WNBA Predictions

Team	Player	Reasons	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
PHX	Alyssa Thomas	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	14.2	13.4	-5.7%	7.7	7.5	-2.2%	7.9	7.5	-5.7%	37.5	35.9	-4.3%
PHX	DeWanna Bonner	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	11.2	10.6	-5.7%	6.6	6.5	-2.3%	1.7	1.6	-5.8%	26.8	25.8	-3.7%
PHX	Kahleah Copper	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	19.2	18.1	-5.7%	2.9	2.8	-2.1%	2.2	2.1	-5.5%	27.1	25.8	-4.9%
PHX	Natasha Mack	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.8	5.4	-5.7%	4.4	4.3	-2.3%	0.9	0.8	-5.6%	14.4	13.8	-3.6%
PHX	Noemie Brochant	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	6.7	6.3	-5.7%	1.7	1.6	-2.4%	1.6	1.5	-5.6%	13.8	13.2	-4.1%
PHX	Valeriane Ayayi	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	5.3	5.0	-5.6%	2.2	2.2	-2.3%	0.9	0.9	-5.3%	10.6	10.2	-4.0%
PHX	Sami Whitcomb	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	4.4	4.2	-5.7%	1.6	1.6	-2.5%	1.6	1.6	-5.5%	10.3	9.8	-4.4%
PHX	Lexi Held	Usage compression 0.94 (returning star)	1.0	3.6	3.4	-5.6%	0.9	0.9	-2.2%	1.0	0.9	-5.2%	6.7	6.4	-4.5%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Paige Bueckers	star	26.9	16.8	3.3	4.7	0.7	0.3	1.8	1.5	24.8	29.9	high	30%	10%
Jessica Shepard	star	25.3	11.3	8.9	4.3	0.6	0.1	1.3	0.0	24.5	29.5	medium	30%	10%
Arike Ogunbowale	starter	25.5	13.3	2.7	3.1	1.0	0.1	1.8	1.4	19.0	23.2	medium	30%	20%
Azzi Fudd	star	28.3	11.4	1.4	1.8	1.5	0.7	1.0	2.1	14.7	20.7	high	30%	0%
Alanna Smith	rotation	22.3	8.2	5.7	1.2	0.8	0.7	1.4	0.9	15.0	19.8	low	10%	10%
Odyssey Sims	bench	19.4	6.6	1.4	2.7	0.7	0.1	1.2	0.6	10.8	13.7	low	10%	30%
Aziaha James	bench	11.3	6.3	2.5	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.8	0.3	10.0	13.0	low	20%	10%
Awak Kuier	bench	12.5	5.0	2.4	0.6	0.3	0.9	0.7	0.4	8.0	11.3	low	20%	10%
Maddy Siegrist	bench	10.1	4.8	2.2	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.7	7.7	10.0	low	20%	10%
Li Yueru	bench	12.0	3.9	2.9	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.3	7.2	9.0	low	10%	20%
Alysha Clark	bench	10.2	2.3	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.4	4.2	5.5	low	20%	0%
Sug Sutton	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Haley Jones	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	medium	0%	0%
Costanza Verona	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Kelsey Plum	star	32.0	23.0	2.5	5.8	1.0	0.0	3.1	2.3	31.3	36.4	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Kelsey Plum — 32.01 MIN · 22.98 PTS · 36.37 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.25	16.20	19.50	27.00	20.49	22.98
REB	2.19	2.40	2.40	2.00	2.28	2.52
AST	5.63	4.00	5.20	6.00	5.21	5.80
FG3M	2.44	1.80	1.90	1.00	2.09	2.34
FTM	4.56	3.20	4.40	6.00	4.33	4.78
STL	1.00	0.40	0.90	0.00	0.87	0.96
BLK	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TOV	2.94	2.20	2.70	5.00	2.83	3.10
MIN	31.42	24.95	29.14	32.70	29.59	32.01

Factors

Games played: 16
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.082
Def adj (PTS): 0.995
Opp DefRtg: 107.40 vs league 107.90
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Alyssa Thomas — 31.99 MIN · 13.41 PTS · 35.91 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.82	14.40	15.70	6.00	14.83	13.41
REB	7.36	9.00	8.50	9.00	8.10	7.50
AST	8.21	7.80	8.60	10.00	8.34	7.49
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Paige Bueckers — 26.87 MIN · 16.83 PTS · 29.95 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.19	17.00	19.20	31.00	19.99	16.83
REB	4.06	3.20	3.90	6.00	3.95	3.29
AST	5.84	5.00	5.40	5.00	5.58	4.67
FG3M	1.75	1.40	1.70

Jessica Shepard — 25.25 MIN · 11.30 PTS · 29.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.21	10.20	12.80	17.00	13.04	11.30
REB	11.36	7.40	10.60	10.00	10.45	8.94
AST	5.18	3.80	5.10	7.00	4.98	4.28
FG3M	0.00	0.00

DeWanna Bonner — 26.40 MIN · 10.59 PTS · 25.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	10.23	10.40	13.20	9.00	11.64	10.59
REB	6.00	7.40	7.70	7.00	6.92	6.45
AST	1.54	2.00	2.10	1.00	1.79	1.62
FG3M	1.14	1.40	1.30

Kahleah Copper — 30.83 MIN · 18.10 PTS · 25.75 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.56	18.80	20.60	13.00	19.97	18.10
REB	3.50	2.40	2.70	2.00	3.02	2.80
AST	1.94	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.31	2.08
FG3M	1.71	1.80	1.50

Arike Ogunbowale — 25.50 MIN · 13.28 PTS · 23.18 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.65	12.20	17.80	2.00	15.40	13.28
REB	3.06	2.80	3.20	6.00	3.15	2.68
AST	3.15	4.00	4.00	1.00	3.58	3.06
FG3M	1.76	1.00	1.60

Azzi Fudd — 28.34 MIN · 11.45 PTS · 20.72 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	17.00	12.86	11.45
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	3.00	1.65	1.45
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	4.00	1.98	1.75
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Alanna Smith — 22.25 MIN · 8.15 PTS · 19.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.62	11.80	8.20	2.00	6.56	8.15
REB	3.88	7.80	5.40	5.00	4.60	5.65
AST	1.04	1.20	0.80	1.00	0.98	1.21
FG3M	0.62	1.60	1.00

Natasha Mack — 14.96 MIN · 5.43 PTS · 13.85 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.33	6.40	6.30	8.00	7.33	5.43
REB	6.81	4.20	4.20	3.00	5.63	4.27
AST	1.30	0.80	0.90	2.00	1.14	0.84
FG3M	0.07	0.00	0.00

Odyssey Sims — 19.36 MIN · 6.64 PTS · 13.69 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.40	7.60	5.20	0.00	5.61	6.64
REB	1.04	2.20	1.40	0.00	1.22	1.42
AST	2.20	3.00	2.30	0.00	2.31	2.71
FG3M	0.48	0.60	0.40

Noemie Brochant — 22.07 MIN · 6.33 PTS · 13.22 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	10.40	7.30	4.00	6.80	6.33
REB	2.06	1.60	1.30	2.00	1.73	1.64
AST	1.76	2.00	1.50	1.00	1.64	1.52
FG3M	1.03	1.40	1.00

Aziaha James — 11.30 MIN · 6.34 PTS · 12.99 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	7.00	6.11	6.34
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	1.00	2.40	2.46
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	4.00	1.18	1.21
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Awak Kuier — 12.47 MIN · 4.97 PTS · 11.28 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.55	6.60	5.50	4.00	5.68	4.97
REB	3.00	2.80	2.50	3.00	2.83	2.44
AST	0.84	0.40	0.50	1.00	0.71	0.61
FG3M	0.58	0.60	0.30

Valeriane Ayayi — 13.98 MIN · 5.01 PTS · 10.16 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.66	4.40	5.80	0.00	6.04	5.01
REB	2.83	2.00	2.30	0.00	2.54	2.16
AST	1.24	0.60	0.90	0.00	1.08	0.89
FG3M	0.62	0.60	0.50

Maddy Siegrist — 10.13 MIN · 4.77 PTS · 9.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.13	5.00	6.00	0.00	5.89	4.77
REB	2.74	3.00	2.50	2.00	2.70	2.16
AST	0.81	1.40	1.00	0.00	0.90	0.72
FG3M	0.77	0.40	0.90

Sami Whitcomb — 14.31 MIN · 4.15 PTS · 9.84 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.25	4.80	4.90	0.00	4.49	4.15
REB	1.75	1.60	1.40	0.00	1.66	1.56
AST	1.67	2.00	1.60	0.00	1.69	1.55
FG3M	1.08	1.40	1.30

Li Yueru — 12.04 MIN · 3.90 PTS · 8.97 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.44	3.40	4.30	3.00	3.80	3.90
REB	2.80	2.60	3.10	1.00	2.86	2.90
AST	0.48	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.42	0.43
FG3M	0.28	0.20	0.30

Lexi Held — 10.71 MIN · 3.39 PTS · 6.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.67	2.20	2.60	17.00	4.25	3.39
REB	1.18	1.00	0.70	4.00	1.08	0.88
AST	1.33	0.40	1.00	1.00	1.14	0.91
FG3M	0.70	0.20	0.20

Alysha Clark — 10.20 MIN · 2.33 PTS · 5.46 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.05	1.40	2.20	0.00	2.09	2.33
REB	1.19	1.80	1.20	0.00	1.20	1.32
AST	0.48	0.60	0.50	1.00	0.51	0.57
FG3M	0.38	0.20	0.40

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

Best value plays

DAL

PHX

Per-player detail