5.7%	7.6	7.5	-2.2%	8.0	7.6	-5.7%	38.2	36.6	-4.3%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	11.7	11.0	-5.7%	6.5	6.4	-2.3%	1.9	1.8	-5.8%	27.8	26.7	-3.7%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	19.6	18.5	-5.7%	2.9	2.8	-2.4%	2.2	2.1	-5.9%	27.7	26.3	-4.9%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	6.0	5.7	-5.6%	4.4	4.3	-2.3%	0.9	0.9	-5.5%	14.9	14.4	-3.5%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	7.0	6.6	-5.7%	1.7	1.6	-2.4%	1.7	1.6	-6.0%	14.2	13.6	-4.2%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.2	4.9	-5.7%	2.2	2.1	-2.3%	0.9	0.9	-5.4%	10.4	10.0	-4.0%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	4.4	4.2	-5.6%	1.6	1.6	-2.5%	1.7	1.6	-5.4%	10.4	9.9	-4.3%
PHX	Lexi Held	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	3.3	3.1	-5.7%	0.8	0.8	-2.4%	1.0	1.0	-5.8%	6.4	6.1	-4.9%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Kelsey Plum	star	32.1	22.7	2.7	5.9	1.1	0.0	3.0	2.4	31.3	36.9	medium	10%	30%
Alyssa Thomas	star	32.1	13.8	7.5	7.6	1.2	0.6	3.2	0.0	28.9	36.6	high	10%	10%
DeWanna Bonner	starter	26.6	11.0	6.4	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.6	1.3	19.2	26.7	medium	20%	0%
Kahleah Copper	star	31.0	18.5	2.8	2.1	0.7	0.1	2.5	1.5	23.4	26.3	high	20%	10%
Natasha Mack	rotation	15.2	5.7	4.3	0.9	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.0	10.9	14.4	high	30%	10%
Noemie Brochant	rotation	22.3	6.6	1.6	1.6	1.1	0.2	0.9	1.1	9.8	13.6	low	10%	0%
Valeriane Ayayi	rotation	13.6	4.9	2.1	0.9	0.6	0.2	1.1	0.5	7.9	10.0	low	30%	10%
Sami Whitcomb	bench	14.3	4.2	1.6	1.6	0.6	0.0	0.7	1.1	7.3	9.9	low	30%	20%
Lexi Held	bench	10.5	3.1	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.5	4.9	6.1	low	20%	40%
Jovana Nogic	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	high	0%	0%
Kyara Linskens	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Marta Suarez	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Shay Ciezki	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Bridget Carleton	star	28.9	15.9	5.0	2.3	1.4	0.4	1.1	3.2	23.2	30.3	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Kelsey Plum — 32.12 MIN · 22.71 PTS · 36.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	16.00	20.21	22.71
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	6.00	2.42	2.68
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	7.00	5.32	5.93
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90	1.00	2.12	2.38
FTM	4.56	3.20	4.40	5.00	4.38	4.85
STL	1.00	0.40	0.90	3.00	1.00	1.11
BLK	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TOV	2.94	2.20	2.70	1.00	2.72	2.99
MIN	31.42	24.95	29.14	34.67	29.68	32.12

Factors

Games played: 16
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.082
Def adj (PTS): 1.043
Opp DefRtg: 112.60 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Alyssa Thomas — 32.12 MIN · 13.85 PTS · 36.56 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	0.00	15.27	13.85
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	0.00	8.05	7.47
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	0.00	8.43	7.58
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Bridget Carleton — 28.91 MIN · 15.93 PTS · 30.26 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.66	20.00	17.10	6.00	16.07	15.93
REB	4.38	7.20	5.90	4.00	5.14	5.03
AST	2.13	1.80	2.50	2.00	2.30	2.26
FG3M	2.84	4.20	3.60

Carla Leite — 25.00 MIN · 16.31 PTS · 29.52 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.53	16.60	16.10	7.00	15.56	16.31
REB	2.23	1.40	1.90	2.00	2.00	2.07
AST	6.23	7.20	7.50	4.00	6.89	7.16
FG3M	0.80	1.00	0.80

DeWanna Bonner — 26.58 MIN · 11.02 PTS · 26.74 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	19.00	12.07	11.02
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	5.00	6.84	6.38
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	5.00	1.96	1.78
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Kahleah Copper — 31.02 MIN · 18.53 PTS · 26.34 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	0.00	20.39	18.53
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	0.00	3.05	2.83
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	0.00	2.32	2.09
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Megan DiLeo — 25.25 MIN · 14.28 PTS · 23.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.84	12.80	14.80	7.00	13.65	14.28
REB	4.03	4.80	4.40	2.00	4.30	4.44
AST	1.00	1.20	0.90	0.00	0.95	0.98
FG3M	1.23	1.00	1.30

Emily Engstler — 22.51 MIN · 8.52 PTS · 22.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.03	8.40	8.90	3.00	8.63	8.52
REB	5.27	4.40	4.80	5.00	5.06	4.93
AST	2.06	2.60	3.00	1.00	2.46	2.40
FG3M	1.06	1.40	1.10

Jordan Harrison — 13.96 MIN · 5.77 PTS · 14.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.57	6.40	5.57	0.00	5.70	5.77
REB	2.14	2.60	2.14	0.00	2.22	2.22
AST	3.71	3.80	3.71	0.00	3.74	3.76
FG3M	0.57	0.80	0.57

Natasha Mack — 15.16 MIN · 5.70 PTS · 14.36 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	16.00	7.66	5.70
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	4.00	5.66	4.30
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	2.00	1.16	0.86
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Teja Oblak — 12.98 MIN · 6.71 PTS · 14.25 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.16	6.80	6.80	11.00	6.78	6.71
REB	1.64	2.20	1.40	1.00	1.65	1.61
AST	3.00	3.60	3.00	4.00	3.20	3.15
FG3M	0.84	0.80	0.90

Noemie Brochant — 22.30 MIN · 6.62 PTS · 13.64 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	11.00	7.10	6.62
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.00	1.72	1.64
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	2.00	1.71	1.58
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Frieda Buhner — 15.38 MIN · 6.88 PTS · 12.47 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.33	5.00	7.40	5.00	6.83	6.88
REB	2.23	3.00	2.90	4.00	2.66	2.65
AST	0.77	1.00	1.10	0.00	0.90	0.90
FG3M	0.77	0.80	1.30

Karlie Samuelson — 17.05 MIN · 6.17 PTS · 11.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.71	7.00	5.90	13.00	5.65	6.17
REB	1.29	2.20	1.30	3.00	1.41	1.53
AST	0.90	1.00	0.90	1.00	0.92	1.00
FG3M	1.10	1.80	1.50

Serah Williams — 14.43 MIN · 5.29 PTS · 10.40 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.38	4.60	5.70	0.00	4.96	5.29
REB	2.45	1.80	2.40	0.00	2.36	2.49
AST	0.55	0.80	0.70	0.00	0.63	0.67
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Nyadiew Puoch — 18.92 MIN · 4.93 PTS · 10.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	9.20	4.90	0.00	4.42	4.93
REB	1.72	2.00	2.00	1.00	1.84	2.03
AST	0.66	0.40	0.30	0.00	0.50	0.55
FG3M	0.44	1.20	0.60

Valeriane Ayayi — 13.61 MIN · 4.93 PTS · 9.98 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	2.00	5.93	4.93
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	2.00	2.52	2.14
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	0.00	1.05	0.87
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Sami Whitcomb — 14.32 MIN · 4.18 PTS · 9.92 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	0.00	4.51	4.18
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	0.00	1.65	1.56
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	0.00	1.71	1.57
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Holly Winterburn — 11.27 MIN · 3.20 PTS · 8.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.45	3.40	2.70	0.00	2.69	3.20
REB	0.85	1.60	0.90	0.00	0.93	1.09
AST	1.85	2.20	1.80	0.00	1.92	2.27
FG3M	0.15	0.00	0.30

Lexi Held — 10.48 MIN · 3.13 PTS · 6.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	5.50	3.93	3.13
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	1.50	1.01	0.82
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	2.00	1.23	0.97
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

Best value plays

PHX

PDX

Per-player detail