Predictions

Thu, Jul 9, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Seattle StormAway

84.4

7-2815thL10 1-9

Atlanta DreamHome

91.7

21-124thL10 8-2

Total

176.1

📺 Prime Video

Game lines unavailable: No event for SEA @ ATL

Injury report

5 Out applied to these projections.

SEA

Injury impact on predictions9 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
ATL	Sika Kone	Teammates out: +4.3 min, 6% usage boost	4.3	1.1	3.2	3.4	+5.6%	1.9	2.0	+1.0%	0.4	0.7	+71.8%	6.3	7.1	+12.8%
ATL	Isobel Borlase	Teammates out: +4.0 min, 5% usage boost	4.0	1.1	5.0	5.3	+5.6%	1.8	1.8	+1.1%	0.9	1.2	+25.5%	9.2	10.1	+9.6%
ATL	Te-Hina Paopao	Teammates out: +4.0 min, 5% usage boost	4.0	1.1	3.2	3.4	+5.6%	0.6	0.6	+1.6%	1.6	2.0	+25.3%	7.1	8.1	+14.2%
ATL	Madina Okot	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 2% usage boost	1.6	1.0	6.0	6.4	+5.6%	3.9	4.0	+1.3%	0.2	0.2	+11.8%	11.6	12.2	+4.9%
SEA	Zia Cooke	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 0% usage boost	1.0	1.0	6.1	6.5	+5.9%	1.1	1.2	+1.7%	0.6	0.6	+1.6%	8.8	9.3	+5.0%
SEA	Katie Lou Samuelson	Teammates out: +0.8 min, 0% usage boost	0.8	1.0	4.5	4.6	+4.3%	1.6	1.7	+1.8%	0.6	0.6	0.0%	8.6	8.9	+3.5%
SEA	Ezi Magbegor	Teammates out: +0.2 min, 0% usage boost	0.2	1.0	5.4	5.4	+0.2%	3.6	3.6	+0.8%	1.7	1.7	-4.0%	15.2	15.2	-0.3%
SEA	Jordan Horston	Teammates out: +0.2 min, 0% usage boost	0.2	1.0	5.2	5.2	+0.4%	3.1	3.1	+0.6%	1.0	1.0	-3.8%	12.8	12.8	-0.2%
SEA	Stefanie Dolson	Teammates out: +0.1 min, 0% usage boost	0.1	1.0	2.1	2.1	-0.5%	1.5	1.5	0.0%	0.8	0.7	-3.9%	6.1	6.1	-1.0%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Dominique Malonga	starter	25.1	18.2	9.3	1.6	1.0	1.5	2.7	0.8	29.1	36.2	high	30%	10%
Flau'jae Johnson	starter	27.7	15.3	4.4	2.9	1.7	0.6	2.9	1.1	22.6	28.8	medium	30%	10%
Natisha Hiedeman	starter	30.3	15.3	2.8	5.2	0.9	0.1	1.9	1.6	23.3	28.4	medium	10%	20%
Awa Fam	starter	24.9	9.2	5.6	1.8	0.7	0.8	1.6	1.4	16.6	21.9	medium	10%	30%
Jade Melbourne	rotation	24.8	10.0	1.9	4.1	1.0	0.2	1.8	0.7	16.0	20.3	medium	10%	10%
Ezi Magbegor	bench	16.4	5.4	3.6	1.7	0.6	0.8	1.0	0.4	10.8	15.2	medium	11%	11%
Jordan Horston	rotation	15.7	5.2	3.1	1.0	0.8	0.4	1.2	0.4	9.3	12.8	low	10%	0%
Zia Cooke	bench	11.0	6.5	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.7	0.7	8.3	9.3	low	20%	0%
Katie Lou Samuelson	bench	12.7	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.8	6.9	8.9	low	30%	0%
Stefanie Dolson	rotation	8.8	2.1	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	4.4	6.1	low	30%	0%
Mackenzie Holmes	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	medium	0%	0%
Taina Mair	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Taylor Thierry	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Angel Reese	star	30.4	16.6	12.8	2.1	1.8	0.8	2.9	0.3	31.6	41.2	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Angel Reese — 30.40 MIN · 16.61 PTS · 41.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.59	14.40	16.90	18.67	16.19	16.61
REB	12.00	14.20	12.60	11.00	12.55	12.83
AST	2.41	2.20	2.20	1.33	2.16	2.12
FG3M	0.19	0.20	0.40	0.67	0.30	0.32
FTM	4.59	3.00	4.70	7.33	4.81	4.92
STL	1.69	1.20	1.90	2.00	1.82	1.80
BLK	0.78	1.60	1.00	0.00	0.81	0.79
TOV	3.19	1.80	2.60	3.33	2.86	2.88
MIN	30.61	29.97	30.69	32.97	30.83	30.40

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.008
Minute scale: 0.986
Def adj (PTS): 1.008
Opp DefRtg: 108.80 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Rhyne Howard — 33.28 MIN · 18.33 PTS · 37.30 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.78	22.40	16.20	18.33	17.82	18.33
REB	3.88	3.80	4.10	2.00	3.84	3.93
AST	3.63	4.40	4.60	3.33	4.11	4.04
FG3M	3.31	4.60	3.30

Dominique Malonga — 25.07 MIN · 18.22 PTS · 36.24 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.42	22.20	20.00	15.67	18.87	18.22
REB	8.73	9.60	10.70	11.00	9.71	9.29
AST	1.58	1.60	1.90	2.00	1.74	1.60
FG3M	0.77	1.40

Jordin Canada — 33.13 MIN · 12.51 PTS · 32.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.45	12.40	11.90	10.67	11.65	12.51
REB	3.70	3.60	3.40	5.67	3.81	4.08
AST	7.48	6.20	7.90	9.00	7.65	7.84
FG3M	0.82	1.40	0.90

Allisha Gray — 31.27 MIN · 20.09 PTS · 31.14 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.24	19.40	20.50	17.67	19.92	20.09
REB	3.12	3.20	2.90	3.00	3.08	3.09
AST	2.36	3.00	2.60	3.00	2.63	2.54
FG3M	1.70	2.00	2.00

Flau'jae Johnson — 27.74 MIN · 15.32 PTS · 28.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.74	13.80	16.10	15.67	14.84	15.32
REB	4.91	2.80	4.00	4.33	4.26	4.36
AST	2.88	2.40	3.00	4.00	2.94	2.89
FG3M	1.21	0.80	1.00

Natisha Hiedeman — 30.34 MIN · 15.30 PTS · 28.37 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.60	12.40	14.00	21.00	15.04	15.30
REB	2.69	2.60	2.70	4.00	2.77	2.80
AST	4.77	6.00	5.80	4.67	5.33	5.15
FG3M	1.91	0.60	1.20

Awa Fam — 24.86 MIN · 9.18 PTS · 21.89 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.17	5.60	8.70	11.00	9.35	9.18
REB	5.72	4.80	6.60	5.00	5.71	5.56
AST	1.97	1.40	2.10	2.00	1.95	1.82
FG3M	1.41	1.20	1.50

Jade Melbourne — 24.79 MIN · 10.01 PTS · 20.32 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.21	11.80	10.20	8.00	9.84	10.01
REB	1.97	1.60	1.80	2.33	1.90	1.92
AST	3.94	4.60	4.40	5.00	4.21	4.08
FG3M	0.62	1.40	0.70

Naz Hillmon — 22.62 MIN · 8.39 PTS · 16.44 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.13	8.20	10.00	12.50	9.66	8.39
REB	4.41	4.40	3.50	2.00	3.95	3.42
AST	1.53	2.00	1.70	2.00	1.73	1.43
FG3M	1.13	1.20	1.40

Ezi Magbegor — 16.43 MIN · 5.43 PTS · 15.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.44	7.00	5.44	7.00	5.52	5.43
REB	3.78	3.60	3.78	3.00	3.73	3.65
AST	1.78	2.40	1.78	0.50	1.78	1.67
FG3M	0.44	0.40	0.44

Jordan Horston — 15.74 MIN · 5.23 PTS · 12.76 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.83	6.00	5.20	4.00	5.23	5.23
REB	3.47	2.60	3.20	1.50	3.15	3.12
AST	1.30	0.40	0.90	0.50	1.05	1.00
FG3M	0.33	0.80	0.50

Madina Okot — 9.43 MIN · 6.39 PTS · 12.17 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.50	1.60	5.20	5.50	5.09	6.39
REB	3.47	2.20	3.10	5.50	3.35	3.99
AST	0.19	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.14	0.19
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Isobel Borlase — 13.63 MIN · 5.31 PTS · 10.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.45	1.80	5.00	4.67	4.46	5.31
REB	1.45	1.60	1.60	2.00	1.59	1.79
AST	0.91	0.80	0.80	1.00	0.84	1.18
FG3M	0.45	0.40	0.50

Zia Cooke — 11.02 MIN · 6.47 PTS · 9.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.49	6.60	7.90	4.33	7.46	6.47
REB	1.71	1.20	1.20	1.33	1.42	1.17
AST	0.89	0.60	0.60	1.00	0.77	0.63
FG3M	0.83	0.40	0.90

Katie Lou Samuelson — 12.72 MIN · 4.64 PTS · 8.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.52	4.40	5.40	4.33	4.85	4.64
REB	2.11	2.40	1.80	0.67	1.82	1.68
AST	0.74	0.60	0.30	1.00	0.61	0.56
FG3M	0.85	0.60	0.80

Te-Hina Paopao — 10.90 MIN · 3.37 PTS · 8.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.88	1.00	2.40	1.50	3.13	3.37
REB	0.92	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.63	0.64
AST	1.58	1.00	1.50	2.00	1.56	1.98
FG3M	0.92	0.20	0.60

Sika Kone — 10.94 MIN · 3.38 PTS · 7.14 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.71	0.00	1.50	3.00	1.66	3.38
REB	1.11	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.02	1.97
AST	0.21	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.20	0.67
FG3M	0.14	0.00	0.20

Stefanie Dolson — 8.83 MIN · 2.13 PTS · 6.08 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.60	2.20	2.10	3.00	2.94	2.13
REB	2.40	1.40	2.20	1.33	2.12	1.52
AST	1.14	0.60	1.00	1.33	1.05	0.73
FG3M	0.54	0.60	0.50