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Predictions

Thu, May 28, 2026

Data current — through Aug 17

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Las Vegas AcesAway

93.0

Record: 24-12 | 3rd in standingsL10 Record: 6-4

Dallas WingsHome

91.7

Record: 20-16 | 8th in standingsL10 Record: 3-7

Total

184.7

📺 Prime Video

Game lines unavailable: No event for LVA @ DAL

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

LVA

Dana Evans

Injury impact on predictions10 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
DAL	Awak Kuier	Teammates out: +5.7 min, 6% usage boost	5.7	1.1	8.2	8.7	+5.7%	4.8	4.9	+1.9%	1.1	1.4	+27.0%	20.4	22.2	+8.7%
DAL	Maddy Siegrist	Teammates out: +4.0 min, 4% usage boost	4.0	1.0	7.3	7.6	+4.8%	3.2	3.3	+0.6%	1.0	1.2	+21.4%	15.0	16.0	+6.3%
DAL	Odyssey Sims	Teammates out: +2.8 min, 3% usage boost	2.8	1.0	5.8	6.1	+5.7%	1.4	1.4	+2.2%	2.2	2.5	+11.3%	11.7	12.5	+7.4%
DAL	Aziaha James	Teammates out: +2.5 min, 3% usage boost	2.5	1.0	7.4	7.7	+4.7%	2.9	2.9	+1.0%	1.3	1.5	+15.0%	14.9	15.8	+5.9%
LVA	Jewell Loyd	Teammates out: +4.1 min, 8% usage boost	4.1	1.1	9.1	9.7	+6.0%	2.4	2.5	+2.1%	1.6	1.7	+9.7%	17.1	18.2	+6.5%
LVA	Stephanie Talbot	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 3% usage boost	1.5	1.0	3.1	3.3	+5.1%	2.1	2.2	+1.4%	0.9	0.9	+3.4%	8.8	9.1	+3.5%
LVA	NaLyssa Smith	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 2% usage boost	1.2	1.0	12.2	12.7	+4.3%	8.0	8.2	+2.0%	1.0	1.0	0.0%	25.9	26.6	+2.8%
LVA	Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost	1.0	1.0	6.8	7.0	+4.1%	3.1	3.1	0.0%	0.8	0.8	+3.7%	14.2	14.6	+3.2%
LVA	Brianna Turner	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost	1.0	1.0	2.5	2.6	+4.4%	2.7	2.8	+0.4%	0.4	0.4	+2.8%	8.2	8.4	+2.4%
LVA	Kierstan Bell	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost	1.0	1.0	2.9	3.0	+4.2%	1.8	1.8	0.0%	0.7	0.7	+2.9%	7.6	7.8	+2.9%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
A'ja Wilson	starter	35.4	28.2	10.0	3.1	1.3	1.9	2.7	1.0	41.3	52.3	high	10%	20%
Jackie Young	starter	34.6	21.8	4.7	6.8	0.8	0.2	2.9	2.6	33.3	39.6	high	10%	10%
Chelsea Gray	star	36.4	12.4	3.0	7.2	1.3	0.3	3.0	1.7	22.6	29.3	medium	10%	20%
NaLyssa Smith	rotation	27.6	12.7	8.2	1.0	0.7	0.6	0.9	0.0	21.9	26.6	medium	10%	40%
Jewell Loyd	starter	27.7	9.7	2.5	1.7	1.0	0.2	1.1	2.0	13.8	18.2	medium	10%	30%
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	bench	13.3	7.0	3.1	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.2	11.0	14.6	low	20%	40%
Stephanie Talbot	rotation	14.5	3.3	2.2	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.4	6.4	9.1	medium	20%	10%
Brianna Turner	bench	18.5	2.6	2.8	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.0	5.8	8.4	low	10%	30%
Kierstan Bell	bench	11.9	3.0	1.8	0.7	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.6	5.5	7.8	low	10%	0%
Justine Pissott	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Dana Evans	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Mai Yamamoto	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Ta'Niya Latson	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Jessica Shepard	star	33.6	14.7	12.3	5.3	0.8	0.1	1.9	0.0	32.4	40.3	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

A'ja Wilson — 35.40 MIN · 28.22 PTS · 52.30 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	26.09	23.00	27.30	23.67	26.04	28.22
REB	9.61	9.40	9.60	7.00	9.23	10.00
AST	3.06	2.20	3.40	1.67	2.94	3.09
FG3M	1.00	0.80	1.00	0.33	0.91	0.98
FTM	6.73	6.20	8.10	3.33	6.86	7.36
STL	1.45	1.20	1.30	0.67	1.24	1.30
BLK	2.03	2.20	2.00	0.00	1.80	1.86
TOV	2.48	3.40	2.60	2.00	2.52	2.74
MIN	32.20	34.63	33.83	30.74	33.00	35.40

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.993
Minute scale: 1.073
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.70 vs league 107.70
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Jessica Shepard — 33.61 MIN · 14.72 PTS · 40.31 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.91	9.40	11.30	19.67	13.00	14.72
REB	11.24	7.60	10.30	16.33	10.87	12.32
AST	5.09	2.60	4.80	7.67	4.91	5.33
FG3M	0.00	0.00

Jackie Young — 34.65 MIN · 21.82 PTS · 39.60 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.43	22.00	23.40	13.67	20.38	21.82
REB	4.40	2.80	4.70	5.00	4.41	4.72
AST	6.71	6.40	6.50	6.00	6.55	6.79
FG3M	2.23	3.20	2.80

Paige Bueckers — 37.57 MIN · 22.97 PTS · 39.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.47	22.40	19.50	18.33	20.09	22.97
REB	4.06	3.20	3.70	3.33	3.77	4.31
AST	5.76	5.20	4.70	6.33	5.22	5.72
FG3M	1.74	1.40	1.70

Chelsea Gray — 36.40 MIN · 12.39 PTS · 29.32 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	9.60	12.20	6.67	11.32	12.39
REB	3.23	2.60	2.20	2.67	2.73	2.99
AST	7.06	6.40	6.20	8.67	6.79	7.20
FG3M	1.86	1.60	1.60

Arike Ogunbowale — 33.98 MIN · 17.08 PTS · 29.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.86	13.60	16.60	9.00	15.05	17.08
REB	3.17	3.20	3.50	1.67	3.21	3.65
AST	3.08	2.80	3.70	3.67	3.34	3.63
FG3M	1.69	0.60	1.30

NaLyssa Smith — 27.56 MIN · 12.72 PTS · 26.65 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.97	11.00	11.50	7.33	11.32	12.72
REB	6.46	9.60	7.40	9.67	7.51	8.15
AST	0.94	1.80	1.10	0.00	0.95	1.02
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Azzi Fudd — 38.23 MIN · 15.35 PTS · 26.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	16.00	13.02	15.35
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	1.33	1.57	1.86
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	1.33	1.81	2.05
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Awak Kuier — 22.86 MIN · 8.66 PTS · 22.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.55	6.60	5.20	9.00	5.88	8.66
REB	3.21	5.00	3.30	3.33	3.50	4.90
AST	0.91	1.20	0.70	0.33	0.80	1.41
FG3M	0.58	0.80	0.40

Jewell Loyd — 27.68 MIN · 9.68 PTS · 18.18 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.06	7.80	7.40	12.67	8.28	9.68
REB	2.32	1.60	2.30	2.00	2.22	2.47
AST	1.44	1.60	1.50	1.00	1.42	1.70
FG3M	1.71	1.40	1.50

Maddy Siegrist — 15.37 MIN · 7.62 PTS · 15.96 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.12	5.80	6.70	5.00	6.22	7.62
REB	2.70	3.00	2.90	3.00	2.81	3.26
AST	0.82	1.00	1.10	0.33	0.89	1.25
FG3M	0.79	0.80	1.00

Aziaha James — 12.81 MIN · 7.74 PTS · 15.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	6.67	6.13	7.74
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	2.00	2.40	2.89
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	1.67	1.11	1.53
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus — 13.27 MIN · 7.03 PTS · 14.61 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.91	3.80	6.00	8.67	5.51	7.03
REB	2.48	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.59	3.13
AST	0.61	0.00	0.40	2.00	0.66	0.84
FG3M	0.17	0.00	0.20

Odyssey Sims — 17.24 MIN · 6.12 PTS · 12.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.41	8.00	5.10	2.00	5.34	6.12
REB	1.07	2.20	1.50	1.00	1.26	1.38
AST	2.19	2.80	2.00	0.00	2.06	2.46
FG3M	0.56	1.20	0.60

Stephanie Talbot — 14.53 MIN · 3.30 PTS · 9.08 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.36	2.60	2.90	2.00	2.94	3.30
REB	2.50	1.20	1.10	2.67	2.02	2.16
AST	1.00	0.00	0.40	1.33	0.82	0.90
FG3M	0.44	0.40	0.40

Brianna Turner — 18.47 MIN · 2.63 PTS · 8.43 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.76	1.60	2.60	1.00	1.97	2.63
REB	2.24	2.00	2.50	0.00	2.17	2.75
AST	0.24	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.28	0.37
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Kierstan Bell — 11.95 MIN · 3.00 PTS · 7.81 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.04	1.80	3.20	4.00	2.66	3.00
REB	1.61	2.00	1.80	0.67	1.66	1.78
AST	0.70	0.80	0.50	1.00	0.64	0.71
FG3M	0.43	0.40	0.70