Predictions

Fri, Jul 17, 2026

2 days behind — through Aug 13

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Connecticut SunAway

80.5

8-2414thL10 3-7

Phoenix MercuryHome

84.0

13-2210thL10 5-5

Total

164.6

📺 ION

Game lines unavailable: No event for CON @ PHX

Injury report

4 Out applied to these projections.

CON

PHX

Quionche CarterOut(no roster match)
Shay CiezkiOut
Kyara LinskensAvailableRight Knee
Natasha MackOutLeft Foot
Sami WhitcombAvailable

Injury impact on predictions13 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
CON	Gianna Kneepkens	Teammates out: +6.3 min, 0% usage boost	6.3	1.0	3.4	3.6	+4.4%	1.0	1.1	+1.0%	0.3	0.6	+66.7%	5.7	6.4	+12.7%
CON	Saniya Rivers	Teammates out: +5.0 min, 0% usage boost	5.0	1.0	4.1	4.3	+5.6%	1.2	1.2	+1.7%	2.0	2.3	+16.6%	10.5	11.6	+10.5%
CON	Nell Angloma	Teammates out: +1.9 min, 0% usage boost	1.9	1.0	3.5	3.7	+4.5%	1.7	1.7	+0.6%	0.7	0.8	+12.7%	8.0	8.5	+6.1%
CON	Raegan Beers	Teammates out: +1.9 min, 0% usage boost	1.9	1.0	2.5	2.6	+4.8%	2.4	2.4	+0.4%	0.6	0.7	+11.9%	7.0	7.4	+4.8%
CON	Aaliyah Edwards	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 0% usage boost	1.5	1.0	9.4	9.9	+5.2%	4.0	4.1	+1.5%	0.8	0.8	+2.5%	16.6	17.2	+3.9%
CON	Olivia Nelson-Ododa	Teammates out: +0.5 min, 0% usage boost	0.5	1.0	10.8	10.8	0.0%	7.2	7.2	+1.1%	1.9	1.8	-2.7%	24.9	24.8	-0.3%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Teammates out: +7.8 min, 5% usage boost	7.8	1.1	13.4	14.0	+4.2%	8.0	8.2	+1.7%	2.0	2.3	+16.8%	31.9	33.7	+5.7%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Teammates out: +7.8 min, 5% usage boost	7.8	1.1	6.9	7.2	+4.4%	1.6	1.7	+1.8%	1.6	2.0	+22.6%	14.0	15.3	+9.4%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Teammates out: +3.6 min, 3% usage boost	3.6	1.0	9.2	9.5	+3.3%	3.6	3.6	+0.8%	1.6	1.7	+11.0%	17.8	18.5	+4.2%
PHX	Marta Suarez	Teammates out: +2.1 min, 1% usage boost	2.1	1.0	4.1	4.2	+2.4%	1.3	1.3	0.0%	0.6	0.6	+12.5%	7.0	7.2	+3.6%
PHX	Lexi Held	Teammates out: +2.0 min, 1% usage boost	2.0	1.0	5.0	5.1	+3.4%	1.2	1.2	+0.8%	1.5	1.6	+3.3%	9.4	9.6	+2.6%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 1% usage boost	1.7	1.0	4.8	5.0	+2.3%	1.7	1.7	0.0%	1.8	1.8	+1.1%	11.2	11.3	+0.7%
PHX	Kyara Linskens	Teammates out: +0.8 min, 1% usage boost	0.8	1.0	3.0	3.0	+2.4%	2.8	2.8	0.0%	0.8	0.8	-2.4%	10.5	10.3	-1.4%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Brittney Griner	starter	23.5	12.6	6.0	2.3	0.3	1.6	1.7	0.1	20.9	26.5	medium	20%	10%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa	rotation	23.5	10.8	7.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	1.9	0.0	19.9	24.8	medium	30%	20%
Leila Lacan	starter	27.0	10.9	2.2	4.0	1.4	0.5	2.7	1.0	17.1	22.6	medium	10%	0%
Diamond Miller	rotation	23.0	10.1	2.7	1.3	0.8	0.3	1.7	1.4	14.0	17.3	medium	10%	10%
Aaliyah Edwards	rotation	17.1	9.9	4.1	0.8	0.5	0.3	1.3	0.1	14.8	17.2	low	10%	20%
Charlisse Leger-Walker	rotation	27.0	6.3	2.2	4.3	0.8	0.1	2.5	0.9	12.8	16.5	medium	20%	30%
Kennedy Burke	rotation	19.4	7.9	2.8	1.0	0.8	0.8	1.2	1.4	11.7	16.1	medium	20%	20%
Saniya Rivers	rotation	13.0	4.3	1.2	2.3	0.8	0.4	0.7	0.2	7.9	11.6	medium	20%	0%
Nell Angloma	bench	10.1	3.7	1.7	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.7	0.2	6.2	8.5	low	10%	30%
Raegan Beers	bench	8.4	2.6	2.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.6	0.1	5.7	7.4	low	10%	0%
Gianna Kneepkens	bench	7.2	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.5	5.2	6.4	low	20%	30%
Hailey Van Lith	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Rayah Marshall	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Ashlon Jackson	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Alyssa Thomas	star	35.3	14.9	8.2	7.8	1.2	0.5	3.6	0.0	30.9	38.5	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Alyssa Thomas — 35.25 MIN · 14.94 PTS · 38.45 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	11.33	14.80	14.94
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	7.33	7.96	8.16
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	7.33	8.15	7.77
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
FTM	3.61	4.40	4.50	3.33	4.07	4.08
STL	1.39	1.20	1.20	1.67	1.33	1.19
BLK	0.48	0.60	0.70	0.67	0.60	0.53
TOV	3.61	4.00	3.50	2.00	3.49	3.58
MIN	33.99	34.89	35.38	35.05	34.70	35.25

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.016
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

DeWanna Bonner — 31.43 MIN · 14.00 PTS · 33.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	11.67	11.75	14.00
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	9.00	7.10	8.16
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.00	1.74	2.30
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Kahleah Copper — 34.88 MIN · 20.77 PTS · 29.11 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	18.33	20.08	20.77
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	3.00	3.04	3.18
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.35	2.29
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Brittney Griner — 23.53 MIN · 12.63 PTS · 26.53 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.22	12.60	14.50	12.00	13.45	12.63
REB	5.83	6.00	6.90	6.00	6.38	5.99
AST	2.50	2.80	2.50	2.67	2.49	2.26
FG3M	0.06	0.20	0.10

Olivia Nelson-Ododa — 23.53 MIN · 10.82 PTS · 24.80 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.50	10.00	10.70	8.33	9.72	10.82
REB	5.96	7.20	6.90	7.33	6.52	7.25
AST	1.79	0.80	1.70	2.00	1.71	1.83
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Leila Lacan — 27.04 MIN · 10.91 PTS · 22.56 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.87	8.60	10.80	14.00	11.28	10.91
REB	2.00	2.80	2.50	2.67	2.30	2.22
AST	4.39	4.40	4.20	4.33	4.28	4.00
FG3M	1.09	1.00	0.90

Valeriane Ayayi — 23.81 MIN · 9.47 PTS · 18.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	6.00	6.05	9.47
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	1.00	2.38	3.60
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	0.67	1.03	1.72
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Diamond Miller — 23.02 MIN · 10.05 PTS · 17.29 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.22	11.60	11.20	8.67	10.12	10.05
REB	2.47	2.60	2.70	4.00	2.76	2.74
AST	1.38	1.80	1.40	0.33	1.31	1.25
FG3M	1.09	2.00	1.90

Aaliyah Edwards — 17.06 MIN · 9.86 PTS · 17.24 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.86	12.40	9.70	8.67	9.90	9.86
REB	4.00	5.40	4.30	5.00	4.32	4.10
AST	0.86	1.00	1.00	0.33	0.85	0.82
FG3M	0.18	0.00	0.10

Charlisse Leger-Walker — 27.01 MIN · 6.28 PTS · 16.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.47	5.20	5.00	5.00	5.58	6.28
REB	2.00	1.00	1.90	2.67	1.93	2.17
AST	3.34	3.60	4.30	5.67	3.98	4.32
FG3M	0.75	1.20	0.70

Kennedy Burke — 19.39 MIN · 7.90 PTS · 16.14 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.32	10.80	8.40	11.33	9.01	7.90
REB	3.26	3.20	3.30	2.33	3.18	2.79
AST	1.45	0.80	0.90	0.67	1.16	0.98
FG3M	1.23	1.80	1.60

Noemie Brochant — 22.63 MIN · 7.16 PTS · 15.30 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	5.33	6.76	7.16
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	1.00	1.64	1.67
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.33	1.62	2.01
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Saniya Rivers — 13.00 MIN · 4.31 PTS · 11.57 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.61	4.80	5.40	5.00	5.85	4.31
REB	2.14	1.60	1.50	0.50	1.76	1.23
AST	3.11	2.60	2.60	3.00	2.88	2.32
FG3M	0.32	0.20	0.10

Sami Whitcomb — 15.60 MIN · 4.95 PTS · 11.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	4.50	4.49	4.95
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	1.00	1.63	1.73
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	0.50	1.64	1.77
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Kyara Linskens — 11.30 MIN · 3.04 PTS · 10.31 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	1.40	2.40	0.00	2.61	3.04
REB	2.44	2.60	2.50	0.00	2.46	2.77
AST	0.67	1.40	0.70	1.00	0.73	0.80
FG3M	0.39	0.20	0.30

Lexi Held — 15.94 MIN · 5.14 PTS · 9.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	5.50	3.90	5.14
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	0.50	0.94	1.19
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	2.00	1.20	1.57
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Nell Angloma — 10.09 MIN · 3.71 PTS · 8.47 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.75	2.60	3.30	2.67	3.39	3.71
REB	1.54	1.80	1.60	1.67	1.66	1.72
AST	0.61	0.60	1.00	0.00	0.69	0.80
FG3M	0.11	0.20	0.20

Raegan Beers — 8.42 MIN · 2.62 PTS · 7.36 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.38	3.00	2.80	2.00	2.97	2.62
REB	2.96	4.20	2.70	1.50	2.88	2.40
AST	0.77	1.00	0.70	0.00	0.70	0.66
FG3M	0.08	0.20	0.10

Marta Suarez — 9.92 MIN · 4.19 PTS · 7.22 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.38	2.40	3.80	5.00	3.45	4.19
REB	1.15	0.60	1.10	2.00	1.12	1.31
AST	0.46	1.00	0.50	0.00	0.48	0.63
FG3M	0.31	0.00	0.20

Gianna Kneepkens — 7.20 MIN · 3.56 PTS · 6.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.33	4.60	3.50	1.00	3.43	3.56
REB	1.13	1.20	0.90	1.00	1.06	1.05
AST	0.46	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.34	0.55
FG3M	0.38	0.80	0.60

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.100
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.041
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 18
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.925
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.072
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 23
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.953
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 29
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.459
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.979
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 22
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.911
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.110
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.864
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.977
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.671
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 12
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.036
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.51

L50.15

L100.20

h2h0.03

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 18
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.095
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.226
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 28
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.008
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.30

L50.25

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 26
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.811
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 13
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 1.141
Def adj (PTS): 1.007
Opp DefRtg: 108.70 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.52

L50.15

L100.21

h2h0.02

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 24
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.956
Def adj (PTS): 1.009
Opp DefRtg: 108.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10