Predictions

Sat, Jun 20, 2026

Data current — through Aug 16

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Indiana FeverAway

95.3

Record: 23-12 | 4th in standingsL10 Record: 8-2

Atlanta DreamHome

92.7

Record: 21-13 | 5th in standingsL10 Record: 7-3

Total

188.0

📺 ABC

Game lines unavailable: No event for IND @ ATL

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

IND

Caitlin Clark

Injury impact on predictions9 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
ATL	Isobel Borlase	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 5% usage boost	1.5	1.1	7.6	8.1	+5.8%	2.6	2.7	+1.1%	1.6	1.7	+6.2%	14.0	14.8	+5.3%
ATL	Te-Hina Paopao	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 5% usage boost	1.5	1.1	3.0	3.2	+5.6%	0.6	0.6	+1.7%	1.3	1.4	+6.2%	6.4	6.8	+6.1%
ATL	Madina Okot	Teammates out: +1.4 min, 5% usage boost	1.4	1.1	5.8	6.2	+5.8%	4.1	4.2	+1.5%	0.3	0.3	+10.0%	12.4	13.1	+5.5%
IND	Tyasha Harris	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost	1.3	1.0	4.9	5.2	+6.0%	1.2	1.2	+0.8%	2.3	2.4	+3.5%	10.8	11.3	+4.7%
IND	Raven Johnson	Teammates out: +1.3 min, 0% usage boost	1.3	1.0	2.8	3.0	+6.0%	1.5	1.5	+0.7%	1.0	1.1	+6.1%	6.6	6.9	+5.5%
IND	Lexie Hull	Teammates out: +1.1 min, 0% usage boost	1.1	1.0	4.2	4.4	+4.6%	2.6	2.7	+1.9%	0.6	0.6	0.0%	9.7	10.0	+3.2%
IND	Myisha Hines-Allen	Teammates out: +0.4 min, 0% usage boost	0.4	1.0	2.8	2.8	+1.8%	2.4	2.4	+0.8%	0.9	0.9	-2.2%	8.3	8.4	+0.6%
IND	Makayla Timpson	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost	0.3	1.0	6.9	6.9	+0.7%	5.5	5.6	+0.7%	0.5	0.5	-4.2%	17.3	17.4	+0.3%
IND	Monique Billings	Teammates out: +0.3 min, 0% usage boost	0.3	1.0	6.6	6.6	+0.5%	4.2	4.2	+0.5%	0.9	0.9	-3.3%	15.7	15.7	0.0%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Caitlin Clark	star	32.4	24.1	3.7	8.6	0.9	0.5	4.8	3.0	36.4	43.3	high	10%	20%
Aliyah Boston	starter	28.1	17.5	9.2	3.3	1.8	1.4	2.5	1.1	30.0	39.6	high	10%	30%
Kelsey Mitchell	star	32.5	25.5	1.7	2.2	1.1	0.1	1.6	3.0	29.4	34.0	high	20%	10%
Makayla Timpson	bench	22.7	6.9	5.6	0.5	0.7	1.0	1.0	0.0	12.9	17.4	low	20%	0%
Monique Billings	rotation	16.4	6.6	4.2	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.6	0.1	11.7	15.7	low	40%	0%
Sophie Cunningham	rotation	21.4	7.3	2.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.6	1.5	10.8	13.4	medium	20%	40%
Tyasha Harris	bench	14.8	5.2	1.3	2.4	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.9	8.8	11.3	low	30%	0%
Lexie Hull	rotation	16.1	4.4	2.7	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.7	0.7	7.6	10.0	medium	20%	30%
Myisha Hines-Allen	rotation	9.8	2.8	2.4	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.8	0.2	6.1	8.4	medium	30%	40%
Raven Johnson	bench	8.9	3.0	1.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.7	0.3	5.5	6.9	medium	10%	60%
Bree Hall	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Mercedes Russell	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%
Grace VanSlooten	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	low	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Angel Reese	star	31.9	16.6	13.1	2.7	1.5	0.9	3.1	0.2	32.5	41.9	medium

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Caitlin Clark — 32.35 MIN · 24.12 PTS · 43.32 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	22.03	24.60	24.40	23.75	23.54	24.12
REB	3.87	3.40	3.60	3.75	3.64	3.69
AST	8.29	9.60	9.30	7.75	8.77	8.56
FG3M	2.71	3.20	3.10	2.50	2.88	2.97
FTM	5.52	5.00	6.10	4.25	5.52	5.65
STL	0.94	1.00	1.00	0.25	0.88	0.88
BLK	0.55	0.20	0.40	0.25	0.46	0.45
TOV	4.65	4.80	4.90	5.00	4.79	4.80
MIN	30.86	36.74	33.84	34.14	33.25	32.35

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 4 game(s)
Pace factor: 1.018
Minute scale: 0.973
Def adj (PTS): 0.975
Opp DefRtg: 105.10 vs league 107.80
Injury status: Available

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Angel Reese — 31.87 MIN · 16.63 PTS · 41.93 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.58	12.80	16.10	16.25	15.61	16.63
REB	12.06	13.80	12.70	10.75	12.38	13.13
AST	2.52	3.00	2.60	2.75	2.66	2.70
FG3M	0.18	0.20	0.30

Aliyah Boston — 28.14 MIN · 17.48 PTS · 39.62 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.97	17.40	16.40	18.25	16.80	17.48
REB	8.66	10.80	8.60	9.50	8.90	9.16
AST	3.00	2.80	3.70	3.75	3.37	3.33
FG3M	1.19	1.20	0.90

Rhyne Howard — 34.91 MIN · 18.70 PTS · 37.09 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.76	22.00	16.80	16.25	17.71	18.70
REB	3.76	3.60	3.60	3.00	3.46	3.64
AST	3.67	5.00	4.80	3.50	4.20	4.23
FG3M	3.24	4.20	3.10

Allisha Gray — 33.66 MIN · 22.52 PTS · 34.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.62	24.40	21.70	21.00	21.29	22.52
REB	3.24	4.40	3.50	3.25	3.47	3.66
AST	2.44	3.60	2.90	2.75	2.77	2.79
FG3M	1.76	2.80	2.10

Kelsey Mitchell — 32.47 MIN · 25.48 PTS · 33.98 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	24.17	25.20	27.30	21.75	25.22	25.48
REB	1.69	2.20	1.80	1.25	1.71	1.71
AST	2.66	2.40	2.20	1.75	2.29	2.20
FG3M	2.86	2.40	3.30

Jordin Canada — 31.90 MIN · 12.63 PTS · 31.91 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.45	12.40	11.90	14.33	12.00	12.63
REB	3.70	3.60	3.40	4.00	3.58	3.75
AST	7.48	6.20	7.90	8.00	7.53	7.56
FG3M	0.82	1.40	0.90

Naz Hillmon — 28.39 MIN · 10.17 PTS · 19.98 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	9.03	8.00	9.60	13.50	9.52	10.17
REB	4.45	5.40	3.60	5.25	4.26	4.53
AST	1.48	1.60	1.50	1.50	1.52	1.55
FG3M	1.09	1.00	1.30

Makayla Timpson — 22.72 MIN · 6.92 PTS · 17.40 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.85	8.60	7.50	6.50	6.03	6.92
REB	4.35	6.40	5.70	3.75	4.90	5.56
AST	0.50	0.80	0.40	0.00	0.42	0.46
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Monique Billings — 16.36 MIN · 6.64 PTS · 15.65 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	7.32	6.20	8.50	4.00	7.29	6.64
REB	5.21	3.60	5.00	3.25	4.69	4.22
AST	1.12	0.80	1.10	0.50	1.00	0.87
FG3M	0.15	0.00	0.00

Isobel Borlase — 21.60 MIN · 8.07 PTS · 14.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.62	3.80	5.00	6.50	4.97	8.07
REB	1.50	2.00	1.80	2.25	1.74	2.67
AST	0.97	1.20	1.00	1.25	1.06	1.72
FG3M	0.50	0.80	0.70

Sophie Cunningham — 21.39 MIN · 7.32 PTS · 13.40 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.68	5.00	7.10	9.00	7.76	7.32
REB	2.38	2.80	2.70	3.00	2.63	2.46
AST	1.21	0.20	1.10	1.00	1.08	0.97
FG3M	1.68	1.00	1.50

Madina Okot — 10.11 MIN · 6.18 PTS · 13.13 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.58	3.20	4.10	4.50	4.76	6.18
REB	3.58	3.00	3.00	4.00	3.39	4.17
AST	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.50	0.24	0.33
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Tyasha Harris — 14.84 MIN · 5.16 PTS · 11.27 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.43	3.80	4.40	1.00	4.03	5.16
REB	1.13	1.00	0.90	1.33	1.04	1.25
AST	2.10	1.20	2.10	1.33	1.89	2.35
FG3M	0.67	1.20	0.80

Lexie Hull — 16.15 MIN · 4.36 PTS · 9.99 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.17	2.20	3.60	1.50	4.08	4.36
REB	3.09	3.00	2.50	1.75	2.59	2.66
AST	0.71	0.40	0.60	0.25	0.59	0.60
FG3M	0.80	0.40	0.70

Myisha Hines-Allen — 9.85 MIN · 2.82 PTS · 8.39 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.77	1.80	2.10	4.67	3.20	2.82
REB	3.03	2.40	2.60	3.67	2.79	2.41
AST	1.47	0.60	0.70	0.33	1.06	0.89
FG3M	0.23	0.20	0.30

Raven Johnson — 8.89 MIN · 3.01 PTS · 6.94 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.28	0.80	1.10	3.50	2.55	3.01
REB	1.84	0.20	0.30	2.00	1.34	1.48
AST	1.28	0.20	0.10	1.25	0.90	1.05
FG3M	0.34	0.00	0.10

Te-Hina Paopao — 9.76 MIN · 3.20 PTS · 6.77 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.84	1.60	1.80	4.75	3.23	3.20
REB	0.88	0.00	0.20	0.75	0.65	0.61
AST	1.52	0.80	1.30	1.50	1.39	1.37
FG3M	0.92	0.40	0.40