Predictions

Sat, Jul 18, 2026

Data current — through Aug 15

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Matchup

Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

New York LibertyAway

94.4

22-146thL10 8-2

Indiana FeverHome

94.3

22-124thL10 8-2

Total

188.7

📺 CBS, Paramount+

Game lines unavailable: No event for NYL @ IND

Injury report

2 Out applied to these projections.

NYL

Injury impact on predictions18 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
IND	Caitlin Clark	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	18.3	18.3	0.0%	2.9	2.9	0.0%	7.0	7.0	0.0%	34.4	34.4	0.0%
IND	Aliyah Boston	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	15.5	15.5	0.0%	7.7	7.7	0.0%	3.0	3.0	0.0%	34.0	34.0	0.0%
IND	Kelsey Mitchell	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	24.9	24.9	0.0%	1.8	1.8	0.0%	2.2	2.2	0.0%	33.4	33.4	0.0%
IND	Monique Billings	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	8.7	8.7	0.0%	4.8	4.8	0.0%	1.1	1.1	0.0%	18.8	18.8	0.0%
IND	Makayla Timpson	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	6.1	6.1	0.0%	6.0	6.0	0.0%	0.6	0.6	0.0%	17.4	17.4	0.0%
IND	Sophie Cunningham	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.2	7.2	0.0%	1.9	1.9	0.0%	1.0	1.0	0.0%	13.1	13.1	0.0%
IND	Tyasha Harris	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	5.4	5.4	0.0%	1.1	1.1	0.0%	2.5	2.5	0.0%	11.4	11.4	0.0%
IND	Lexie Hull	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	4.1	4.1	0.0%	2.4	2.4	0.0%	0.7	0.7	0.0%	9.6	9.6	0.0%
IND	Raven Johnson	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	3.3	3.3	0.0%	1.7	1.7	0.0%	1.2	1.2	0.0%	7.6	7.6	0.0%
IND	Myisha Hines-Allen	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	2.2	2.2	0.0%	1.9	1.9	0.0%	0.8	0.8	0.0%	6.8	6.8	0.0%
NYL	Breanna Stewart	Teammates out: +5.8 min, 18% usage boost	5.8	1.2	23.8	24.4	+2.7%	8.6	8.8	+2.3%	4.2	4.5	+7.0%	46.1	47.8	+3.6%
NYL	Jonquel Jones	Teammates out: +2.1 min, 7% usage boost	2.1	1.1	17.9	18.1	+0.9%	12.1	12.1	+0.5%	3.9	3.8	-2.6%	44.5	44.5	-0.1%
NYL	Pauline Astier	Teammates out: +2.1 min, 7% usage boost	2.1	1.1	10.4	10.4	+0.1%	2.4	2.4	-0.4%	4.1	4.1	-1.0%	21.3	21.2	-0.3%
NYL	Marine Johannes	Teammates out: +1.9 min, 6% usage boost	1.9	1.1	10.2	10.2	-0.8%	1.8	1.8	-1.1%	2.0	2.0	-1.0%	18.2	18.1	-1.1%
NYL	Rebekah Gardner	Teammates out: +1.9 min, 6% usage boost	1.9	1.1	6.9	6.8	-0.9%	3.8	3.8	-1.3%	1.7	1.7	+2.4%	15.7	15.7	-0.1%
NYL	Sabrina Ionescu	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 5% usage boost	1.6	1.1	22.1	21.6	-2.2%	4.9	4.9	-1.0%	5.9	5.6	-4.4%	39.0	37.9	-2.8%
NYL	Han Xu	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 4% usage boost	1.3	1.0	8.2	8.1	-1.7%	3.6	3.6	-2.2%	0.8	0.8	-1.3%	16.8	16.5	-1.9%
NYL	Raquel Carrera	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 4% usage boost	1.3	1.0	2.7	2.6	-1.9%	1.7	1.7	-2.3%	0.8	0.8	+11.8%	6.3	6.4	+1.1%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Breanna Stewart	star	36.6	24.4	8.8	4.5	1.6	1.5	2.2	0.9	37.7	47.8	high	0%	40%
Jonquel Jones	starter	33.9	18.1	12.1	3.8	0.8	1.3	2.7	2.2	34.0	44.5	high	10%	30%
Sabrina Ionescu	starter	36.6	21.6	4.9	5.6	1.0	0.2	3.8	2.6	32.1	37.9	medium	0%	10%
Pauline Astier	starter	24.9	10.4	2.4	4.1	1.1	0.1	1.6	0.4	16.9	21.2	medium	10%	20%
Marine Johannes	rotation	20.0	10.2	1.8	2.0	0.9	0.1	1.6	2.6	14.0	18.1	low	10%	20%
Han Xu	bench	17.3	8.1	3.6	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.5	1.1	12.4	16.5	low	20%	20%
Rebekah Gardner	bench	17.7	6.8	3.8	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.6	0.3	12.3	15.7	low	10%	20%
Raquel Carrera	deep	10.1	2.6	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	5.2	6.4	low	0%	70%
Leonie Fiebich	starter	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Satou Sabally	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Marine Fauthoux	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Rebecca Allen	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Anneli Maley	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	medium	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Caitlin Clark	starter	24.9	18.3	2.9	7.0	0.8	0.4	3.3	2.5	28.1	34.4	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Breanna Stewart — 36.56 MIN · 24.43 PTS · 47.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.69	16.60	19.60	25.00	19.91	24.43
REB	8.17	5.80	7.20	7.67	7.31	8.82
AST	3.20	3.60	3.80	3.33	3.52	4.46
FG3M	0.80	0.60	0.80	1.00	0.77	0.94
FTM	5.77	3.20	4.80	8.00	5.47	6.56
STL	1.26	1.00	1.20	2.00	1.28	1.60
BLK	1.37	0.60	1.40	1.00	1.25	1.53
TOV	2.17	1.60	1.60	2.00	1.87	2.19
MIN	33.09	29.95	32.59	31.50	32.39	36.56

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.013
Minute scale: 1.129
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.90 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Jonquel Jones — 33.89 MIN · 18.07 PTS · 44.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.71	15.40	14.40	11.67	14.52	18.07
REB	9.43	12.40	10.00	9.33	9.92	12.14
AST	2.86	3.40	3.70	2.67	3.21	3.82
FG3M	1.83	2.00	1.70

Sabrina Ionescu — 36.57 MIN · 21.59 PTS · 37.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.00	15.40	19.60	15.50	17.46	21.59
REB	3.96	3.40	4.30	2.50	3.93	4.86
AST	4.52	4.40	4.90	4.50	4.69	5.62
FG3M	2.09	1.60	2.50

Caitlin Clark — 24.94 MIN · 18.30 PTS · 34.36 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	21.90	23.20	26.30	16.33	23.48	18.30
REB	3.90	3.00	3.50	4.33	3.71	2.86
AST	8.27	9.80	9.40	8.67	9.04	6.99
FG3M	2.70	3.00	3.40

Aliyah Boston — 25.51 MIN · 15.53 PTS · 33.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.94	16.80	16.10	15.67	16.40	15.53
REB	8.48	9.60	7.90	7.67	8.18	7.65
AST	2.97	3.40	3.40	3.00	3.18	2.99
FG3M	1.23	1.40	1.10

Kelsey Mitchell — 31.11 MIN · 24.93 PTS · 33.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	24.29	28.60	28.30	27.33	26.61	24.93
REB	1.71	2.20	1.80	3.33	1.98	1.83
AST	2.71	2.80	2.10	2.00	2.39	2.22
FG3M	2.88	3.20	3.40

Pauline Astier — 24.95 MIN · 10.40 PTS · 21.19 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.39	7.00	8.50	8.00	8.59	10.40
REB	2.39	2.00	1.40	2.67	2.00	2.38
AST	3.50	3.60	3.30	3.67	3.43	4.08
FG3M	0.42	0.00	0.20

Monique Billings — 20.49 MIN · 8.68 PTS · 18.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.45	7.40	9.80	11.00	8.79	8.68
REB	5.24	3.40	5.10	5.00	4.96	4.83
AST	1.12	1.00	1.30	1.33	1.17	1.15
FG3M	0.15	0.00	0.00

Marine Johannes — 20.04 MIN · 10.17 PTS · 18.05 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.30	12.40	9.20	9.33	9.70	10.17
REB	2.18	1.40	1.20	2.00	1.76	1.82
AST	2.48	2.20	1.60	0.67	1.93	2.00
FG3M	2.30	3.20	2.40

Makayla Timpson — 25.56 MIN · 6.07 PTS · 17.36 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.39	6.00	6.30	1.67	4.93	6.07
REB	4.27	6.00	5.90	4.00	4.93	5.99
AST	0.52	0.80	0.60	0.00	0.53	0.64
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Han Xu — 17.27 MIN · 8.07 PTS · 16.50 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.03	7.60	8.20	4.00	6.82	8.07
REB	2.47	3.20	3.50	4.33	3.07	3.57
AST	0.72	0.80	0.60	0.67	0.66	0.78
FG3M	0.83	0.60	1.20

Rebekah Gardner — 17.73 MIN · 6.82 PTS · 15.68 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.21	5.60	6.10	5.00	5.65	6.82
REB	2.56	3.80	3.60	5.00	3.17	3.75
AST	1.26	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.38	1.71
FG3M	0.26	0.20	0.30

Sophie Cunningham — 20.83 MIN · 7.24 PTS · 13.10 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.85	5.00	7.00	8.33	7.80	7.24
REB	2.24	1.60	2.20	2.33	2.12	1.94
AST	1.21	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.07	0.99
FG3M	1.73	1.20	1.50

Tyasha Harris — 15.58 MIN · 5.43 PTS · 11.42 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.48	3.60	4.60	6.00	4.66	5.43
REB	1.10	0.60	0.70	1.00	0.93	1.07
AST	2.10	1.00	2.20	3.50	2.13	2.46
FG3M	0.66	1.00	0.80

Lexie Hull — 15.64 MIN · 4.14 PTS · 9.61 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.32	3.40	3.80	6.00	4.69	4.14
REB	3.12	3.00	2.50	3.00	2.76	2.41
AST	0.74	0.60	0.70	1.33	0.75	0.65
FG3M	0.82	0.60	0.70

Raven Johnson — 10.46 MIN · 3.28 PTS · 7.64 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.39	0.80	1.70	2.67	2.69	3.28
REB	1.90	0.20	0.90	1.00	1.43	1.72
AST	1.32	0.20	0.30	1.33	1.00	1.20
FG3M	0.35	0.00	0.10

Myisha Hines-Allen — 8.50 MIN · 2.21 PTS · 6.82 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.77	1.80	2.10	3.33	3.08	2.21
REB	3.03	2.40	2.60	2.00	2.63	1.86
AST	1.47	0.60	0.70	0.33	1.08	0.77
FG3M	0.23	0.20	0.30

Raquel Carrera — 10.12 MIN · 2.63 PTS · 6.41 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.63	0.80	1.00	2.00	1.41	2.63
REB	1.11	1.20	0.70	0.50	0.93	1.70
AST	0.37	0.80	0.50	0.00	0.40	0.85
FG3M	0.11	0.00	0.10

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

NYL

IND

Best value plays

NYL

IND

Per-player detail