WNBA Predictions

Team	Player	Reasons	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	14.3	13.5	-5.7%	7.4	7.3	-2.3%	7.7	7.3	-5.7%	36.9	35.3	-4.3%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	11.0	10.4	-5.7%	6.4	6.2	-2.3%	1.8	1.7	-5.7%	26.4	25.4	-3.8%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	19.1	18.0	-5.7%	2.9	2.8	-2.4%	2.1	2.0	-5.7%	26.7	25.4	-4.9%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.6	5.3	-5.7%	4.8	4.7	-2.3%	0.8	0.8	-6.0%	14.8	14.3	-3.5%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	6.8	6.4	-5.6%	1.7	1.7	-2.3%	1.5	1.4	-5.9%	13.6	13.0	-4.3%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.1	4.8	-5.7%	2.3	2.2	-2.2%	0.9	0.9	-5.4%	10.4	10.0	-3.9%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	4.3	4.1	-5.8%	1.6	1.6	-2.5%	1.7	1.6	-5.4%	10.3	9.9	-4.4%
PHX	Lexi Held	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	3.5	3.3	-5.7%	0.9	0.8	-2.3%	0.9	0.9	-5.3%	6.5	6.2	-4.6%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
A'ja Wilson	star	29.9	24.4	9.1	3.2	1.3	2.0	2.4	1.0	36.7	46.6	high	30%	20%
Jackie Young	star	29.8	20.2	4.3	6.2	0.8	0.2	2.2	2.6	30.6	37.1	high	50%	0%
Chelsea Gray	star	29.8	10.8	2.5	6.2	1.2	0.3	2.3	1.6	19.5	25.7	medium	40%	20%
NaLyssa Smith	starter	24.8	12.0	6.6	1.1	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.0	19.7	24.1	medium	20%	20%
Jewell Loyd	starter	21.8	6.5	1.8	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.8	1.3	9.8	13.3	medium	20%	10%
Mai Yamamoto	bench	13.5	6.8	0.5	2.2	1.0	0.0	0.5	1.4	9.5	13.1	medium	20%	20%
Ta'Niya Latson	deep	10.1	5.4	1.8	0.9	0.1	0.1	1.0	0.3	8.1	9.1	low	10%	0%
Brianna Turner	bench	17.0	2.5	2.9	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.8	0.0	5.7	8.4	low	10%	20%
Dana Evans	rotation	14.4	3.1	1.6	1.8	0.1	0.2	1.0	0.7	6.5	8.3	low	20%	0%
Stephanie Talbot	rotation	11.1	2.4	1.6	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.3	4.6	6.6	medium	20%	10%
Justine Pissott	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Kierstan Bell	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Kelsey Plum	star	32.4	23.7	2.7	5.8	1.0	0.0	3.0	2.6	32.2	37.5	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

A'ja Wilson — 29.92 MIN · 24.42 PTS · 46.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	25.91	21.20	26.70	24.33	25.52	24.42
REB	9.69	9.20	9.50	9.67	9.61	9.09
AST	3.13	2.80	3.70	3.33	3.38	3.21
FG3M	1.00	0.80	1.20	1.00	1.07	1.04
FTM	6.59	5.20	7.10	5.33	6.43	6.16
STL	1.44	0.80	1.20	2.67	1.41	1.33
BLK	2.06	2.60	2.30	1.67	2.17	2.02
TOV	2.53	3.40	2.50	1.67	2.58	2.37
MIN	32.16	33.90	33.24	28.40	32.52	29.92

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.996
Minute scale: 0.920
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Kelsey Plum — 32.37 MIN · 23.74 PTS · 37.49 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	32.50	21.09	23.74
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	4.00	2.41	2.67
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	5.50	5.17	5.78
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90

Jackie Young — 29.84 MIN · 20.17 PTS · 37.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.74	26.00	25.00	13.33	21.19	20.17
REB	4.50	4.80	5.00	3.00	4.52	4.25
AST	6.65	6.60	6.80	6.00	6.59	6.23
FG3M	2.24	3.60	3.00

Alyssa Thomas — 31.65 MIN · 13.50 PTS · 35.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	12.33	14.87	13.50
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	5.67	7.83	7.27
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	7.00	8.07	7.27
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Chelsea Gray — 29.81 MIN · 10.79 PTS · 25.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	10.60	12.40	8.00	11.49	10.79
REB	3.24	2.60	2.30	2.00	2.69	2.50
AST	7.00	5.80	6.00	9.00	6.66	6.20
FG3M	1.85	1.40	1.70

DeWanna Bonner — 25.71 MIN · 10.41 PTS · 25.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	8.33	11.40	10.41
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	4.67	6.69	6.25
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	2.00	1.83	1.66
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Kahleah Copper — 30.58 MIN · 18.02 PTS · 25.38 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	16.00	19.81	18.02
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	2.67	3.02	2.80
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	1.67	2.20	1.99
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

NaLyssa Smith — 24.84 MIN · 11.98 PTS · 24.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.82	10.40	11.60	15.33	11.85	11.98
REB	6.29	9.00	6.70	4.67	6.63	6.62
AST	0.94	1.80	1.20	1.00	1.09	1.09
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Natasha Mack — 15.12 MIN · 5.32 PTS · 14.26 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	5.00	7.14	5.32
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	11.50	6.12	4.67
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	0.50	1.06	0.78
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Jewell Loyd — 21.83 MIN · 6.48 PTS · 13.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.00	7.60	7.20	5.00	7.31	6.48
REB	2.30	2.00	2.20	1.67	2.10	1.84
AST	1.48	2.00	1.50	2.00	1.63	1.43
FG3M	1.70	1.00	1.50

Mai Yamamoto — 13.47 MIN · 6.83 PTS · 13.11 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.60	5.60	5.60	0.00	5.66	6.83
REB	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.41	0.49
AST	1.80	1.80	1.80	0.00	1.81	2.17
FG3M	1.20	1.20	1.20

Noemie Brochant — 21.70 MIN · 6.37 PTS · 13.00 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	6.00	6.81	6.37
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.33	1.78	1.70
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	0.67	1.55	1.43
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Valeriane Ayayi — 14.24 MIN · 4.83 PTS · 10.03 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	2.50	5.80	4.83
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	4.00	2.65	2.25
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	1.00	1.06	0.88
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Sami Whitcomb — 14.23 MIN · 4.08 PTS · 9.88 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	0.00	4.41	4.08
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	3.00	1.68	1.59
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	3.00	1.70	1.57
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Ta'Niya Latson — 10.14 MIN · 5.43 PTS · 9.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.13	5.80	3.90	0.00	3.57	5.43
REB	1.00	1.00	1.40	0.00	1.18	1.78
AST	0.47	0.80	0.70	0.00	0.57	0.86
FG3M	0.20	0.40	0.20

Brianna Turner — 17.00 MIN · 2.50 PTS · 8.42 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.81	1.60	3.00	0.67	2.13	2.50
REB	2.25	2.20	2.50	4.00	2.52	2.91
AST	0.25	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.28	0.33
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Dana Evans — 14.38 MIN · 3.08 PTS · 8.26 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.40	3.00	3.40	0.00	3.40	3.08
REB	1.80	2.00	1.80	0.00	1.82	1.62
AST	2.00	2.00	2.00	0.00	2.02	1.82
FG3M	0.80	0.60	0.80

Stephanie Talbot — 11.06 MIN · 2.41 PTS · 6.60 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.40	3.00	2.90	3.00	3.10	2.41
REB	2.54	1.40	1.00	3.67	2.13	1.63
AST	1.03	0.00	0.40	0.67	0.78	0.60
FG3M	0.46	0.40	0.40

Lexi Held — 10.73 MIN · 3.30 PTS · 6.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	9.00	4.14	3.30
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	2.00	1.04	0.85
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.13	0.90
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

Best value plays

LVA

PHX

Per-player detail