Predictions

Thu, Jun 25, 2026

Data current — through Aug 16

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Projected box + fantasy points, with confidence and boom/bust for PTS.

Predicted final score

Dallas WingsAway

89.0

Record: 20-15 | 8th in standingsL10 Record: 3-7📺 KFAA

Las Vegas AcesHome

91.2

Record: 24-12 | 3rd in standingsL10 Record: 6-4📺 Vegas 34

Total

180.2

📺 NBA TV

Game lines unavailable: No event for DAL @ LVA

Injury report

5 Out applied to these projections.

DAL

Injury impact on predictions15 players moved

Team	Player	Reasons	Minutes Δ	Usage ×	PTS base	PTS adj	PTS Δ%	REB base	REB adj	REB Δ%	AST base	AST adj	AST Δ%	FPTS base	FPTS adj	FPTS Δ%
DAL	Awak Kuier	Teammates out: +8.0 min, 9% usage boost	8.0	1.1	7.3	7.9	+8.2%	3.7	3.8	+4.1%	1.1	1.4	+29.2%	17.1	19.0	+10.9%
DAL	Maddy Siegrist	Teammates out: +7.0 min, 8% usage boost	7.0	1.1	4.8	5.2	+7.5%	2.1	2.1	+2.9%	0.7	1.0	+31.5%	10.0	11.0	+10.7%
DAL	Alysha Clark	Teammates out: +7.0 min, 8% usage boost	7.0	1.1	3.2	3.4	+7.3%	1.7	1.7	+3.6%	0.7	1.0	+46.5%	7.1	8.2	+15.9%
DAL	Aziaha James	Teammates out: +6.3 min, 7% usage boost	6.3	1.1	6.8	7.3	+7.4%	2.6	2.7	+3.1%	1.2	1.6	+34.7%	13.6	15.3	+12.7%
DAL	Sug Sutton	Teammates out: +6.3 min, 7% usage boost	6.3	1.1	2.5	2.7	+7.6%	0.7	0.7	+2.9%	1.7	2.3	+37.6%	6.4	7.8	+21.9%
DAL	Li Yueru	Teammates out: +2.7 min, 3% usage boost	2.7	1.0	4.4	4.7	+7.3%	3.3	3.4	+3.1%	0.6	0.7	+9.7%	10.2	10.8	+5.3%
LVA	Jewell Loyd	Teammates out: +4.1 min, 8% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	4.1	1.1	8.3	8.8	+6.0%	2.2	2.3	+2.3%	1.4	1.6	+9.2%	15.6	16.6	+6.3%
LVA	Stephanie Talbot	Teammates out: +1.5 min, 3% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.5	1.0	3.0	3.1	+5.1%	2.0	2.0	+1.0%	0.8	0.8	+3.7%	8.2	8.5	+3.6%
LVA	NaLyssa Smith	Teammates out: +1.2 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.2	1.0	12.3	12.8	+4.2%	8.0	8.2	+2.1%	1.0	1.0	0.0%	26.1	26.8	+2.8%
LVA	Cheyenne Parker-Tyus	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	6.6	6.8	+3.9%	3.1	3.1	0.0%	0.8	0.8	+3.8%	13.8	14.2	+3.0%
LVA	Brianna Turner	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	2.4	2.5	+4.1%	2.6	2.6	0.0%	0.3	0.4	+2.9%	7.9	8.1	+2.2%
LVA	Kierstan Bell	Teammates out: +1.0 min, 2% usage boost · Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	1.0	1.0	2.7	2.9	+4.0%	1.7	1.7	0.0%	0.7	0.7	+3.0%	7.2	7.4	+2.9%
LVA	A'ja Wilson	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	26.5	25.8	-2.8%	9.3	9.1	-1.5%	3.0	2.8	-5.0%	47.8	46.4	-3.0%
LVA	Jackie Young	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	21.4	20.8	-2.8%	4.6	4.5	-1.5%	6.8	6.5	-5.0%	39.0	37.7	-3.4%
LVA	Chelsea Gray	Opp. weakened: +3% scoring, +2% threes	0.0	1.0	11.5	11.2	-2.7%	2.7	2.7	-1.5%	6.8	6.5	-5.0%	27.5	26.5	-3.7%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust
Jessica Shepard	star	29.1	12.9	10.5	4.3	0.6	0.1	1.6	0.0	27.7	34.5	medium	10%	20%
Paige Bueckers	star	30.9	18.7	3.7	4.5	0.8	0.3	2.0	1.6	26.9	32.0	high	10%	10%
Arike Ogunbowale	starter	27.4	14.1	2.9	2.8	0.8	0.0	1.8	1.4	19.9	23.5	medium	30%	20%
Azzi Fudd	starter	33.6	13.3	1.6	1.7	1.5	0.5	1.1	2.3	16.6	22.3	high	10%	20%
Awak Kuier	rotation	18.9	7.9	3.8	1.4	0.5	1.7	1.1	0.8	13.1	19.0	low	10%	10%
Aziaha James	bench	11.7	7.3	2.7	1.6	0.8	0.4	0.8	0.3	11.6	15.3	low	20%	10%
Maddy Siegrist	bench	10.1	5.2	2.1	1.0	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.8	8.3	11.0	medium	20%	0%
Li Yueru	bench	14.9	4.7	3.4	0.7	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.3	8.7	10.8	low	0%	40%
Alysha Clark	bench	14.2	3.4	1.7	1.0	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.5	6.2	8.2	low	10%	0%
Sug Sutton	rotation	8.2	2.7	0.7	2.3	0.3	0.1	0.6	0.2	5.7	7.8	medium	10%	50%
Odyssey Sims	rotation	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Alanna Smith	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	n/a	0%	0%
Haley Jones	bench	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%
Costanza Verona	deep	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a	0%	0%

Player	Tier	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	3PM	PRA	FPTS	Conf	Boom	Bust	Out	Pin MIN
A'ja Wilson	star	32.3	25.8	9.1	2.8	1.2	1.7	2.5	0.9	37.7	46.4	high

Per-player detail

Season / L5 / L10 / h2h blend, then pace × minutes

A'ja Wilson — 32.34 MIN · 25.77 PTS · 46.41 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	26.09	23.00	27.30	23.67	26.04	25.77
REB	9.61	9.40	9.60	7.00	9.23	9.14
AST	3.06	2.20	3.40	1.67	2.95	2.83
FG3M	1.00	0.80	1.00	0.33	0.91	0.90
FTM	6.73	6.20	8.10	3.33	6.86	6.78
STL	1.45	1.20	1.30	0.67	1.24	1.18
BLK	2.03	2.20	2.00	0.00	1.80	1.70
TOV	2.48	3.40	2.60	2.00	2.52	2.48
MIN	32.20	34.63	33.83	30.74	33.00	32.34

Factors

Games played: 33
h2h sample: 3 game(s)
Pace factor: 0.994
Minute scale: 0.980
Def adj (PTS): 1.000
Opp DefRtg: 107.80 vs league 107.80
Injury status: active

Component weights

season0.20

L50.30

L100.25

h2h0.10

def0.15

Jackie Young — 32.98 MIN · 20.76 PTS · 37.70 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	18.43	22.00	23.40	13.67	20.38	20.76
REB	4.40	2.80	4.70	5.00	4.41	4.49
AST	6.71	6.40	6.50	6.00	6.56	6.48
FG3M	2.23	3.20	2.80

Jessica Shepard — 29.09 MIN · 12.90 PTS · 34.45 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.21	10.20	12.80	19.67	13.55	12.90
REB	11.36	7.40	10.60	16.33	11.04	10.50
AST	5.18	3.80	5.10	7.67	5.08	4.33
FG3M	0.00	0.00

Paige Bueckers — 30.87 MIN · 18.74 PTS · 32.00 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	20.45	21.60	19.90	18.33	20.22	18.74
REB	4.12	3.80	3.90	3.33	3.95	3.66
AST	5.85	5.40	4.90	6.33	5.42	4.50
FG3M	1.76	1.80	1.80

NaLyssa Smith — 27.66 MIN · 12.77 PTS · 26.80 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	11.97	11.00	11.50	7.33	11.32	12.77
REB	6.46	9.60	7.40	9.67	7.51	8.20
AST	0.94	1.80	1.10	0.00	0.95	1.02
FG3M	0.03	0.00	0.00

Chelsea Gray — 32.88 MIN · 11.20 PTS · 26.51 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	12.29	9.60	12.20	6.67	11.32	11.20
REB	3.23	2.60	2.20	2.67	2.73	2.70
AST	7.06	6.40	6.20	8.67	6.79	6.51
FG3M	1.86	1.60	1.60

Arike Ogunbowale — 27.45 MIN · 14.09 PTS · 23.52 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	14.80	13.20	17.80	9.00	15.43	14.09
REB	3.14	3.00	3.60	1.67	3.22	2.93
AST	3.09	3.20	4.00	3.67	3.47	2.84
FG3M	1.71	0.80	1.50

Azzi Fudd — 33.62 MIN · 13.30 PTS · 22.30 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	13.10	12.00	12.70	16.00	13.02	13.30
REB	1.73	1.40	1.50	1.33	1.57	1.61
AST	1.83	1.60	2.00	1.33	1.81	1.66
FG3M	2.07	2.40	2.40

Awak Kuier — 18.91 MIN · 7.89 PTS · 18.99 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	5.63	7.00	5.90	9.00	6.32	7.89
REB	3.09	3.60	3.00	3.33	3.22	3.82
AST	0.94	1.20	0.90	0.33	0.93	1.37
FG3M	0.59	0.80	0.40

Jewell Loyd — 25.26 MIN · 8.84 PTS · 16.59 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	8.06	7.80	7.40	12.67	8.28	8.84
REB	2.32	1.60	2.30	2.00	2.22	2.26
AST	1.44	1.60	1.50	1.00	1.42	1.55
FG3M	1.71	1.40	1.50

Aziaha James — 11.72 MIN · 7.26 PTS · 15.35 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.06	8.60	5.40	6.67	6.13	7.26
REB	2.41	3.00	2.20	2.00	2.40	2.70
AST	1.21	1.20	0.90	1.67	1.11	1.63
FG3M	0.35	0.40	0.20

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus — 12.94 MIN · 6.85 PTS · 14.24 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	4.91	3.80	6.00	8.67	5.51	6.85
REB	2.48	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.59	3.06
AST	0.61	0.00	0.40	2.00	0.66	0.82
FG3M	0.17	0.00	0.20

Maddy Siegrist — 10.07 MIN · 5.18 PTS · 11.04 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	6.09	5.20	6.50	5.00	6.10	5.18
REB	2.69	2.80	2.60	3.00	2.68	2.15
AST	0.84	1.40	1.20	0.33	0.94	0.96
FG3M	0.78	0.60	1.00

Li Yueru — 14.94 MIN · 4.69 PTS · 10.78 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.31	3.40	3.30	2.50	3.17	4.69
REB	2.69	2.00	2.10	2.50	2.39	3.36
AST	0.46	0.00	0.40	1.00	0.46	0.68
FG3M	0.27	0.20	0.20

Stephanie Talbot — 13.63 MIN · 3.10 PTS · 8.54 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.36	2.60	2.90	2.00	2.94	3.10
REB	2.50	1.20	1.10	2.67	2.02	2.02
AST	1.00	0.00	0.40	1.33	0.82	0.85
FG3M	0.44	0.40	0.40

Alysha Clark — 14.18 MIN · 3.40 PTS · 8.23 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.14	2.20	2.60	2.00	2.37	3.40
REB	1.23	1.80	1.30	0.67	1.26	1.72
AST	0.50	0.60	0.60	0.33	0.54	1.04
FG3M	0.36	0.20	0.40

Brianna Turner — 17.69 MIN · 2.52 PTS · 8.06 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	1.76	1.60	2.60	1.00	1.97	2.52
REB	2.24	2.00	2.50	0.00	2.17	2.62
AST	0.24	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.28	0.36
FG3M	0.00	0.00	0.00

Sug Sutton — 8.16 MIN · 2.70 PTS · 7.80 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	3.55	1.40	1.50	3.50	2.83	2.70
REB	0.85	1.00	0.70	1.00	0.78	0.70
AST	2.20	1.40	1.70	2.00	1.93	2.34
FG3M	0.30	0.20	0.10

Kierstan Bell — 11.33 MIN · 2.85 PTS · 7.42 FPTS

Ensemble components

Each stat is a weighted blend of season / L5 / L10 / h2h, then multiplied by pace × minute scale.

Stat	Season	L5	L10	h2h	Raw blend	× Pace × Min
PTS	2.04	1.80	3.20	4.00	2.66	2.85
REB	1.61	2.00	1.80	0.67	1.66	1.69
AST	0.70	0.80	0.50	1.00	0.64	0.68
FG3M	0.43	0.40	0.70

Predictions

Predicted final score

Injury report

DAL

LVA

Best value plays

DAL

LVA

Per-player detail