Predictions

Sat, Jul 4, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Golden State ValkyriesAway

85.1

24-92ndL10 8-2

Atlanta DreamHome

83.9

21-124thL10 8-2

Total

169.0

📺 CBS, Paramount+

Game lines unavailable: No event for GSV @ ATL

Injury report

5 Out applied to these projections.

GSV

Injury impact on predictions9 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
ATL	Sika Kone	Teammates out: +4.0 min, 6% usage boost	4.0	1.1	3.2	3.4	+5.3%	1.9	1.9	+1.0%	0.3	0.5	+64.5%	6.3	7.1	+12.0%
ATL	Isobel Borlase	Teammates out: +3.2 min, 5% usage boost	3.2	1.0	4.9	5.2	+5.5%	1.8	1.8	+1.1%	1.0	1.2	+19.4%	9.1	9.8	+8.1%
ATL	Te-Hina Paopao	Teammates out: +3.2 min, 5% usage boost	3.2	1.0	3.0	3.1	+5.8%	0.6	0.6	+1.8%	1.4	1.7	+19.4%	6.3	7.1	+11.5%
ATL	Madina Okot	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 2% usage boost	1.6	1.0	7.1	7.5	+5.5%	3.9	4.0	+1.0%	0.2	0.2	+9.5%	13.0	13.6	+5.1%
GSV	Laeticia Amihere	Teammates out: +3.1 min, 0% usage boost	3.1	1.0	3.0	3.1	+3.6%	3.2	3.2	+0.6%	1.0	1.2	+20.2%	10.9	11.9	+8.9%
GSV	Cecilia Zandalasini	Teammates out: +2.5 min, 0% usage boost	2.5	1.0	10.1	10.6	+4.6%	2.4	2.5	+1.6%	2.1	2.2	+7.2%	19.1	20.1	+5.2%
GSV	Kaitlyn Chen	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 0% usage boost	1.6	1.0	7.9	8.2	+3.8%	1.2	1.2	+0.9%	2.8	2.9	+4.6%	13.7	14.3	+4.1%
GSV	Tiffany Hayes	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost	1.3	1.0	10.1	10.6	+4.6%	1.9	2.0	+1.5%	3.0	3.0	+2.0%	18.9	19.5	+3.4%
GSV	Kaila Charles	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost	1.3	1.0	6.1	6.3	+3.3%	3.9	4.0	+1.5%	1.4	1.4	+0.7%	15.3	15.6	+2.2%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Veronica Burton	starter	26.7	11.5	3.2	4.9	1.4	0.3	1.4	1.4	19.6	26.2	medium	10%	10%
Gabby Williams	starter	22.3	13.0	2.7	1.9	1.5	0.1	1.3	1.4	17.6	22.5	high	10%	30%
Cecilia Zandalasini	rotation	22.5	10.6	2.5	2.2	1.2	0.3	1.7	1.8	15.3	20.1	medium	20%	20%
Tiffany Hayes	bench	18.1	10.6	2.0	3.0	0.9	0.2	1.4	0.6	15.6	19.5	low	10%	10%
Kiah Stokes	rotation	23.5	4.6	5.8	1.2	0.5	1.9	0.6	0.7	11.7	18.5	medium	10%	20%
Janelle Salaun	rotation	18.1	11.2	2.9	0.8	0.6	0.1	0.7	2.2	14.9	18.1	medium	30%	0%
Kayla Thornton	starter	22.8	8.0	4.3	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.8	1.7	13.1	16.3	low	20%	10%
Kaila Charles	rotation	18.9	6.3	4.0	1.4	1.0	0.2	0.9	0.8	11.7	15.6	low	10%	0%
Kaitlyn Chen	bench	17.4	8.2	1.2	2.9	0.4	0.0	1.9	0.6	12.3	14.3	low	20%	0%
Laeticia Amihere	bench	11.5	3.1	3.2	1.3	0.5	1.1	0.8	0.2	7.6	11.9	low	10%	0%
Ashten Prechtel	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Juste Jocyte	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Nadia Fingall	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	medium	0%	0%
Miela Sowah	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Angel Reese	star	29.4	15.1	12.1	2.1	1.8	0.7	2.6	0.2	29.3	38.6	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Angel Reese — 29.43 MIN · 15.08 PTS · 38.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.59	14.40	16.90	14.00	15.56	15.08
REB	12.00	14.20	12.60	12.33	12.54	12.12
AST	2.41	2.20	2.20	2.33	2.23	2.06
FG3M	0.19	0.20	0.40	0.00	0.23	0.23
FTM	4.59	3.00	4.70	5.33	4.50	4.36
STL	1.69	1.20	1.90	3.00	1.87	1.75
BLK	0.78	1.60	1.00	0.00	0.81	0.74
TOV	3.19	1.80	2.60	2.33	2.78	2.64
MIN	30.61	29.97	30.69	30.15	30.53	29.43

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.976
Minute scale: 0.964
Def adj (PTS): 0.939
Opp DefRtg: 101.40 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Rhyne Howard — 32.49 MIN · 16.70 PTS · 34.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.78	22.40	16.20	13.33	17.14	16.70
REB	3.88	3.80	4.10	5.00	4.09	3.97
AST	3.63	4.40	4.60	2.67	3.99	3.71
FG3M	3.31	4.60	3.30

Jordin Canada — 32.19 MIN · 11.88 PTS · 29.34 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.45	12.40	11.90	12.67	11.73	11.88
REB	3.70	3.60	3.40	3.67	3.57	3.61
AST	7.48	6.20	7.90	4.00	7.03	6.81
FG3M	0.82	1.40	0.90

Allisha Gray — 30.72 MIN · 18.67 PTS · 28.60 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.24	19.40	20.50	14.67	19.42	18.67
REB	3.12	3.20	2.90	2.33	2.97	2.85
AST	2.36	3.00	2.60	1.67	2.46	2.26
FG3M	1.70	2.00	2.00

Veronica Burton — 26.72 MIN · 11.50 PTS · 26.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.33	14.20	13.00	13.00	12.79	11.50
REB	3.48	4.00	3.80	2.33	3.51	3.19
AST	5.55	5.80	6.20	4.33	5.63	4.89
FG3M	1.39	2.00	1.70

Gabby Williams — 22.28 MIN · 12.97 PTS · 22.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.65	13.60	11.90	19.33	13.78	12.97
REB	3.23	2.80	2.40	3.33	2.79	2.66
AST	2.16	1.80	1.90	3.00	2.12	1.94
FG3M	1.65	1.00	1.00

Cecilia Zandalasini — 22.49 MIN · 10.58 PTS · 20.05 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.45	9.00	8.80	9.00	8.84	10.58
REB	2.00	3.40	2.30	1.67	2.15	2.47
AST	1.69	2.60	1.80	2.33	1.84	2.24
FG3M	1.34	2.00	1.60

Tiffany Hayes — 18.10 MIN · 10.60 PTS · 19.53 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.35	14.40	11.20	5.67	9.39	10.60
REB	1.61	3.40	2.30	1.00	1.82	1.97
AST	2.48	3.40	3.20	2.00	2.78	3.04
FG3M	0.52	0.80	0.50

Kiah Stokes — 23.51 MIN · 4.64 PTS · 18.48 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.97	5.80	4.40	6.33	4.59	4.64
REB	5.34	7.20	5.80	5.33	5.70	5.81
AST	1.25	1.60	1.10	1.00	1.24	1.21
FG3M	0.56	0.60	0.60

Janelle Salaun — 18.09 MIN · 11.20 PTS · 18.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.13	15.00	14.90	9.33	13.39	11.20
REB	3.75	2.40	3.40	3.67	3.38	2.85
AST	1.09	1.20	1.20	0.33	1.02	0.83
FG3M	2.50	2.60	2.70

Kayla Thornton — 22.77 MIN · 8.02 PTS · 16.34 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.52	9.60	9.30	6.33	8.68	8.02
REB	5.00	4.20	4.80	3.67	4.65	4.34
AST	0.76	1.00	0.90	0.67	0.83	0.75
FG3M	1.67	1.80	2.00

Kaila Charles — 18.89 MIN · 6.30 PTS · 15.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.15	7.20	6.60	3.67	6.37	6.30
REB	4.45	3.40	3.80	5.00	4.15	3.98
AST	1.36	2.00	1.40	1.67	1.48	1.41
FG3M	0.70	0.80	0.90

Naz Hillmon — 22.64 MIN · 7.38 PTS · 14.76 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.13	8.20	10.00	2.33	8.64	7.38
REB	4.41	4.40	3.50	3.33	3.96	3.38
AST	1.53	2.00	1.70	0.67	1.58	1.29
FG3M	1.13	1.20	1.40

Kaitlyn Chen — 17.40 MIN · 8.24 PTS · 14.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.00	3.60	6.60	5.67	6.34	8.24
REB	1.15	0.80	0.70	1.00	0.94	1.17
AST	2.03	2.60	2.80	1.00	2.25	2.93
FG3M	0.52	0.40	0.40

Madina Okot — 10.81 MIN · 7.53 PTS · 13.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.50	1.60	5.20	11.33	5.63	7.53
REB	3.47	2.20	3.10	3.00	3.13	3.96
AST	0.19	0.00	0.10	0.33	0.17	0.23
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Laeticia Amihere — 11.49 MIN · 3.14 PTS · 11.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.14	1.00	2.90	2.67	2.87	3.14
REB	3.28	2.60	2.70	4.33	3.04	3.20
AST	1.07	0.60	0.90	1.33	0.99	1.25
FG3M	0.14	0.00	0.10

Isobel Borlase — 15.34 MIN · 5.17 PTS · 9.79 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.45	1.80	5.00	1.33	4.08	5.17
REB	1.45	1.60	1.60	1.33	1.51	1.81
AST	0.91	0.80	0.80	1.33	0.86	1.23
FG3M	0.45	0.40	0.50

Sika Kone — 10.52 MIN · 3.38 PTS · 7.11 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.71	0.00	1.50	4.00	1.72	3.38
REB	1.11	0.40	1.00	1.50	1.05	1.95
AST	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.17	0.51
FG3M	0.14	0.00	0.20

Te-Hina Paopao — 10.10 MIN · 3.12 PTS · 7.07 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.88	1.00	2.40	1.67	3.07	3.12
REB	0.92	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.60	0.58
AST	1.58	1.00	1.50	1.00	1.45	1.66
FG3M	0.92	0.20	0.60