Predictions

Tue, Jun 30, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Las Vegas AcesAway

88.1

24-113rdL10 6-4

New York LibertyHome

92.3

21-146thL10 8-2

Total

180.4

📺 Prime Video

Game lines unavailable: No event for LVA @ NYL

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

LVA

Injury impact on predictions17 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
LVA	Jewell Loyd	Teammates out: +4.3 min, 25% usage boost	4.3	1.3	8.7	8.9	+3.2%	2.4	2.4	+1.7%	1.7	1.9	+10.4%	17.1	17.9	+4.7%
LVA	NaLyssa Smith	Teammates out: +2.0 min, 12% usage boost	2.0	1.1	13.9	14.3	+3.3%	8.0	8.2	+1.7%	1.4	1.5	+2.8%	28.6	29.4	+2.5%
LVA	Stephanie Talbot	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 9% usage boost	1.5	1.1	3.8	3.9	+2.4%	2.2	2.3	+0.9%	0.9	0.9	+3.3%	9.8	10.0	+1.7%
LVA	Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 6% usage boost	1.0	1.1	8.5	8.6	+1.5%	4.0	4.0	0.0%	0.8	0.8	+3.9%	17.6	17.8	+1.2%
LVA	Brianna Turner	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 6% usage boost	1.0	1.1	3.8	3.9	+1.3%	3.7	3.7	-0.3%	0.6	0.6	+1.8%	11.9	12.0	+0.4%
LVA	Kierstan Bell	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 6% usage boost	1.0	1.1	3.4	3.4	+1.5%	2.5	2.5	0.0%	0.9	0.9	+3.4%	9.5	9.6	+1.3%
LVA	Jackie Young	Teammates out: +0.8 min, 5% usage boost	0.8	1.0	27.1	26.4	-2.5%	5.4	5.3	-2.2%	8.2	8.0	-2.7%	48.7	47.4	-2.7%
LVA	Chelsea Gray	Teammates out: +0.8 min, 5% usage boost	0.8	1.0	14.4	14.0	-2.6%	3.3	3.3	-2.1%	7.6	7.4	-2.8%	33.1	32.1	-2.9%
NYL	Marine Johannes	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 4% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.5	1.0	8.7	9.2	+5.3%	1.6	1.6	+1.9%	1.8	1.8	+1.7%	15.5	16.2	+4.4%
NYL	Rebekah Gardner	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 4% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.5	1.0	5.2	5.5	+5.4%	2.9	3.0	+2.0%	1.2	1.3	+4.1%	12.1	12.6	+4.3%
NYL	Pauline Astier	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.3	1.0	8.3	8.8	+6.3%	1.9	1.9	+3.2%	2.9	2.9	+0.3%	16.1	16.8	+4.1%
NYL	Han Xu	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.3	1.0	7.3	7.6	+4.4%	2.9	2.9	+1.0%	0.6	0.6	+3.4%	14.0	14.5	+3.9%
NYL	Raquel Carrera	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.3	1.0	2.2	2.3	+4.5%	1.6	1.6	+1.2%	0.7	0.8	+16.4%	5.6	6.0	+7.0%
NYL	Breanna Stewart	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	22.1	21.6	-2.5%	8.3	8.3	-0.7%	3.9	3.7	-5.1%	43.2	42.1	-2.5%
NYL	Jonquel Jones	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	15.1	14.7	-2.5%	10.5	10.4	-0.8%	3.6	3.4	-5.0%	38.8	37.9	-2.2%
NYL	Sabrina Ionescu	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	18.1	17.7	-2.5%	4.5	4.4	-0.7%	4.8	4.6	-5.0%	32.4	31.5	-2.9%
NYL	Leonie Fiebich	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	11.6	11.3	-2.5%	2.8	2.8	-0.7%	2.0	1.9	-5.0%	21.1	20.6	-2.7%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Jackie Young	star	39.0	26.4	5.3	8.0	0.9	0.3	2.9	3.1	39.7	47.4	high	10%	30%
Chelsea Gray	star	38.8	14.0	3.3	7.4	1.4	0.3	3.0	2.1	24.6	32.1	medium	0%	30%
NaLyssa Smith	rotation	30.6	14.3	8.2	1.5	0.8	0.7	1.0	0.0	24.0	29.4	medium	0%	40%
Jewell Loyd	starter	29.3	8.9	2.4	1.9	1.2	0.2	1.1	1.9	13.2	17.9	medium	10%	30%
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	bench	16.5	8.6	4.0	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.4	13.4	17.8	low	10%	40%
Brianna Turner	bench	24.6	3.9	3.7	0.6	0.6	1.0	1.2	0.0	8.1	12.0	low	10%	20%
Stephanie Talbot	rotation	16.1	3.9	2.3	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.6	7.1	10.0	medium	10%	60%
Kierstan Bell	bench	14.8	3.4	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.7	6.8	9.6	low	10%	30%
A'ja Wilson	star	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Justine Pissott	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Mai Yamamoto	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Dana Evans	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Ta'Niya Latson	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Breanna Stewart	star	33.6	21.6	8.3	3.7	1.2	1.4	1.9	0.8	33.6	42.1	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Jackie Young — 38.99 MIN · 26.41 PTS · 47.37 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.74	26.00	25.00	24.00	22.17	26.41
REB	4.50	4.80	5.00	3.00	4.51	5.32
AST	6.65	6.60	6.80	8.00	6.74	7.96
FG3M	2.24	3.60	3.00	2.00	2.62	3.11
FTM	3.09	5.60	5.20	6.00	4.03	4.69
STL	0.88	0.20	0.60	1.00	0.76	0.86
BLK	0.29	0.00	0.10	0.50	0.23	0.27
TOV	2.35	2.60	2.60	2.00	2.40	2.89
MIN	32.53	33.99	33.10	36.70	33.27	38.99

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.172
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Breanna Stewart — 33.63 MIN · 21.59 PTS · 42.11 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.97	19.20	21.80	20.00	20.68	21.59
REB	8.29	6.60	8.10	7.00	7.88	8.27
AST	3.24	4.40	4.40	3.00	3.71	3.74
FG3M	0.79	0.40	0.90

Jonquel Jones — 29.80 MIN · 14.69 PTS · 37.88 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.47	14.80	13.50	12.33	13.74	14.69
REB	9.38	11.60	9.90	6.67	9.73	10.45
AST	2.88	3.40	3.70	3.33	3.32	3.43
FG3M	1.79	2.20	1.50

Chelsea Gray — 38.76 MIN · 14.01 PTS · 32.11 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	10.60	12.40	13.50	11.98	14.01
REB	3.24	2.60	2.30	4.00	2.81	3.26
AST	7.00	5.80	6.00	6.00	6.37	7.38
FG3M	1.85	1.40	1.70

Sabrina Ionescu — 30.84 MIN · 17.69 PTS · 31.50 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.00	15.40	19.60	12.00	17.04	17.69
REB	3.96	3.40	4.30	5.67	4.24	4.43
AST	4.52	4.40	4.90	3.67	4.57	4.59
FG3M	2.09	1.60	2.50

NaLyssa Smith — 30.59 MIN · 14.32 PTS · 29.36 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.82	10.40	11.60	7.00	11.00	14.32
REB	6.29	9.00	6.70	3.67	6.44	8.16
AST	0.94	1.80	1.20	1.67	1.16	1.48
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Leonie Fiebich — 31.02 MIN · 11.33 PTS · 20.58 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.00	12.60	11.00	12.00	10.52	11.33
REB	2.57	1.60	2.80	1.00	2.56	2.77
AST	1.86	1.80	1.80	1.00	1.83	1.91
FG3M	1.86	2.60	2.20

Jewell Loyd — 29.26 MIN · 8.93 PTS · 17.92 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.00	7.60	7.20	4.67	7.27	8.93
REB	2.30	2.00	2.20	1.00	2.00	2.39
AST	1.48	2.00	1.50	0.33	1.46	1.91
FG3M	1.70	1.00	1.50

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus — 16.51 MIN · 8.61 PTS · 17.82 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.91	3.80	6.00	14.00	5.48	8.61
REB	2.48	2.80	2.60	6.00	2.64	4.04
AST	0.61	0.00	0.40	0.00	0.50	0.80
FG3M	0.17	0.00	0.20

Pauline Astier — 19.10 MIN · 8.78 PTS · 16.80 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.43	7.80	8.40	10.67	8.82	8.78
REB	2.46	2.00	1.60	1.67	2.02	1.93
AST	3.49	3.20	3.00	2.33	3.12	2.91
FG3M	0.43	0.20	0.30

Marine Johannes — 16.70 MIN · 9.16 PTS · 16.19 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.06	10.20	8.90	11.00	9.33	9.16
REB	2.19	1.00	1.30	1.00	1.72	1.62
AST	2.41	1.40	1.20	2.00	1.89	1.78
FG3M	2.22	2.60	2.30

Han Xu — 14.63 MIN · 7.62 PTS · 14.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.14	8.40	8.20	9.67	7.47	7.62
REB	2.51	4.40	3.60	2.67	3.00	2.93
AST	0.71	0.60	0.60	0.33	0.60	0.60
FG3M	0.86	1.00	1.20

Rebekah Gardner — 13.59 MIN · 5.50 PTS · 12.57 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.15	5.40	6.00	8.50	5.78	5.50
REB	2.55	3.80	3.70	6.00	3.29	2.99
AST	1.27	1.20	1.40	1.50	1.36	1.27
FG3M	0.24	0.00	0.20

Brianna Turner — 24.61 MIN · 3.86 PTS · 11.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.81	1.60	3.00	4.00	2.41	3.86
REB	2.25	2.20	2.50	3.00	2.36	3.67
AST	0.25	0.40	0.40	1.00	0.36	0.58
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Stephanie Talbot — 16.10 MIN · 3.90 PTS · 9.98 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.40	3.00	2.90	4.33	3.23	3.90
REB	2.54	1.40	1.00	2.00	1.92	2.26
AST	1.03	0.00	0.40	0.67	0.78	0.94
FG3M	0.46	0.40	0.40

Kierstan Bell — 14.78 MIN · 3.42 PTS · 9.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.04	1.80	3.20	2.50	2.51	3.42
REB	1.61	2.00	1.80	3.50	1.87	2.48
AST	0.70	0.80	0.50	1.50	0.67	0.92
FG3M	0.43	0.40	0.70

Raquel Carrera — 8.78 MIN · 2.32 PTS · 5.96 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.63	0.80	1.00	4.00	1.46	2.32
REB	1.11	1.20	0.70	4.00	1.08	1.64
AST	0.37	0.80	0.50	2.00	0.48	0.85
FG3M	0.11	0.00	0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.027
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.051
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.151
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.021
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.208
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 14
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.060
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.52

L50.15

L100.21

h2h0.02

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.142
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.484
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 0.898
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 0.894
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 0.938
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 0.866
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.514
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.130
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.288
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 19
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.998
Minute scale: 1.462
Def adj (PTS): 0.996
Opp DefRtg: 107.50 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11