Predictions

Wed, Jun 24, 2026

Data current — through Aug 16

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Minnesota LynxAway

87.1

Record: 29-7 | 1st in standingsL10 Record: 9-1📺 Victory+ (MIN)

Washington MysticsHome

79.1

Record: 20-14 | 7th in standingsL10 Record: 8-2📺 Monumental Sports Network

Total

166.2

Game lines unavailable: No event for MIN @ WAS

Injury report

3 Out applied to these projections.

MIN

Injury impact on predictions19 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
MIN	Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	Teammates out: +5.9 min, 11% usage boost	5.9	1.1	4.3	4.3	+1.9%	2.1	2.1	-0.5%	0.8	1.1	+38.2%	9.9	11.2	+12.8%
MIN	Natasha Howard	Teammates out: +5.2 min, 10% usage boost	5.2	1.1	14.8	15.5	+4.6%	8.5	8.7	+2.0%	3.6	3.8	+5.8%	35.3	36.7	+3.8%
MIN	Nia Coffey	Teammates out: +2.9 min, 5% usage boost	2.9	1.1	5.8	6.0	+3.6%	4.1	4.1	+1.0%	1.8	1.8	+1.1%	17.7	17.9	+1.2%
MIN	Maya Caldwell	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 3% usage boost	1.8	1.0	3.8	3.9	+1.8%	2.3	2.3	-0.4%	0.9	0.9	+1.1%	9.7	9.7	+0.6%
MIN	Antonia Delaere	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 3% usage boost	1.8	1.0	2.8	2.8	+1.8%	0.8	0.8	-1.3%	0.9	0.9	+3.3%	5.9	6.0	+1.5%
MIN	Eliska Joklova	Teammates out: +1.8 min, 3% usage boost	1.8	1.0	2.0	2.0	+2.0%	1.2	1.1	-0.9%	0.9	1.0	+18.2%	5.2	5.5	+7.2%
MIN	Kayla McBride	Teammates out: +1.7 min, 3% usage boost	1.7	1.0	19.8	19.4	-1.9%	2.8	2.7	-1.5%	1.9	1.8	-5.7%	31.7	30.8	-3.1%
MIN	Olivia Miles	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 3% usage boost	1.6	1.0	21.6	21.1	-2.2%	4.6	4.5	-1.5%	6.8	6.4	-5.6%	40.2	38.8	-3.5%
MIN	Courtney Williams	Teammates out: +1.6 min, 3% usage boost	1.6	1.0	13.1	12.8	-2.1%	4.5	4.4	-1.6%	4.2	4.0	-5.5%	27.4	26.5	-3.4%
WAS	Shakira Austin	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	17.7	17.7	0.0%	9.2	9.2	0.0%	2.2	2.2	0.0%	35.1	35.1	0.0%
WAS	Sonia Citron	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	16.9	16.9	+0.1%	3.6	3.6	0.0%	4.2	4.2	0.0%	30.9	30.9	0.0%
WAS	Kiki Iriafen	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	12.6	12.6	0.0%	7.5	7.5	0.0%	1.6	1.6	0.0%	25.6	25.6	0.0%
WAS	Lauren Betts	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	6.8	6.8	0.0%	5.7	5.7	0.0%	1.1	1.1	0.0%	18.3	18.3	0.0%
WAS	Cotie McMahon	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.7	7.7	0.0%	3.5	3.5	0.0%	1.9	1.9	0.0%	16.5	16.5	0.0%
WAS	Michaela Onyenwere	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	7.3	7.3	0.0%	2.8	2.8	0.0%	1.8	1.8	0.0%	14.6	14.6	0.0%
WAS	Georgia Amoore	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	4.7	4.7	0.0%	0.9	0.9	0.0%	3.1	3.1	0.0%	10.6	10.6	0.0%
WAS	Angela Dugalic	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	2.7	2.7	0.0%	2.4	2.4	0.0%	0.7	0.7	0.0%	7.3	7.3	0.0%
WAS	Alicia Florez	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	2.5	2.5	0.0%	1.0	1.0	0.0%	1.4	1.4	0.0%	6.5	6.5	0.0%
WAS	Lucy Olsen	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	3.4	3.4	0.0%	0.7	0.7	0.0%	1.1	1.1	0.0%	6.3	6.3	0.0%

Best value plays

Market lines vs model projections · not betting advice

No value plays for this matchup.

No prop lines available for this slate.

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Olivia Miles	star	32.4	21.1	4.5	6.4	1.0	0.5	3.2	2.0	32.0	38.8	high	20%	20%
Natasha Howard	starter	30.3	15.5	8.7	3.8	2.1	0.8	2.4	0.1	28.0	36.7	high	0%	40%
Kayla McBride	star	33.2	19.4	2.7	1.8	1.8	0.2	1.2	3.6	23.9	30.8	medium	20%	0%
Courtney Williams	star	30.4	12.8	4.4	4.0	1.0	0.3	1.5	1.0	21.2	26.5	medium	10%	20%
Nia Coffey	starter	20.9	6.0	4.1	1.8	1.0	0.9	0.6	1.2	11.9	17.9	medium	10%	30%
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu	bench	11.6	4.3	2.1	1.1	0.9	0.5	0.8	0.1	7.5	11.2	low	20%	30%
Maya Caldwell	bench	13.6	3.9	2.3	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.7	7.1	9.7	low	20%	20%
Antonia Delaere	bench	10.4	2.8	0.8	0.9	0.4	0.0	0.4	0.7	4.5	6.0	low	20%	0%
Eliska Joklova	deep	5.3	2.0	1.1	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.5	0.0	4.2	5.5	low	20%	0%
Napheesa Collier	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	n/a	0%	0%
Chloe Bibby	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	low	0%	0%
Dorka Juhasz	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Liatu King	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
Shakira Austin	starter	27.4	17.7	9.3	2.2	0.7	1.1	2.6	0.5	29.2	35.1	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

Olivia Miles — 32.38 MIN · 21.11 PTS · 38.81 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	19.88	21.00	21.80	21.50	20.76	21.11
REB	4.65	4.40	4.60	4.50	4.46	4.51
AST	6.15	8.00	6.80	5.50	6.58	6.40
FG3M	1.65	3.00	2.30	1.00	1.90	1.96
FTM	4.18	3.20	3.30	5.50	3.74	3.78
STL	1.24	1.00	1.10	0.50	1.09	1.03
BLK	0.65	0.20	0.20	1.50	0.56	0.51
TOV	3.15	4.20	3.10	2.50	3.16	3.19
MIN	31.11	34.28	32.41	33.73	32.28	32.38

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.003
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Natasha Howard — 30.27 MIN · 15.52 PTS · 36.66 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	15.11	12.80	11.60	20.50	13.60	15.52
REB	7.83	8.20	7.60	10.50	7.92	8.70
AST	3.25	3.40	3.60	2.50	3.32	3.80
FG3M	0.08	0.20	0.10

Shakira Austin — 27.35 MIN · 17.73 PTS · 35.12 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	16.73	21.20	21.80	9.00	18.70	17.73
REB	9.58	9.80	9.90	12.00	9.88	9.25
AST	2.52	2.20	2.30	2.50	2.35	2.21
FG3M	0.52	0.60	0.60

Sonia Citron — 30.17 MIN · 16.86 PTS · 30.87 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	17.26	18.00	17.70	24.50	17.97	16.86
REB	3.90	4.60	3.90	3.00	3.94	3.65
AST	4.03	5.40	5.30	2.50	4.56	4.25
FG3M	1.32	2.60	1.70

Kayla McBride — 33.21 MIN · 19.42 PTS · 30.76 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.22	21.00	19.90	15.50	18.80	19.42
REB	3.19	1.80	1.80	4.00	2.65	2.71
AST	2.08	1.00	1.50	3.00	1.85	1.82
FG3M	2.92	4.40	4.00

Courtney Williams — 30.38 MIN · 12.82 PTS · 26.49 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.58	10.00	11.90	9.00	12.49	12.82
REB	5.08	4.20	4.10	3.00	4.30	4.39
AST	4.17	3.80	4.20	3.00	4.01	3.95
FG3M	1.17	0.60	0.80

Kiki Iriafen — 23.22 MIN · 12.60 PTS · 25.63 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.81	13.20	15.40	15.00	14.78	12.60
REB	9.06	8.80	9.10	9.00	8.97	7.55
AST	1.71	2.20	2.10	1.50	1.89	1.60
FG3M	0.35	0.20	0.30

Lauren Betts — 19.58 MIN · 6.79 PTS · 18.30 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.38	5.40	6.10	3.00	5.88	6.79
REB	4.32	6.40	5.90	3.00	4.96	5.67
AST	0.94	1.20	1.10	0.50	1.00	1.15
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Nia Coffey — 20.91 MIN · 6.03 PTS · 17.90 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.75	4.20	3.80	5.00	5.40	6.03
REB	4.61	3.00	2.40	6.50	3.82	4.11
AST	1.89	0.60	1.00	3.50	1.64	1.77
FG3M	1.31	1.00	0.80

Cotie McMahon — 20.65 MIN · 7.74 PTS · 16.51 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.75	8.20	8.20	11.00	7.80	7.74
REB	3.16	3.80	3.80	3.00	3.55	3.48
AST	1.97	1.40	1.90	3.00	1.97	1.94
FG3M	0.56	0.40	0.30

Michaela Onyenwere — 23.65 MIN · 7.31 PTS · 14.61 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.90	4.40	6.60	3.50	7.32	7.31
REB	3.07	2.80	2.80	2.00	2.84	2.80
AST	1.73	1.60	1.90	1.00	1.77	1.76
FG3M	1.33	0.80	1.30

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu — 11.57 MIN · 4.34 PTS · 11.21 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.00	4.00	3.70	1.50	3.67	4.34
REB	2.19	2.00	1.70	1.00	1.85	2.12
AST	0.70	0.40	0.80	0.00	0.66	1.05
FG3M	0.07	0.20	0.10

Georgia Amoore — 19.64 MIN · 4.66 PTS · 10.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.59	0.60	4.40	7.00	5.00	4.66
REB	1.15	0.60	0.90	1.50	1.03	0.95
AST	3.44	2.40	3.30	5.00	3.32	3.07
FG3M	1.09	0.20	1.20

Maya Caldwell — 13.57 MIN · 3.89 PTS · 9.71 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.03	1.40	3.70	4.50	3.70	3.89
REB	2.19	1.20	2.70	1.00	2.22	2.26
AST	1.06	0.60	0.80	1.00	0.91	0.95
FG3M	0.69	0.20	0.60

Angela Dugalic — 9.06 MIN · 2.66 PTS · 7.35 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.21	1.00	0.70	4.50	2.47	2.66
REB	2.76	1.60	1.50	2.50	2.27	2.41
AST	0.72	0.80	0.40	1.00	0.62	0.66
FG3M	0.14	0.20	0.10

Alicia Florez — 8.68 MIN · 2.49 PTS · 6.49 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.60	2.80	2.20	0.00	2.89	2.49
REB	1.56	1.00	0.60	0.00	1.16	0.99
AST	2.24	0.80	0.80	0.00	1.65	1.41
FG3M	0.32	0.20	0.30

Lucy Olsen — 7.85 MIN · 3.37 PTS · 6.31 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	3.80	2.80	2.50	2.99	3.37
REB	0.65	0.20	0.60	0.50	0.59	0.65
AST	1.06	0.60	0.80	1.50	0.97	1.08
FG3M	0.47	1.00	0.60

Antonia Delaere — 10.41 MIN · 2.80 PTS · 6.03 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.06	0.40	2.60	0.00	2.52	2.80
REB	0.74	0.40	0.90	0.00	0.72	0.77
AST	1.11	0.20	0.60	0.00	0.83	0.93
FG3M	0.71	0.00	0.60

Eliska Joklova — 5.31 MIN · 2.01 PTS · 5.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.00	2.20	1.90	0.00	1.86	2.01
REB	1.17	1.60	1.00	0.00	1.11	1.15
AST	1.06	0.80	0.50	0.00	0.84	1.04
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.053
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.915
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.905
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.016
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.012
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 31
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.823
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.116
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.041
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 32
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.958
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 30
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.963
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 27
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.122
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 34
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.900
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 36
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.998
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 29
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.040
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 25
h2h sample: 1 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 0.832
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.32

L50.27

L100.27

h2h0.04

def0.11

Factors

Games played: 17
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.085
Def adj (PTS): 0.959
Opp DefRtg: 103.40 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.31

L50.26

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.10

Factors

Games played: 35
h2h sample: 2 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.056
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.21

L50.31

L100.26

h2h0.07

def0.15

Factors

Games played: 18
h2h sample: 0 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.992
Minute scale: 1.022
Def adj (PTS): 0.954
Opp DefRtg: 102.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.33

L50.28

L100.28

h2h0.00

def0.11