Predictions

Wed, Jul 15, 2026

3 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Los Angeles SparksAway

87.2

12-2111thL10 2-8📺 Spectrum SportsNet

Minnesota LynxHome

95.8

28-71stL10 9-1📺 Victory+ (MIN), KARE 11

Total

183.1

Game lines unavailable: No event for LAS @ MIN

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

LAS

Injury impact on predictions19 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
LAS	Emma Cannon	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.5	1.0	5.7	6.0	+5.5%	1.3	1.3	+0.8%	0.6	0.7	+18.3%	8.6	9.2	+6.4%
LAS	Cameron Brink	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.2	1.0	8.6	9.1	+5.1%	5.2	5.3	+1.9%	1.5	1.5	+1.4%	21.1	21.9	+3.5%
LAS	Chance Gray	Teammates out: +0.4 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.4	1.0	3.7	3.8	+2.4%	1.3	1.3	+0.8%	1.4	1.4	-1.5%	7.8	7.9	+1.3%
LAS	Jihyun Park	Teammates out: +0.4 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.4	1.0	4.0	4.1	+2.8%	1.1	1.1	+1.0%	0.7	0.7	-1.4%	7.4	7.5	+2.0%
LAS	Kiana Williams	Teammates out: +0.4 min, 0% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.4	1.0	3.4	3.5	+1.7%	0.4	0.5	+2.3%	1.5	1.5	-2.0%	7.0	7.1	+0.7%
LAS	Nneka Ogwumike	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	15.9	15.6	-1.4%	8.7	8.6	-0.6%	3.3	3.1	-4.9%	34.0	33.4	-1.7%
LAS	Dearica Hamby	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	16.6	16.4	-1.4%	7.2	7.2	-0.6%	2.7	2.6	-5.1%	32.7	32.1	-1.7%
LAS	Rae Burrell	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.7	17.4	-1.5%	2.6	2.6	-0.8%	3.1	3.0	-5.1%	28.2	27.6	-2.2%
LAS	Erica Wheeler	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	10.1	9.9	-1.5%	2.3	2.3	-0.4%	5.9	5.6	-5.1%	23.4	22.8	-2.7%
LAS	Ariel Atkins	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	8.9	8.8	-1.5%	3.2	3.1	-0.6%	3.7	3.5	-4.9%	22.6	22.1	-2.3%
MIN	Nia Coffey	Teammates out: +6.8 min, 19% usage boost	6.8	1.2	5.3	5.4	+1.7%	3.6	3.6	+0.3%	1.5	1.7	+16.8%	15.5	16.4	+6.0%
MIN	Natasha Howard	Teammates out: +5.3 min, 15% usage boost	5.3	1.1	14.3	14.7	+2.5%	8.2	8.3	+1.1%	4.0	4.3	+7.2%	35.5	36.6	+3.2%
MIN	Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	Teammates out: +3.0 min, 8% usage boost	3.0	1.1	4.5	4.5	-0.2%	2.2	2.2	-1.8%	0.8	0.9	+14.6%	10.2	10.6	+3.5%
MIN	Kayla McBride	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 5% usage boost	1.8	1.1	22.3	22.3	0.0%	2.8	2.8	+0.4%	1.9	1.8	-4.3%	34.1	33.8	-1.1%
MIN	Olivia Miles	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 4% usage boost	1.6	1.0	22.3	22.1	-0.9%	4.9	4.9	-0.2%	7.0	6.7	-4.9%	42.0	41.0	-2.5%
MIN	Courtney Williams	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 4% usage boost	1.6	1.0	14.4	14.3	-0.9%	4.8	4.8	0.0%	4.8	4.6	-4.8%	30.1	29.4	-2.2%
MIN	Maya Caldwell	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 2% usage boost	0.9	1.0	3.9	3.8	-1.6%	2.5	2.5	-1.6%	1.1	1.0	-3.7%	10.4	10.1	-2.8%
MIN	Antonia Delaere	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 2% usage boost	0.9	1.0	3.3	3.3	-0.6%	0.8	0.8	-1.2%	1.0	1.0	-2.9%	7.0	6.8	-1.7%
MIN	Eliska Joklova	Teammates out: +0.9 min, 2% usage boost	0.9	1.0	2.2	2.2	0.0%	1.4	1.3	-1.5%	1.2	1.2	+4.3%	6.1	6.2	+0.8%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Nneka Ogwumike	star	28.8	15.6	8.6	3.1	1.1	0.3	2.2	1.3	27.4	33.4	high	20%	20%
Dearica Hamby	starter	28.6	16.4	7.2	2.6	1.5	0.4	2.1	0.3	26.1	32.1	high	20%	20%
Rae Burrell	starter	31.6	17.4	2.6	3.0	1.0	0.4	2.7	2.1	23.0	27.6	medium	10%	30%
Erica Wheeler	starter	26.6	9.9	2.3	5.6	0.8	0.0	1.8	1.4	17.8	22.8	medium	20%	10%
Ariel Atkins	starter	29.1	8.8	3.1	3.5	1.7	0.4	1.6	1.6	15.4	22.1	medium	20%	10%
Cameron Brink	rotation	17.0	9.1	5.3	1.5	0.5	1.8	2.0	0.9	15.8	21.9	high	30%	10%
Emma Cannon	deep	8.6	6.0	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.1	8.0	9.2	low	10%	30%
Chance Gray	bench	11.7	3.8	1.3	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.8	0.9	6.5	7.9	low	0%	20%
Jihyun Park	bench	11.2	4.1	1.1	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.4	0.5	5.9	7.5	low	10%	30%
Kiana Williams	bench	11.0	3.5	0.5	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.9	0.7	5.4	7.1	low	10%	40%
Tonie Morgan	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	low	0%	0%
Monique Akoa Makani	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	low	0%	0%
Kate Martin	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Alissa Pili	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Olivia Miles	star	31.8	22.1	4.9	6.7	1.1	0.5	3.2	2.1	33.7	41.0	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Olivia Miles — 31.82 MIN · 22.07 PTS · 40.99 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.79	22.00	20.90	24.00	20.83	22.07
REB	4.67	4.40	4.60	5.33	4.67	4.92
AST	6.09	7.60	7.00	4.67	6.60	6.67
FG3M	1.61	3.00	2.20	2.00	1.94	2.07
FTM	4.18	3.00	3.10	4.00	3.63	3.81
STL	1.24	0.80	1.00	1.67	1.17	1.15
BLK	0.67	0.40	0.60	0.00	0.55	0.51
TOV	3.09	3.80	2.80	3.33	3.05	3.17
MIN	31.01	33.74	32.37	28.67	31.63	31.82

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.017
Minute scale: 1.006
Def adj (PTS): 1.043
Opp DefRtg: 112.60 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Natasha Howard — 27.88 MIN · 14.69 PTS · 36.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.17	12.80	11.90	11.00	13.18	14.69
REB	7.74	6.80	7.20	8.33	7.61	8.26
AST	3.31	4.20	3.80	3.67	3.70	4.29
FG3M	0.09	0.20	0.10

Kayla McBride — 33.47 MIN · 22.26 PTS · 33.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.37	20.40	21.00	17.67	19.97	22.26
REB	3.20	1.80	1.80	1.67	2.53	2.80
AST	2.11	1.00	1.40	0.67	1.69	1.79
FG3M	2.94	4.40	4.20

Nneka Ogwumike — 28.76 MIN · 15.64 PTS · 33.44 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.91	14.00	16.10	16.33	16.09	15.64
REB	8.84	8.20	9.00	9.00	8.87	8.60
AST	3.09	3.60	3.70	2.00	3.36	3.13
FG3M	1.44	0.80	1.30

Dearica Hamby — 28.65 MIN · 16.41 PTS · 32.15 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.27	17.00	17.20	12.67	15.92	16.41
REB	7.33	6.80	6.70	8.67	6.97	7.16
AST	2.48	2.40	3.00	1.67	2.62	2.58
FG3M	0.27	0.40	0.20

Courtney Williams — 31.09 MIN · 14.26 PTS · 29.44 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.66	13.00	12.20	14.67	13.26	14.26
REB	5.17	4.60	4.10	3.67	4.49	4.81
AST	4.26	4.60	4.80	3.00	4.49	4.60
FG3M	1.20	1.00	0.90

Rae Burrell — 31.64 MIN · 17.42 PTS · 27.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.94	17.20	16.00	20.00	16.01	17.42
REB	2.36	2.60	2.40	2.00	2.39	2.59
AST	2.45	3.40	3.40	2.33	2.86	2.97
FG3M	1.61	2.20	2.10

Erica Wheeler — 26.62 MIN · 9.92 PTS · 22.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.33	10.80	11.10	9.33	10.08	9.92
REB	2.03	3.00	2.50	2.33	2.33	2.29
AST	5.42	5.80	6.40	6.33	5.98	5.63
FG3M	1.24	1.60	1.50

Ariel Atkins — 29.08 MIN · 8.81 PTS · 22.12 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.03	6.40	9.30	6.33	8.47	8.81
REB	2.97	3.00	3.30	1.67	3.03	3.14
AST	2.94	3.40	3.70	5.00	3.51	3.49
FG3M	1.32	1.40	1.80

Cameron Brink — 17.02 MIN · 9.07 PTS · 21.89 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.08	9.20	8.80	11.00	9.01	9.07
REB	4.92	6.60	6.00	4.50	5.48	5.28
AST	1.28	1.80	1.70	2.50	1.55	1.50
FG3M	0.84	0.60	0.90

Nia Coffey — 18.02 MIN · 5.36 PTS · 16.45 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.60	2.60	3.50	6.00	5.41	5.36
REB	4.63	2.60	2.30	4.33	3.78	3.65
AST	1.91	0.40	1.00	1.33	1.54	1.74
FG3M	1.23	0.20	0.50

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu — 11.02 MIN · 4.52 PTS · 10.61 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	4.00	3.70	6.50	4.05	4.52
REB	2.19	2.00	1.70	2.50	1.99	2.16
AST	0.70	0.40	0.80	1.00	0.74	0.94
FG3M	0.07	0.20	0.10

Maya Caldwell — 13.04 MIN · 3.80 PTS · 10.12 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.14	2.60	3.90	3.33	3.80	3.80
REB	2.23	2.40	2.70	3.00	2.50	2.47
AST	1.09	1.00	1.00	1.33	1.06	1.03
FG3M	0.71	0.40	0.60

Emma Cannon — 8.55 MIN · 5.97 PTS · 9.17 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	3.20	4.50	5.00	4.02	5.97
REB	0.92	1.00	1.10	1.00	0.95	1.33
AST	0.42	0.00	0.50	1.00	0.43	0.71
FG3M	0.75	0.40	0.80

Chance Gray — 11.66 MIN · 3.82 PTS · 7.94 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.87	2.40	3.60	3.33	3.27	3.82
REB	1.20	1.60	1.00	1.33	1.16	1.32
AST	0.97	1.60	1.50	1.33	1.21	1.35
FG3M	0.63	0.60	1.00

Jihyun Park — 11.18 MIN · 4.09 PTS · 7.53 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.54	3.00	3.50	4.67	3.14	4.09
REB	1.04	0.40	0.60	0.67	0.84	1.06
AST	0.54	0.40	0.70	0.33	0.59	0.73
FG3M	0.32	0.80	0.60

Kiana Williams — 11.00 MIN · 3.50 PTS · 7.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.81	2.60	2.80	2.00	3.21	3.50
REB	0.43	0.60	0.40	0.00	0.42	0.45
AST	1.19	1.00	1.90	1.00	1.42	1.47
FG3M	0.76	0.60	0.50

Antonia Delaere — 11.19 MIN · 3.30 PTS · 6.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	0.40	2.60	3.67	2.84	3.30
REB	0.74	0.40	0.90	0.00	0.71	0.81
AST	1.11	0.20	0.60	0.67	0.89	1.00
FG3M	0.71	0.00	0.60

Eliska Joklova — 6.59 MIN · 2.20 PTS · 6.17 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.00	2.20	1.90	0.00	1.69	2.20
REB	1.17	1.60	1.00	0.33	1.05	1.33
AST	1.06	0.80	0.50	1.33	0.90	1.21
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

LAS

MIN

Best value plays

LAS

MIN

Per-player detail