Predictions

Mon, Jun 22, 2026

Data current — through Aug 16

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Dallas WingsAway

90.8

Record: 20-15 | 8th in standingsL10 Record: 3-7📺 KFAA

Seattle StormHome

85.6

Record: 7-30 | 15th in standingsL10 Record: 1-9📺 Amazon Prime Video - Seattle, CW Seattle

Total

176.4

Game lines unavailable: No event for DAL @ SEA

Injury report

7 Out applied to these projections.

DAL

Injury impact on predictions17 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
DAL	Maddy Siegrist	Teammates out: +9.1 min, 10% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	9.1	1.1	5.8	6.3	+8.8%	2.5	2.6	+4.4%	0.9	1.4	+46.3%	12.1	13.9	+15.2%
DAL	Awak Kuier	Teammates out: +8.0 min, 9% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	8.0	1.1	7.7	8.5	+9.7%	4.2	4.4	+5.3%	1.2	1.6	+31.5%	18.8	21.1	+12.3%
DAL	Aziaha James	Teammates out: +5.6 min, 6% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	5.6	1.1	8.5	9.2	+8.7%	3.2	3.3	+4.4%	1.5	2.0	+31.3%	16.7	18.8	+12.8%
DAL	Sug Sutton	Teammates out: +5.6 min, 6% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	5.6	1.1	2.9	3.2	+8.6%	0.9	0.9	+4.6%	2.1	2.8	+34.0%	7.7	9.3	+21.0%
DAL	Jessica Shepard	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	14.3	13.8	-3.3%	11.5	11.2	-2.3%	5.4	4.8	-11.7%	39.1	37.1	-5.1%
DAL	Paige Bueckers	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	21.8	21.1	-3.3%	4.5	4.4	-2.2%	5.8	5.1	-11.7%	38.6	36.3	-6.1%
DAL	Arike Ogunbowale	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.3	16.8	-3.3%	3.8	3.7	-2.4%	3.8	3.3	-12.0%	29.8	28.1	-5.7%
DAL	Azzi Fudd	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	15.6	15.1	-3.3%	1.9	1.9	-2.1%	2.2	1.9	-12.0%	27.8	25.9	-6.9%
SEA	Katie Lou Samuelson	Teammates out: +9.5 min, 12% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	9.5	1.1	5.5	5.9	+7.5%	2.2	2.3	+4.1%	0.8	1.1	+40.3%	11.4	13.1	+15.0%
SEA	Mackenzie Holmes	Teammates out: +8.7 min, 11% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	8.7	1.1	2.4	2.6	+6.6%	2.6	2.7	+3.0%	0.6	0.9	+60.3%	8.0	9.7	+20.6%
SEA	Zia Cooke	Teammates out: +6.7 min, 9% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	6.7	1.1	9.1	9.7	+6.7%	1.6	1.6	+3.2%	0.8	1.0	+25.9%	12.6	13.7	+9.0%
SEA	Taina Mair	Teammates out: +6.7 min, 9% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	6.7	1.1	1.4	1.6	+6.9%	0.4	0.4	+2.4%	0.6	1.3	+125.4%	2.7	3.9	+45.9%
SEA	Stefanie Dolson	Teammates out: +5.0 min, 7% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	5.0	1.1	2.5	2.7	+7.7%	1.8	1.9	+3.9%	0.9	1.0	+14.6%	7.2	7.8	+8.8%
SEA	Dominique Malonga	Teammates out: +4.5 min, 6% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.5	1.1	23.6	25.6	+8.6%	12.0	12.6	+5.0%	2.3	2.3	+1.8%	48.7	51.6	+6.0%
SEA	Natisha Hiedeman	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	18.4	17.1	-7.2%	3.4	3.2	-5.5%	7.0	6.1	-13.4%	35.5	32.0	-9.6%
SEA	Flau'jae Johnson	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.3	16.1	-7.2%	5.4	5.1	-5.5%	4.0	3.5	-13.4%	34.6	31.3	-9.5%
SEA	Awa Fam	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	13.0	12.1	-7.2%	7.5	7.1	-5.4%	2.2	1.9	-13.6%	30.0	27.4	-8.6%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Jessica Shepard	star	32.2	13.8	11.3	4.8	0.6	0.1	1.7	0.0	29.8	37.1	medium	10%	20%
Paige Bueckers	star	34.0	21.1	4.4	5.1	0.9	0.3	2.3	1.8	30.6	36.3	high	10%	10%
Arike Ogunbowale	starter	31.9	16.8	3.7	3.3	1.0	0.1	2.2	1.6	23.8	28.1	medium	10%	20%
Azzi Fudd	starter	37.8	15.1	1.9	1.9	1.9	0.6	1.3	2.5	18.9	25.9	high	10%	60%
Awak Kuier	rotation	20.3	8.5	4.4	1.6	0.6	1.9	1.2	0.7	14.5	21.1	low	10%	10%
Aziaha James	bench	13.8	9.2	3.3	2.0	0.9	0.4	0.8	0.5	14.5	18.8	low	10%	40%
Maddy Siegrist	bench	11.9	6.3	2.6	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.9	10.3	13.9	medium	20%	0%
Sug Sutton	rotation	9.6	3.2	0.9	2.8	0.5	0.1	0.8	0.3	6.9	9.3	medium	10%	50%
Alanna Smith	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Odyssey Sims	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Li Yueru	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Alysha Clark	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Haley Jones	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Costanza Verona	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Dominique Malonga	starter	32.0	25.6	12.6	2.3	1.1	2.1	3.3	1.1	40.6	51.6

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Dominique Malonga — 32.03 MIN · 25.64 PTS · 51.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.18	21.20	20.20	37.00	19.35	25.64
REB	9.00	10.80	10.50	12.00	9.98	12.63
AST	1.71	2.60	2.00	1.00	1.88	2.31
FG3M	0.71	1.20	0.90	2.00	0.85	1.13
FTM	2.96	4.80	3.50	7.00	3.42	4.44
STL	0.93	1.20	0.90	0.00	0.90	1.06
BLK	1.50	2.40	2.00	2.00	1.74	2.10
TOV	2.75	2.20	2.80	4.00	2.75	3.30
MIN	26.30	28.16	27.67	37.50	27.45	32.03

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.167
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Jessica Shepard — 32.22 MIN · 13.83 PTS · 37.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.21	10.20	12.80	11.50	12.79	13.83
REB	11.36	7.40	10.60	8.50	10.42	11.25
AST	5.18	3.80	5.10	4.50	4.84	4.75
FG3M	0.00	0.00

Paige Bueckers — 34.05 MIN · 21.05 PTS · 36.28 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.45	21.60	19.90	18.50	20.31	21.05
REB	4.12	3.80	3.90	7.00	4.26	4.41
AST	5.85	5.40	4.90	6.00	5.44	5.11
FG3M	1.76	1.80	1.80

Natisha Hiedeman — 37.97 MIN · 17.07 PTS · 32.03 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.42	9.60	14.30	16.00	14.39	17.07
REB	2.69	2.20	2.70	3.00	2.73	3.25
AST	4.78	6.00	6.00	6.50	5.54	6.08
FG3M	1.89	0.80	1.30

Flau'jae Johnson — 33.50 MIN · 16.05 PTS · 31.31 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.49	11.60	15.70	13.50	14.01	16.05
REB	4.89	3.00	3.70	7.50	4.47	5.14
AST	2.97	3.20	3.30	5.00	3.29	3.49
FG3M	1.20	1.00	1.10

Arike Ogunbowale — 31.89 MIN · 16.76 PTS · 28.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.80	13.20	17.80	6.50	15.49	16.76
REB	3.14	3.00	3.60	3.50	3.43	3.70
AST	3.09	3.20	4.00	2.00	3.39	3.31
FG3M	1.71	0.80	1.50

Awa Fam — 32.27 MIN · 12.06 PTS · 27.43 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.61	10.00	9.10	13.00	10.14	12.06
REB	5.81	4.00	6.40	6.50	5.97	7.14
AST	1.90	1.40	1.60	2.50	1.74	1.91
FG3M	1.52	2.00	1.50

Azzi Fudd — 37.75 MIN · 15.10 PTS · 25.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	17.50	13.02	15.10
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	2.00	1.64	1.90
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	1.00	1.83	1.91
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Awak Kuier — 20.33 MIN · 8.48 PTS · 21.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.63	7.00	5.90	6.00	6.02	8.48
REB	3.09	3.60	3.00	4.00	3.27	4.37
AST	0.94	1.20	0.90	0.00	0.97	1.63
FG3M	0.59	0.80	0.40

Aziaha James — 13.82 MIN · 9.20 PTS · 18.82 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	18.00	6.89	9.20
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	4.50	2.61	3.30
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	3.50	1.23	1.97
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Maddy Siegrist — 11.86 MIN · 6.31 PTS · 13.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.09	5.20	6.50	8.00	6.35	6.31
REB	2.69	2.80	2.60	4.50	2.80	2.63
AST	0.84	1.40	1.20	1.50	1.05	1.39
FG3M	0.78	0.60	1.00

Zia Cooke — 16.81 MIN · 9.71 PTS · 13.74 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.46	8.20	8.20	11.00	8.08	9.71
REB	1.62	1.00	1.10	2.00	1.42	1.63
AST	0.86	0.80	0.50	1.00	0.72	1.02
FG3M	0.78	0.40	0.80

Katie Lou Samuelson — 16.45 MIN · 5.90 PTS · 13.06 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.38	3.80	5.30	4.50	4.61	5.90
REB	2.00	0.80	1.90	2.00	1.87	2.29
AST	0.72	0.40	0.40	1.50	0.66	1.08
FG3M	0.83	0.60	0.80

Mackenzie Holmes — 9.29 MIN · 2.57 PTS · 9.66 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.74	0.40	0.60	2.00	1.99	2.57
REB	3.00	1.40	0.90	1.00	2.21	2.72
AST	0.57	0.20	0.20	2.00	0.49	0.93
FG3M	0.26	0.00	0.10

Sug Sutton — 9.60 MIN · 3.17 PTS · 9.33 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.55	1.40	1.50	0.00	2.69	3.17
REB	0.85	1.00	0.70	2.00	0.81	0.91
AST	2.20	1.40	1.70	2.00	1.94	2.80
FG3M	0.30	0.20	0.10

Stefanie Dolson — 11.77 MIN · 2.67 PTS · 7.79 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.41	1.20	1.90	1.00	2.64	2.67
REB	2.30	1.60	1.70	1.50	1.95	1.88
AST	1.14	0.80	1.00	0.00	0.96	1.02
FG3M	0.51	0.40	0.50

Taina Mair — 4.89 MIN · 1.55 PTS · 3.88 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.17	1.40	1.17	2.00	1.21	1.55
REB	0.33	0.40	0.33	2.00	0.36	0.43
AST	0.50	0.40	0.50	1.00	0.50	1.33
FG3M	0.17	0.20	0.17

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.070
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.025
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.222
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.180
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.070
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.225
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 30
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.146
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.228
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.32

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.16

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.173
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 0.873
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 37
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.077
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 29
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.138
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.156
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 20
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.039
Def adj (PTS): 1.003
Opp DefRtg: 108.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 37
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 0.898
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 6
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.001
Minute scale: 1.150
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.52

L50.15

L100.21

h2h0.02

def0.10